Red Mage Opener confusion

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Silverquick

Well that quite frankly is why, I don't make the decision whether to use Acceleration or not until after my first cast.

If it procs on the first cast, you don't need to use Acceleration at that point which makes it moot, and you will get to your first Melee combo faster because you waited on it.

I can see Rongway's point in attempting to stablilize your Rotation for Raid buffs, but I just don't think you can do a predictable opener or even playstyle with RDM because of the Procs.

---

Holding acceleration doesn't "get you to first melee" faster. Quickest case scenario is still 8th gcd, because the quickest case scenario is Acceleration's guarantee of 3 procs.

Holding it is actually a 25% chance to delay it until the 10th GCD with mana overcap from Manaficiation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Silverquick

Well that quite frankly is why, I don't make the decision whether to use Acceleration or not until after my first cast.

If it procs on the first cast, you don't need to use Acceleration at that point which makes it moot, and you will get to your first Melee combo faster because you waited on it.

I can see Rongway's point in attempting to stablilize your Rotation for Raid buffs, but I just don't think you can do a predictable opener or even playstyle with RDM because of the Procs.

---

This kind of reasoning is why people ingame don't take RDM seriously. It's an extremely consistent class now that Acceleration gives 3 stacks, to the point where you can predict to the GCD when you'll enter any given melee combo before the fight starts, depending on whether you choose to delay Manafication to after the 9th in-fight GCD or not. As outlined on the first page, several posts above, you can easily outline four separate openers depending on when you want to enter your first melee combo (to generate more mana/use Swiftcast earlier, or to get more of your combo under raid buffs) and to give greater benefit from Embolden to your DPS depending on what GCD you use Embolden during. Holding onto Acceleration until after the first GCD is wasting roughly 15 seconds of its cooldown for no reason and throwing your entire opener (and likely the rest of the fight) into chaos, also for no reason.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kabooa

Holding acceleration doesn't "get you to first melee" faster. Quickest case scenario is still 8th gcd, because the quickest case scenario is Acceleration's guarantee of 3 procs.

Holding it is actually a 25% chance to delay it until the 10th GCD with mana overcap from Manaficiation.

---

I don't even think that's true.

Because a Proc at high level procs three times in a row just like Acceleration.

So if your opening cast procs, you have 3 in a row. Then at that point if the next cast after that doesn't proc, the you can hit Acceleration... or it might just proc again so you've got another 3 procs coming.

This is why I said what I did.

I understand trying to "force" stabilize it per se the way Rongway is talking about... but that still doesn't change how fast or slow you're going to end up in your melee combos, because they are completely unpredictable.

Which in my opinion is why RDM DPS has such a huge disparity between high and low damage. The Rotation just does not follow a set pattern because of the way the Job and Procs work.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Silverquick

I don't even think that's true.

---

The wonderful part about math is you don't have to agree with it.

It's either right or it's wrong, and in this case, you cannot get to melee from 0/0 faster than after the 8th GCD, which requires 3 procs that Acceleration guarantees.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Silverquick

Because a Proc at high level procs three times in a row just like Acceleration.

So if your opening cast procs, you have 3 in a row. Then at that point if the next cast after that doesn't proc, the you can hit Acceleration... or it might just proc again so you've got another 3 procs coming.

---

That's not how probability works. There is a 0.5^3 chance that you will get three natural procs in a row--a mere 12.5%.

If we represent procs as bits (0s and 1s) with 1 being a proc, we get the following possibilities (considering just Verslowspells cast, and without regard to mana, for which the math would look similar anyway):

000 - no procs, 1110 potency

001 - 1 proc, 1130 potency (one Jolt can be replaced by a Verfastspell)
010 - 1 proc, 1130 potency
100 - 1 proc, 1130 potency

011 - 2 procs, 1150 potency (two Jolts can be replaced)
101 - 2 procs, 1150 potency
110 - 2 procs, 1150 potency

111 - 3 procs, 1170 potency (three Jolts can be replaced)

Add up all these potencies and divide by 8 (the number of possible outcomes) and then divide by 3 (the number of Verslowspells in each case), we get 380, the expected value of a Verslowspell if it has a 50% chance to upgrade a Jolt to a Verfastspell. Acceleration forces the last outcome, where all three Verslowspells are guaranteed to be worth 390.

