Drop rate craziness!!!

[Siuling]

First of all, I don't know how well this applies to others, so I'm not going to generalize. But if you do share my experience please comment.

I've done what feels like nearly 70 Ifrit HM runs as Monk, I have yet to see it drop a single time and I have the Ifrit weapon from 5 other classes. Okay I want to put this into perspective here, so you guys can understand why I am so incredibly frustrated.

There are 2 Tank classes, 2 Healer classes and 4 DPS classes, totaling to 8. The chance of Ifrit NOT giving you your weapon is 87.5%, which is very likely, however, to have it happen 70 times CONSECUTIVELY is unimaginably improbable, I ran the numbers through the cumulative binomial probability formula and the result is P(X ≥ 70): 0.008721%

FREAKING 0.008721% !!! That's equivalent to getting heads out of a coin toss 13 consecutive times !!!

I so hope this is not SE's way of "encouraging" people to play Tank and Healer.

P.S. the other weapons I obtained via rolling greed are 2 books, 1 axe, 1 spear and 1 sword.

[AltaneenXIV]

I feel ya, the rng here is a cruel mistress, and the one time a sword dropped the other Pld got it. /sadface

I really wish the drops would at least be limited to what classes are there, but what can ya do.

at least you've seen it drop, I'm starting to doubt the monk weapon even exists -__-

At least I've seen it drop?

Take into account you've never seen it once, now imagine the first time it does drop you're not going to get it, now you have to wait for a second one that will likely take as long to drop, also imagine there is an 80% chance there will be another Mnk in the party when it does. lol

I can assure you the Mnk weapon drops, I've seen it 4 times, and surprise surprise, not a Mnk in sight each time. ><

[Siuling]

at least you've seen it drop, I'm starting to doubt the monk weapon even exists -__-