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I know a certain someone who responds often, and I would not even mind their input on this, as I'm genuinely curious where this information comes from.
I don't have data handy but the statement you referred to has always been screaming to me "wishful thinking."
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The only thing that even comes close, is SE reports having over 25, 28, 30 million "players" except this number to me, only represents how many people have tried, and quit FFXIV, which is not a number I would like to tout.
you're correct here, they talk about the number of accounts, not just active users. For any MMO, not just FFXIV, active users (we'll say people who have played within a 30 day period) i'd estimate is somewhere between 10-20%, or between 3 and 6 mil of those 30+ million "players" on average. which seems reasonable given server capacities. if there were actually 30 million active users they'd need a lot more servers than they have now lol.