We didn't have to do all that math though. Expected Value of every Verslowspell is 370 (the Verslowspell's potency) plus 10 (50% of the difference between a Jolt and a Verfastspell) because there is a 50% chance to proc.

With Acceleration, the Expected Value of a Verslowspell is 370 + 20 (100% the difference between Jolt and a Verfastspell). This is a gain of 10 potency per Verslowspell.

Using it later only shifts which three Verslowspells have their expected values boosted. You don't gain by holding it to see if you can get natural procs, because there's a 50% chance that it will naturally not-proc, giving an Actual Value of 370+0, and a 50% chance that it will naturally proc, giving an Actual Value of 370+20, and when we average these together, that's still the Expected Value of 370+10.

So instead of having a string of five Verslowspells with expected values: 390, 390, 390, 380, 380 from using Acceleration ASAP; waiting only gives you expected values: 380, 390, 390, 390, 380; or 380, 380, 390, 390, 390. The number of forced procs hasn't changed, just where they lie.

It's better to use Acceleration sooner so you get more uses out of it than to hold it and hope for natural procs.

Quote:

---

I understand trying to "force" stabilize it per se the way Rongway is talking about... but that still doesn't change how fast or slow you're going to end up in your melee combos, because they are completely unpredictable.

---

???

Your first melee combo is 100% predictable.

And even after the first one, there isn't actually that much RNG to RDM.

You get 35 mana refunded per combo. If it's before a Manafication, it's effectively a refund of 70 mana. Use Acceleration ~45s into the battle for three more forced procs. Note that in a proper opener, with Acceleration used 10s before pull, Acceleration cools down 14s earlier than if you had begun the battle with just Verslowspell-Verotherslowspell before deciding whether to use Acceleration. Use Acceleration again on cooldown. So what if there was a 50% chance to proc anyway; Acceleration still increases the Expected Value of three Verslowspells from 370+(0.5(300-280))=380 to 370+(1.0(300-280))=390.

Quote:

---

Which in my opinion is why RDM DPS has such a huge disparity between high and low damage. The Rotation just does not follow a set pattern because of the way the Job and Procs work.

---

RDM play is predictable enough. It is 100% predictable in the opener, and with all the rebates and forced procs, Jolt should account for no more than about 30% of your hard casts throughout a fight, much less than the 50% raw probability of just considering Verslowspells without the rest of the RDM action set.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kabooa

The wonderful part about math is you don't have to agree with it.

It's either right or it's wrong, and in this case, you cannot get to melee from 0/0 faster than after the 8th GCD, which requires 3 procs that Acceleration guarantees.

---

didn't we allready have this discussion when like 5 different people tried to explain to him the differences between dps/adps/rdps ? pretty sure "not agreeing with math" is like a hobby to him...

Unfortunately, yes.

Acceleration exists for consistency in the rotation.
Not to counter a wrong fortune-teller scenario.

Acceleration also guarantees a proc.
There is a huge difference between someone that will wing it because Red Mage is not predictable over someone who runs content and likes to optimize and see big numbers.
Using acceleration other then in an opener is situational but i would say is not the best to do. (or you really mess up our balance)

And OP, it does take time to get used to, it did for me but after practice you should get the hang of it.
You could also modify it slightly or choose a different opener. I know balance discord has a few listed.
Myself i have used the X10 as it seems to be prefered. But i am now back again to my Shadowbringer main which is DNC.

As a Red Mage under Level 70, is there a reason not to go with something like: Embolden > Contre Sixte > Fleche > Swiftcast > Acceleration > VerAero > VerStone > VerThunder > VerFire > VerAero > VerStone > Manafication > Corps-a-Corps > Melee trio > Displacement for an opening?