Mastercraft Demimateria

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Originally Posted by Nyalia

I would certainly immensely appreciate it! It's sad sometimes that this forum has no private message feature...

But anyway, 0.62 per desynth would mean 31% chance of yielding MCDs, which is 1.5x as good as what I was experiencing/expecting. My personal dataset for tools is pretty small (only about 50 desynths), but I've only ever gotten ~6 MCDs from it. I guess I should go back to it - my math tells me that, with my old estimated yield of 0.4 and a success rate of only 82%, and my server's current MCD price of 330k, I'd make 160k an hour (net profit) crafting MCD turn-ins (209k/hr with HQ Tinker's Calm, 250k/hr at 100% success rate). Using your numbers, I get a profit per hour of 385k at 88 dSkill, 463k at 88 dSkill with HQ Tinker's Calm, and 525k at 100% success rate).

Hmm, at least I think that math is right. If so, 500k/hr sounds pretty nice!

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I would say your numbers are on track with the theoretical yield of MCD from artisan tools.

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I would certainly immensely appreciate it! It's sad sometimes that this forum has no private message feature...

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Removing breaks:

Needles: 428
Rose Gold Nugget: 159 / 37%
Rose Gold Ingot: 33 / 8%
Fieldcraft 3: 92 / 21%
Master desynth: 144 / 34%

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Total Mastercraft demi 275 / 64%

I don't have NQ/HQ info for the nuggets and the ingots but it's like 40ish percent. I cound any HQ there as a free bonus. You can get some seriously streaky runs. I've seen 7 total mastercraft from 22 needles and 21 from 22 so...yeah. You need a bit of fault tolerance.

Thank you so much for this! I'm still trying to understand yield rates here, but it's clear tools are better than specs, period. Specs appear to have about half the chance of giving MCDs, and give half as many MCDs, for only half the materials.

I made this thread looking for advice, and I got numbers and math instead. Stay awesome, guys!

Will find time this weekend to mass craft Artisan Needles then.

From my point of view the problem making money with Mastercraft Demimaterias is you rely a lot in luck. You can spend a nice amount of time obtaining three weapons, then desynth and get 3 or more MCD, or get 0. It's a bit discouraging. If you do that every day eventually you'll get the expected average, but with big differences.

Anyway it is a very good way or making gil, and since they sell a lot, if you spend a lot of time and have a lot for sale, even then they sell quickly. Luck is not that important if you desynth a lot, so for people capable of spending a lot of time it's relatively better than for ones that can't or don't like to spend that much time.

Yeah, making only three weapons a day is setting the stage for being disappointed (or very happy). But, given that it takes me ~15 minutes to make each weapon (8 turn-ins per weapon, ~30 steps per synth using all NQ mats, 3 seconds per step), I can understand not wanting to make the 20+ weapons a day (5 hours of pure synthing) it takes to give you a more average amount of money.

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Originally Posted by KendraDarkstar

Removing breaks:

Needles: 428
Rose Gold Nugget: 159 / 37%
Rose Gold Ingot: 33 / 8%
Fieldcraft 3: 92 / 21%
Master desynth: 144 / 34%

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Total Mastercraft demi 275 / 64%

I don't have NQ/HQ info for the nuggets and the ingots but it's like 40ish percent. I cound any HQ there as a free bonus. You can get some seriously streaky runs. I've seen 7 total mastercraft from 22 needles and 21 from 22 so...yeah. You need a bit of fault tolerance.

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Interesting, but you mention removing breaks. I'm running on a current theory that as your success rate increases, the odds of geting the rare drops also increases. I've been breaking artisan toold since I was at about 65%, and i'm up to 80%ish (my desynths kill is still onl 85-90ish) and I get almost no mastercraft demi's, ever. Most people who desynth, say 20 at a time, end up with up to 30 mastercraft demimateria. My friends conducting the same test, also don't break these tools until they were at 100 desynth skill, and also experienced the extremely high mastercraft Demimateria rate.

Food for thought.

I'm rather sure this is wrong. At 100% success rates for bridesmaid's shoes, I've had runs of 10 FC3s in a row. If I were to look at just one of those runs, I could go "Man, I'm really lucky!" but overall, the average of 0.16-0.2 FC3s per desynth holds up.

Your experiences are most likely a mix of selection bias (discounting successful people and focusing on the unsuccessful people), clustering illusion (drawing patterns from small runs of good/bad luck), and insensitivity to sample size (expecting the same or smaller variation in smaller samples compared to larger samples where in reality, there is larger variation in smaller samples). Mostly that last one - you're comparing your experiences with the experiences of several of your friends. Having a lucky streak with your smaller sample is much more likely than all of your friends all having lucky streaks. The bigger the sample size, the less the variance, the closer to the expected value. The smaller the sample size, the more likely to be far more AND far less lucky.

Back when FC3s were hard to come by, I would desynth Summoning Bells for 20k each to level my BSM, starting at a 24% chance. I had many unlucky streaks and broke far more than the expected 3 in 4 (I think I averaged to breaking 9 in 10). However, when I did succeed, I only once obtained FC3 demimateria, out of ~20 successes (and ~200 failures). If your theory was correct, I'd have seen far more than a single FC3.

tl;dr: RNG is RNG.

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Originally Posted by Mishini_Dracoto

~cut for size~ I'm running on a current theory that as your success rate increases, the odds of geting the rare drops also increases. ~cut~

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I've kept a bit of a mental track of where my MC rate rate lies as I've progressed through the desynthing. I landed on 61 +- 3% very very quickly even when my desyn was down near 77%. It's now 96.5ish (I forget the exact number, haven't done any in a few days) and my expected yields over large quantities are still matching my aggregate numbers.

To be clear - within the same level of desynth (it was 93 or 94) I did a 22 desynth run where I got 7 mastercraft, and a 22 desynth run where I got 21. They were back to back.

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Originally Posted by KendraDarkstar

I've kept a bit of a mental track of where my MC rate rate lies as I've progressed through the desynthing. I landed on 61 +- 3% very very quickly even when my desyn was down near 77%. It's now 96.5ish (I forget the exact number, haven't done any in a few days) and my expected yields over large quantities are still matching my aggregate numbers.

To be clear - within the same level of desynth (it was 93 or 94) I did a 22 desynth run where I got 7 mastercraft, and a 22 desynth run where I got 21. They were back to back.

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Those #'s aren't generic with enough testing to prove my theory wrong though. Even all of the Artisan tool desynthesis I have done the entire time I've been doing it, would only be considered a small sample, but if I compared all of my total experiences from this behavior to say, the behavior of converting i90 crafted equipment to Tier IV materia. I had a friend do a SB run and get all Tier 3 materia, where I had only gotten Tier IV materia, and I didn't even believe him when he got mad at me. that gear as roughly an 80% conversion rate into Tier IV materia, so as he kept doing it, eventually, he started seeing normal numbers. I have NEVER seen what any of my friends consider to be normal #'s. Which is possible.

Another really old Dev post regarding the games RNG referenced a book called Thinking, Fast and Slow, and I have actually picked it up as of a couple weeks ago. Haven't spent a lot of time in it, and it does address things such as, humans are terrible intuitive statisticians. MY Heuristic on this topic is incredibly different than anybody else I know, that I am of wildly different opinions when it comes to this subject.