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  1. #1
    Player
    Lyein's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    78
    Character
    Lyein Elheim
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Thaumaturge Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by dragonflyseksparade View Post
    What? 5/7 success is 70%...........
    Sorry, I was unclear. I got 11 attempts to improve quality per sythesis, each attempt had 70% chance of success. Statistically I should end up with about 7 or 8 successes each run. After 7 successful attempts I have 100% chance at HQ. With 6 attempts successful the HQ chance is usually around 80-90% (depending on how many 'good's I get) and with just 5 the chance is around 40-50% for HQ.

    So if I hit average, above average or even slightly below-average luck I should always HQ. But fully half of my results were NQ, the result of chain-bad-luck.
    (0)

  2. #2
    Player
    dragonflyseksparade's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    232
    Character
    Dragonfly Seksparade
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Lyein View Post
    Sorry, I was unclear. I got 11 attempts to improve quality per sythesis, each attempt had 70% chance of success. Statistically I should end up with about 7 or 8 successes each run. After 7 successful attempts I have 100% chance at HQ. With 6 attempts successful the HQ chance is usually around 80-90% (depending on how many 'good's I get) and with just 5 the chance is around 40-50% for HQ.

    So if I hit average, above average or even slightly below-average luck I should always HQ. But fully half of my results were NQ, the result of chain-bad-luck.
    Oh I gotcha. SE has done an incredible job making an algorithm to troll crafters effectively lol
    (0)
    Primary Class: Green number maker
    Best WHM, NA
    twitch.tv/brown_diva

  3. #3
    Player
    Simaril's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    405
    Character
    Simaril Ratbane
    World
    Goblin
    Main Class
    Carpenter Lv 50
    Other types of WTF DoH moments (basically all user error):

    -realizing you have GP gear instead of CP gear equipped, when you really could have used a few CP
    -realizing you have a low level item you were trying to finish a spirit bond for some crappy materia, after you fail to HQ or complete an item
    -forgetting how what you need to complete the progress of an item... i.e. you could have completed in the number of turns you expected IF you used craftsmanship food, or as a differnt DoH
    -acidentally using a macro you designed for cheap easy items on something expensive and important
    (1)

  4. #4
    Player
    dragonflyseksparade's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    232
    Character
    Dragonfly Seksparade
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 50
    Goldsmith's turbine, 100% HQ chance with 30 durability to spare and only need 1 successful synthesis to complete. Failed 3 straight synthesis and got nothing.

    In terms of statistics: (0.1)^3 = 1 in 1000 chance.
    (1)

  5. #5
    Player
    Capita's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    318
    Character
    Souma Kisa
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 50
    My worst usually comes during a long crafting session (grinding 3x turn-in leves). My button presses become mechanical, and I accidentally waste an Excellent rating in favor of something like Steady Hand, and only have 1 stack of Greater Strides left, which is wasted on the Poor rating that comes after.
    (3)
    i7 3770K @ 4.5 GHz -- GTX 780 Ti SLI

    3102 Survivor

  6. #6
    Player
    Ksenia's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    1,100
    Character
    Ksenia Solo
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Weaver Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Capita View Post
    My worst usually comes during a long crafting session (grinding 3x turn-in leves). My button presses become mechanical, and I accidentally waste an Excellent rating in favor of something like Steady Hand, and only have 1 stack of Greater Strides left, which is wasted on the Poor rating that comes after.
    I get this pattern when making Yarns and cloth. You design a system to make full use of your CP and the condition status goes out of its way to defy the system you established.

    My system is Steady Hand, Advanced touch, Great strides, Advanced Touch, Great Strides, Advanced Touch, Careful Synthesis II. All of the Good and Excellent Conditions show up on the great Strides. I learned to ignore it because it defines 5% of a stack and isn't worth fighting.
    (0)

  7. #7
    Player
    Matsume's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    1,602
    Character
    Master Matsume
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Miner Lv 50
    Accidentally crafting Electrum Wristlets and Electrum Rings instead of Wristlets and Rings OF CRAFTING, because the graphics look too man similar and the "of crafting" is covered up by the mouse over box...
    (1)

  8. #8
    Player
    DragonSlayer45's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    870
    Character
    Adrian Ryder
    World
    Cactuar
    Main Class
    Ninja Lv 100
    Crafting a HQ weapon but not risking it at 50% but I don't get the HQ.
    However, later, I don't even bother raising the HQ at all (read: Literally at 1%) and I get it as HQ.

    wtf.
    (0)

  9. #9
    Player
    Matsume's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    1,602
    Character
    Master Matsume
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Miner Lv 50


    can anyone tell me WTF is wrong with this picture???
    (0)

  10. #10
    Player
    Capita's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    318
    Character
    Souma Kisa
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Matsume View Post


    can anyone tell me WTF is wrong with this picture???
    That looks about right. I've made a lot of money selling Dew Threads and Diremite Webs I got from leve rewards.
    (0)
    i7 3770K @ 4.5 GHz -- GTX 780 Ti SLI

    3102 Survivor

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