Real Math and Sq Enix Math - the twain shall never meet

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Originally Posted by Kyros

This is why it's rather common to see strings of 5x fails when statistically that should only happen once in a blue moon.

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You are assuming the 5x fails in a roll will be "spaced out" ... that's not how randomness works.

Well here's the dev response: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Random-Comment

Do with it what you will

http://www.kodyaz.com/images/pics/ra...bert-comic.jpg

I'm no math expert here, but, isn't there an essential difference between a 93% chance of success, and a 93% rate of success?

There was a dev post on this awhile back, its surely buried in the 29000 threads in general discussion now, but its there.

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Originally Posted by Bishop81

You are assuming the 5x fails in a roll will be "spaced out" ... that's not how randomness works.

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No actually, that is exactly how it should work, averaged over time. You can calculate how often does X scenario should present itself fairly easily. If it isn't behaving as expected, then your seed has a bias and is not truly random.

Also, RNG seeds can have quirks to them, because again: not truly random. Take for example this number sets: 25 50 75, and 50 50 50 repeat over and over. Both average to 50 and you can say that both are truly random, but one of them is not really functioning as a RNG for our purposes.

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Originally Posted by Kyros

No actually, that is exactly how it should work, averaged over time. You can calculate how often does X scenario should present itself fairly easily. If it isn't behaving as expected, then your seed has a bias and is not truly random.

Also, RNG seeds can have quirks to them, because again: not truly random. Take for example this number sets: 25 50 75, and 50 50 50 repeat over and over. Both average to 50 and both and you can say that both are truly random, but one of them is not really functioning as a RNG for our purposes.

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Random by definition means "no pattern". Having the 5x fails in a roll spaced out as a characteristic would be a pattern.

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Originally Posted by Seig345

I'm no math expert here, but, isn't there an essential difference between a 93% chance of success, and a 93% rate of success?

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Rate is just chance averaged over many trials.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

There was a dev post on this awhile back, its surely buried in the 29000 threads in general discussion now, but its there.

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I posted it :P

It's 3 posts above yours

I have been crafting and have gotten NQ so many times while having 98% and 99% chance of HQ. It is just very frustrating with the RNG. R quad it just doesn't make sense in the Lore. A master crafter would not fail that much at making HQ when they have been doing it forever and are a "Master" in it.