Its hard to guess, XI didnt get its biggest figures until 2008/09. Years after release. Most likely come about due to expansions. I think expansions will be the only thing that really bring back masses players because they're in the shops, they're advertised and marketed like a real game, and of course always require the initial game.

No changes will save the game because majority of people who left, have moved on and dont follow, so the people who do come back for changes is very small, its most likely the same crowd who log on after a patch to check it out, then log off until the next patch.

But the changes they make wont go unaffected because they will make the game better at the end of the day and if you compare say Advertising an expansion pack in 1 year without the patch changes compared to same scenario with patch changes, it would probably sell better with the changes. As the whole community would agree, so they help a little.

The problem I see is competition is going to become rough, and I dont think SE realise this (or if they do they're getting desperate).

FFXIV is currently in a very conflict state, there are just as much hardcore players as they are casuals, but I think if they went the hardcore route day one (for example making traditional EXPing and not this guildleve system and instead made like a dyn system or just hnms in place of it) they'd of done much better, because most of the original player base was ff11 players but they've lost so much of it by trying to go to an audience that really had no interest. It was silly imo.

I'm worried this year because of the amount of insane mmorpgs that are coming out, a lot of people have quit, and its fairly obviously they've gone to another game. If you're a hardcore mmo player and you quit this out of rage, i think its safe to say you didnt hang up your mmorpg socks and start playing mario. You've gone to another mmorpg.

But since I dont have my magic 8 ball on me, I dont know what mmorpgs will be out in 2012, or 13, or 14, which gives SE plenty of time to strike back much later on, much like they did with XI. And then mess it all up a few years after, much like they did with XI haha.