So... Phase 4 and beyond, speculation ...

[Nikkita]

I think your Schedule is pretty good. Very close to what I estimated myself. People need to remember that road map was made like 8-9 months ago. That's why they added their disclaimer. It's why they have the disclaimer about saved progress for phase 4. They're covering their butts knowing anything can happen and change. They may not have thought there would be so much "passionate" feedback.

All phases thus far have been longer than originally planned (including the down time) I think the first exception to that will be phase 4. However I think it's smart on their part to only have a week. The more time they give players to progress before launch the sooner they will be done with the content and SE would be shooting themselves in the foot because they won't have their patch ready.

That said my guess was for Phase 4 to start around the 13th. But in the same Nico Nico event it was mentioned that phase 4 would start shortly after so I would say now somewhere around the 9-12th lasting a week and then yeah I know he said only 1-3 days till early start buuuuuut don't be surprised if it ends up being like 5 since early access is probably 3-5 days. This is the standard of MMO's. I also believe they said early start will role right into launch without downtime. This ALSO being the standard of MMO's

[ArkhamNative]

I also believe they said early start will roll right into launch without downtime. This ALSO being the standard of MMO's

At least one other major MMO did maintenance for about 5 hours to prep for the official start of service. (Not that OP's schedule need account for every hour. ) SE usually announces such things well in advance.