I think you are right. When hit with 3102 you can brute force your way inNeed to persevere. You can't expect to log on if you try 2-3 times every 3 hours, if you get 1017 just spam the 0 button on Npad tu retry over and over, generally you will get on after 10-15 minutes. They seem to "open the flood gates" about once every 15 minutes or maybe half an hour, just need to spam until you get in queue.
If it's cannot load NA/EU it usually means a 12-24 hour lockout or at least until they announce one of those maintenance where people do not have to log off.
/guessing
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