Treasure Hunter Testing

[Motenten]

I'm guessing the total/kills*slots should be 100/2004? It would raise the percentage, along with the margin of error, so that it would, in fact, overlap with the double-to-instance ratio.

Yeah, mistake there. The overlap is pretty miniscule, though: 0.07%.

Edited above post with corrected values.

There are a few points that I find worrisome with this model though, for example the aforementioned higher base chance on certain second drops. Personally I don't think a low cap is very likely, but it is possible.

Actually, the more I think about it the more it makes sense. The nominal drop rate on the hides is something like 1%. If the chance of an additional drop was also 1%, seeing a second drop in the pool would be almost unheard of, never mind 3 at once. Given that the chance of the first item to drop is already low, giving the second drop at least a 10% chance isn't going to dramatically change the overall drop rate, but will at least make it not completely impossible to get multiple drops of an item.

Also, it doesn't explain why we get the results that we did on Colibris, or, for that matter, how TH even increases these drops.

Granted.

According to that, TH would only affect the first item in a multi-drop scenario, the rest would be determined by that new drop rate itself.

That's both correct and confusingly wrong. TH increases the drop rate of the first item. The chance at a second item is based on the drop rate of the first item (with possible lower cap), therefore TH must inherently increase the drop rate of the second item as well. It's just not necessary to extract them as independent elements of the calculation, though you can use the drop rate of the second item to confirm the first.

This should be quite accurate to test on Battering Rams, only getting a large sample size might be a bit bothersome on those.

Got tons of them in Abyssea La Theine

One more question, are the drops, as listed above, in the order they appeared in in the game?

No. I can get that from the raw data log, though....

Slot order:

dhalmel meat
dhalmel meat
giant femur
dhalmel hair
papaka grass
dhalmel hide
dhalmel hide
dhalmel hide

Confirmed all combinations. Femur is after meat and before hair; hair is after femur and before grass; grass is after hair and before hide.