Scholar... SAY WHUT?

[Anonymoose]

We should have taken Screen shots just in case and compiled them together for name and shame. Pretty sure Anonymoose was a naysayer.. xD

I'm down with that. Here's every single thing I said in this thread on the subject of Scholar. See if you can find the spot where I said anything other than, "I find it very unlikely, but I don't think unlikely is enough to count it out. For each time someone states why they think it's probably going to happen, I'll state why that's not very convincing to me, and then we'll see!"

Usually there'll be a huge debate over the speculative evidence, and I'm usually able to suss out where it's headed (the old "Which mage becomes BLM" debate, the "is it a barcher" debate, etc.) but this one's just too close to call.

[MSK into SCH would be a longshot, but]

HOW. BADASS.

Either way, Summoner is on the cover of the CE and Scholar is not. I'd say that's a hint to not get our hopes up about it existing anytime soon, never mind being related at all to MSK, who is far and away more likely to be Corsair - a magical gambling job with an offhand flintlock for TP and WS.

Just to stir the coals here (because I'm trying so hard to not let my gut instinct influence me before this inevitably gets gatling'd at Yoshida's twitter in the next LIVE letter or at E3...), what does each side of this debate make of the fact that this is the same character making the same facial expression?

Nah, that's just my entire commentary on this Scholar issue, lol. Regardless of what the outcome is, SE clearly knew this was going to start the rumor mill a-churnin'. I'd like to remain neutral as far as "picking a side" goes on this particular issue, but I think it's coming through pretty clear that my instinct says no scholar. For all we know the theme isn't "Job Wheel" but "All the things Naoki Yoshida has added to this game since most people quit." My gut's usually good with these things, but I won't take it personally if it's wrong this time, lol.

Big questions is if they were going to do confirm it in the LIVE letter, why come on in the test video seemingly making a big joke about it? Wouldn't it be better business sense to big up tension and not mention it at all and then deliver the big "I KNEW IT!" moment later?

Looks suspicious...

Personally, I don't find that to be any stronger of evidence, never mind a blatant confirmation, <snip> I think it's still up in the air with a heavy statistical likelihood towards ACN.

I've seen SE pull a lot of stuff out of their ass for a surprise before, but never anything like that. Information is inevitably leaked from time to time, and some of it so far has been way more sensitive than this; they'd have no reason to hide the system infrastructure changes needed for this to be Scholar. Could they still do it? Hell yeah. Will they? Probably not, imho.

<snip>

Again, not saying I'm obviously right ... but ... I'm siding with the numbers.

The big thing is that I just don't feel it, you know? It's like trying to explain why you don't like a certain food. I'm just not buying what you're selling. I'm not above admitting a mistake - if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm just stating why I feel that it's not very likely.

I was pretty convinced it was SCH until I took a look at the bigger picture and the probability is just so comparatively small. It could be - remember, the bard incident was what it looked like... but there was also a lot of supporting evidence for it, specifically that they'd have needed to secretly add an entire job without telling anyone. See why this is so up in the air for me? lol

<snip>As for the video teaser, if I were someone who believed in SCH and I watched Yoshida's expression there, I'd have been like "CASE CLOSED." and refused to question why the PR guy let him come on with a mortarboard at all.

And, of course, I find it hard to let go of this quote when it was so recent:

That just sounds like he has much bigger plans than "First thing after Arcanist and Summoner, we release Scholar. That's what we need right now."

Maybe he did, though. Maybe they got SMN ready ahead of schedule, and made something else, and they figured SCH would be totally useful over BLU and RDM. I'd be shocked, though. I'd just not mention anything outside of lore ever again, lol.

<snip>I actually want it, too. I actually want all of the things I've argued as being unlikely. I want Scholar because I think it's an interesting and fun class, even if it wasn't terribly useful in FFXI and doesn't seem like a high priority need for ARR yet. I want it to be job branching because hell yeah two jobs for one grind, bitches! And if it's not job branching, I want Scholar to come from Musketeer because, seriously, take that people who are way too pushy about this. Still, if they managed to keep all of that secret this long, just WOW. Yoshida's already kind of a legend... he'd be a development demigod.

Ehhh, you never know. I may have listed it as unlikely, but the JP threads seem to indicate little questioning of the exchange between the Yoshida and PR being a rather solid confirmation of sorts, as far as I can tell. No mentions of what if it's this, what if it's that... just boils down to "Branch or New Class?" It doesn't make me reassess my take on the probability, but it does make me question a little more seriously if they pulled improbable off right under our nose.

The facial expression and body language seem legit. Even if you don't know the translation it looks like, "Say what's on your head." "Oh, god, he's putting me on the spot." "Go ahead, I'm saying you can." "I don't want to..." "Just do it." "Fine, SCHOLAAA-" and the guy from offscreen gets involved. The only thing that doesn't add up is the story. Why even let him come on dressed like that if they weren't going to mention it? How would a "leak" occur through the package art? There was no way the release of the IE art or the box art would be a surprise to anyone.

However, I also agree that it'd be unlikely for SE to troll that hard. I'd believe Fernehalwes messing around for the sake of current events, I'd believe Soken dressing up for the sake of boosting ratings tomorrow... but... eeeehhhhh. Maybe!

I said I wouldn't take it personally if I was wrong, and I don't. I called it wrong - the mofo pulled off the unlikely! In half the time it took them to make 1.0, they built a game twice as good with twice as much in it and added entirely new classes. That's amazing.

So... am I missing something that justifies "let's make fun of him for not thinking it was likely even though he was never a jackass to anyone about how he's obviously right and they're a fool for not seeing it?"

I think the most forceful thing I've said was that if I was wrong I should probably just stick to commenting on lore from now on seeing as that's what my strong suit is.