Crafting probability does not match with display

[Javelin]

...try a different order of crafting, you seem to be doing it mildly backwards to me. synthesis untill the craft is 1 step from being complete (unless the status is good or higher, in which case, you use a "touch" action) replenish durability with master's mend or other similar ability> hit number 5 THEN number 4 (to save 1 move for number 4...sorry I don't remember what they're called, and I'm at work, just going off of your screenshot), then use "touch" actions until you have 20 durability left (or 10 if you like to live on the wild side!...I like to play it safe if I'm crafting anything at or above my level) then finish it off with the last synthsis action....I have yet to find a useful time to use the "observe" action at lower levels, as there are better actions to take, on pretty much every "turn" during crafting..