I'm also leaning towards there being a new class, but if I'm being totally honest I can't tell how much I'm being biased by the fact that I want a new class. I don't think they'll make two jobs from the same class because I think it'd be messy any way I can imagine they'd implement it. ...But then again I don't want them to make two jobs from the same class because I think it'd be messy any way I can imagine they'd implement it. So I might be having a little trouble keeping the two separate.
I believe it's been confirmed 100% that the beta will also not have the 8th job ready. Both SMN and SCH have been announced "for launch." I'm trying not to read to much into it, though, and I think your second suggestion is probably right. There will be 9 job slots, there just aren't at the moment. It's the developer's build after all, they don't need to get everything implemented at the same time like they'd have to if players were on the server.
I did notice that the new concept art had every job carrying its weapon with the exception of SMN, which appears unarmed. The actual naming of the mage classes hasn't made much sense to me from the beginning. Ignoring scholar, it seems to me it should've gone (in name only):
CNJ -> SMN [To conjure something and to summon something isn't all that different. EVK works too.]
ACN -> BLM [Arcane arts, black magic, whatever. It works for SMN as well, but I think CNJ works better.]
THM -> WHM [Thaumaturgey being a term which refers specifically to miracle-like magic. Certainly something closer associated with WHMs than BLMs.]
Ignoring the fact that I don't think they name their mage classes well, I'm sort of skeptical that the class they announced for SMN is going to be moved to a different job (instead of SMN). If there's a unique class associated with SCH, my money is still on a Tactician.


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