Please do something about it already.

It took me 12 weeks into savage to get my first BiS piece coffer, had to buy everything else so far with books and I have won exactly 1 Crystalline Glaze in this entire tier. It's frustrating but that's just the way it is sometimes.

took me over a year to see the maiming boots in WoD
and i wasnt even Drg when they dropped so i didnt even get it
RNG is rough

Well and I have with mounts usually the luck that I am under 10 dice and usually the last one who gets a mount.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

If I'm doing maths right on my phone calculator... (0.875) (x^y) (32) = 0.014 = only a 1.4% chance of doing 32 runs and not getting it once.

0.875 being your 7-in-8 chance of not getting it on a single run.

Bad luck just statistically happens sometimes.

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The math isn't quite right since there's 3 drops per run so they had 96 chances rather than 32. They're also likely rolling against more the 7 other people. Going by what they just said in the last post they were usually rolling against 10-15 people.

It's also muddied by not being a 1 in n players roll so the base chance of losing isn't exactly (n-1)/n. E.g. rolling a 2 has a chance of winning and 98 has a chance of losing, but 2 has a much lower chance of winning than 98 does of losing. The same can be said for 3 and 97, 4 and 96, etc, so the overall weighting is unevenly skewed towards losing on average. Over time and looking at all players rolls it would be a (n-1)/n probability, but from the perspective of a single player, their probability would depend heavily on their individual rolls and only rolls above 90 would have a reasonable chance of actually winning.

All that said, yeah that's still unlucky to not have won it in 32 runs.

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Originally Posted by Frizze

So... you want them to do something about your having bad luck? Id love it if they could fix my luck too. Ive run orbonne at least 60 times(going back to when it was current) and i havent won the mini yet. Ill keep at it, and eventually it probly pops up in a mogtome event. I hope to have it before then, but i certainly wouldnt skip it because of something stupid like pride.

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Don't even get me started on how many lottery tickets I've bought.

I haven't even gotten a line in bingo. Both in and out of this game.

funny, whenever I run nier most of the dresses end up in the dirt because noone seems to need them anymore.. lol

this reminds me of that iconic Zepla Din rant where it took 90+ runs to get the hairstyle she wanted. There should definitely be a way to obtain the gear with coins IE totems and mounts, as currently Im still hunting for my ivalice ranger legs and these arent trials these raids take like 30 min to clear varying on parties. i say 10 for chest, 7 for legs 5 for boots and Hat 3 for gloves and belt.

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

The math isn't quite right since there's 3 drops per run so they had 96 chances rather than 32. They're also likely rolling against more the 7 other people.

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I incorporated that. Three chests per run means that three out of 24 people are leaving that raid with a chest, so you have a 1-in-8 chance of being one of those three people in any single run (assuming everyone rolls - your odds can only improve if some are skipping). Therefore 32 runs = 32 1-in-8 chances.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

I incorporated that. Three chests per run means that three out of 24 people are leaving that raid with a chest, so you have a 1-in-8 chance of being one of those three people in any single run (assuming everyone rolls - your odds can only improve if some are skipping). Therefore 32 runs = 32 1-in-8 chances.

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The rolls are independent so they technically can't be lumped together like that. I will definitely grant you that it's reliant on a person who wins deleting their winning coffer before rolling on the next one so that's an unlikely scenario and can be discounted from the probability calculation but it would technically be a (23/24)^3 chance to fail for one run. 7/8 is a good enough approximation assuming all players rolled and didn't delete their coffers.

This way of looking at it is still not the whole picture, however, because it doesn't take into account the competing roll situation where you have to include the chance of your own roll being good enough to win compared to other rolls. Yes, this averages out over time to the above calculation when accounting for everyone's rolls and 1000's of attempts, but we only have a sample size of 32 here so the probability of you rolling high enough to have a reasonable chance to win becomes a significant factor from an individual player perspective. Here's how quickly the chance of winning on a given roll against 23 other players drops off (stolen from a reddit source since I didn't want to actually create a spreadsheet just for this):

https://i.imgur.com/Q6Gs5PG.png

Even if all 3 of your rolls were 90 for example, you'd still have a roughly 78% chance of not winning any of them. (I say roughly because only the first roll would follow that table above since it's against 23 players and the probability would be slightly higher for the second and third rolls against 22 and 21 players.)

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

Even if all 3 of your rolls were 90 for example, you'd still have a roughly 78% chance of not winning any of them.

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That's ... Pretty sobering.