Gathering % Rates

[bwalker36]

Thats just bad luck. I have had times where I miss there but the majority of the time but normally would go 5-6 nodes without a miss past 95%

[Crowley]

Can't tell you the amount of times 93% = 0%

[USMCJEV]

It's an overall average. You as an individual won't get 85% of the mats you go for just because it says 85%. It means that of all the thousands of players mining millions of times, on average 85% of the attempts will be successful.

In other words, learn to statistics.

[Rabbio]

I've been very lucky with my mining. I mine up a stack of each material while leveling and then check how many HQs I received. It is always above the 15%, and usually even at or above the 25% I can occasionally buff to.

99 alumite / 33 HQ alumite = 25%
99 iron ore / 27 HQ iron ore = 21%

I also don't get very many bad streaks in the gather percent. If it is at 70%+ I don't remember ever failing twice in a row. Sometimes in the 60% range though I'll fail a whole node. I'm happy if I'm trading some luck on gather chance for higher yields on HQ items!

[Lux_Rayna]

I've been very lucky with my mining.

Its not really "lucky".

For one, your % is not at a constant 15%. It will vary anywhere between 15-50% depending on what abilities you use and when. If you use your abilities regularly, your avg % HQ will be quite a bit higher than 15%. There's no way we could do the math on it w/o a lot more information, but what you're saying is not lucky nor unusual. You just aren't accounting for all the variables that lead to those results.

[WarJunkie]

It's called the 'relative frequency estimate of a probability'

In laymen terms it means the more times you attempt the listed activity, the closer you get to probability of that activity occurring.

Problem is the number of times you can do it is limited by the game mechanics and RNG. End result % achieved is never going to exactly the % listed for the activity unless its 100%.

Statistics can be a real headache, and SE can't do anything about it.

[Keoeson]

Statistics can be a real headache, and SE can't do anything about it.

That's not really true.
They controll the random number generator, if they picked a generator with a better distribution of the generated numbers, we wouldn't have this problem.

[Rabbio]

Its not really "lucky".

For one, your % is not at a constant 15%. It will vary anywhere between 15-50% depending on what abilities you use and when. If you use your abilities regularly, your avg % HQ will be quite a bit higher than 15%. There's no way we could do the math on it w/o a lot more information, but what you're saying is not lucky nor unusual. You just aren't accounting for all the variables that lead to those results.

Sorry, I forgot about this thread. I would say it's the definition of luck. I do not mine in sizes large enough to meet the intended percents. If I get higher than the intended percents I was... lucky! The entire "art" of gambling relies on exactly that. Beating the odds then quitting before they average back out.

I also was under level 20 mining when I posted this. I don't have HQ percents from 15-50. I, as I mentioned, have HQ at either 15%, or 25% with a buff. Those were the variables at the time for me.

[Tirocupidus]

There have been lots of times that I didn't get an HQ from 5 attempts at 25%. I've failed all four gathering attempts at 65%. Honestly, it's more of a pain when you're synthing HQ because you lose materials and more time. "96%, okay it's in the bag! ... What?!"

You can play around with the generator at random.org if you want. Using the default values of 1 to 100, every time you see a number greater than your percent chance, you fail. Pretend mining! Or wait, we already pretend mine. Pretend pretend mining! Really, though, it'll help you understand how it works if you don't already.

Edit: Actually with their integer page, you can just tell it how many times you want to mine and view the results. Try 1,000 and look for the failure streaks.

[RedMoko]

These rates are very accurate. In every case when looking at percentages you must use very large data samples(not one node or 10 - you need somewhere around 100 or more to get accurate data to make your conclusions, some would suggest 1000 or 10000 for better accuracy). I have my luminary botany tool already and I can assure you that the percentages are correct. When I farm 5-10 stacks of any item I am always within +- 1-5% accuracy without using any of my gp abilities. Of course If I use them things change drastically! I honestly think for leveling purposes there should be a much smaller HQ chance to make the economy work better for those that put the time in....