What the hell is wrong with crafting ?

[Sapereaude]

Still... i mostly get the HQ when i'm below the 50%, or the game is trolling me or 5% is huge in FFXIV... dunno.

Trust us when we tell you that your horribly biased human tendency to overstate your wins and understate your losses is what bred this post.

The math is sound, learn to craft around it.

[Codek]

The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

[Lexxuk]

Talking about RNG in this game... at the gathering point with 95% success rate, I failed 4 times in a row. Yeah, I know that there's 5% failure rate... but 5% failure rate 4 streak in a row? Instead of success rate of 95% 4 times in a row? /facepalm

The game doesn't have a memory. Each time you strike there is a 95% chance you will score and 5% you'll miss, the next strike, 95/5, the next, 95/5, so you could do 100 strikes and miss every one of them because it's not remembering that you missed 5 times out of the last 100 shots. It's rolling a big 100 sided dice every time.........

[Baratan]

The thing is, you can't "Take data to prove it". That doesn't make sense because any data gather is after-the fact. A WoW developer once wrote a post on their forums about a player being called a cheater because he rolled 100 ten times in a row. The developers response was not only is that mathematically possible, but because of how many times people roll on their servers every given day, hundreds, thousands, millions of times. Not only is it mathematically possible, it's virtually guaranteed to happen from time to time. If it never happened, you'd know the RNg wasn't random enough.

Luck doesn't exist.

Yes, in fact, it does. Perception is reality. If I win the lottery 100 times in a row, I will feel lucky. Saying lucky doesn't exist is like saying happiness or sadness doesn't exist.

[Lexxuk]

Replace Justice with Luck......

Death: Humans need fantasy to *be* human. To be the place where the falling angel meets the rising ape.

Susan: With tooth fairies? Hogfathers?

Death: Yes. As practice, you have to start out learning to believe the little lies.

Susan: So we can believe the big ones?

Death: Yes. Justice, mercy, duty. That sort of thing.

Susan: They're not the same at all.

Death: You think so? Then take the universe and grind it down to the finest powder, and sieve it through the finest sieve, and then show me one atom of justice, one molecule of mercy. And yet, you try to act as if there is some ideal order in the world. As if there is some, some rightness in the universe, by which it may be judged.

Susan: But people have got to believe that, or what's the point?

Death:
You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?

There is no such thing as luck, tis all a lie, Death said so.

[Jacosta]

Not sure if anyone explained it this way (too lazy to read thru) but there is a 95% CHANCE it will be HQ. With the 5% one, there was still a chance it would be HQ (although a small chance). The % isn't supposed to be a score where if you go past a certain point then it's quaranteed to be HQ---the only time it's guaranteed is when it's at 100%. Hope that clears things up

[Stormsoul]

I think this game borrowed the rng code from Fire Emblem.

LOL. this is what i've been thinking as well.