CG Midlander

[Anonymoose]

If only we'd let poor Atomos do his job and suck up all the aether before B'hom got here. That'll learn us!

I was under the impression that Atomos boned us BIG TIME by sucking up all that aether. The way I interpreted it, Midgardsormr's fall threw Mor Dhona's aetheric network into chaos to begin with, turning it into a crystal wasteland and making certain aether centers unstable and likely to rip into the void (the Darkhold's utter fabric-of-reality collapse, for one example). Then Darnus comes along and steals a metric ton of crystals, has us kill the primals, etc. and sends all that to Bahamut. This rapid shift in the network tore the void open and Atomos came through, sucking up so much of what aether was left and drawing in so many other voidsent that we were unable to use any for ourselves to manifest The Twelve, causing Louisoix's ritual to fail.

That's how I took it, anyway.

Anyway, so what makes you think that Bahamut wasn't manifest? Strongest argument against is that his tribe would have just re-summoned him, unless you're proposing that Dalamud somehow captured an unsummoned primal essence... That would just be SILLY!

To start with, we know that in the very same year that the Garleans took Silvertear, they attempted to awaken Bahamut with another lunar transmitter, resulting in a red moon and some catastrophe (presumably a freaking gigaflare) wiping out their town. Keep in mind what's going on at that time - Bahamut was far away and with the help of a lunar transmitter, was able to destroy a town.

If he was manifest the entire time, why was he not just launching flares every time he felt particularly jaunty? Was he manifest, but overhwelmingly physically weak? That's certainly one possibility, but the assumption you call silly is actually my first impression, LOL.

The Allag had some pretty weird technology; who's to say they couldn't trap a primal's voidsent essence and send it far away from aether sources? That's what I took Dalamud to be in the first place.

Aether and primals always have the same relationship - they need to use it to maintain manifestation. Every single time we talk to Lou, he tells us the danger of summoning ANY god, be it primal, moogle king, or Twelve themselves, is the drain of the crystal's life-force that our planet needs. The longer they're manifest, the more we're blowing through, the less the planet has, the more we're screwed. That's why he wants us to defeat them ASAP. Funny enough, he states this most clearly towards the Moogle.

Therefore, if it's true that the longer they're manifest, the more aether they need - and we send Bahamut far away from aether - does it not make sense that he would eventually dissipate? If this dissipation would give him the freedom to return somewhere else, would we not need to trap that essence somehow? Perhaps by some kind of ... MAGIC (long-lost technology)?

That was my impression anyway. We'll figure out what it is soon enough; ARR has a questline for this very topic.

One of the biggest things that will settle this is "Who knew Bahamut was Bahamut?" and "Who was in charge of the Citadel incident?" The answers to those alone could change the meaning behind the entire thing.

[Digirotta]

Welp, read the whole thread. T'was fun.

What started bugging me, is the origin of the Primals. I mean, sure, some of them bursted out the aetherstream when Midgarsormr took down Agrius and broke the seal under the lake. But then i remember seeing a cutscene (Legends Adrift) with Sisipu, who said:

Sisipu: Legend has it that long, long ago, the world was a parched wasteland, filled with nothing but fire and rocks. Llymlaen, the Navigator, saw this and created a giant serpent to spout forth water and create Eorzea's oceans. But soon she realized that the serpent would never stop, and that all the land would one day disappear beneath the waves, so she sealed the beast away within a floating island called Swallowtail Roam. The island drifts about the sea so that those with evil intentions might never find it...

So, it would seem that Leviathan was a "gift" from one of the twelve daities. Taking a guess at the time of Leviathan's "birth", the beginning of the Sixth Umbral era was the era of Water. in Wikia, it is described as follows: "Severe flooding caused the submersion and damage of many parts of Eorzea." Which makes Sisipu's story sound awfully convenient, considering it happened almost 16 centuries ago.

So i started wondering, "are other primals the same? If so, why were they given to us?" Then i noticed that 5th era was of Ice, which might refer to Shiva being "born". But it would collide with Sisipu's story of the earth being all "fire and rocks", which would be 3rd and 4th umbral eras, thus creating Ifrit and Titan, respectively. 2nd era is of lightning/Ramuh, and the lastly the first umbral era is of wind/Garuda.

Naturally, i can't pinpoint Odin, Bahamut and King Moggle anywhere, as they don't seem to have an elemental alignment. Which kinda makes me think, that they'd be somehow superior or rogue, or the elder primals. Not to mention the possible primal status of the already speculated Siren.


//edit:
While taking a quick reflection of era's i started thinking that maybe each era marked a born of a new primal, which resulted in a chaos or another, thus starting a new era. Was each following birth of a primal only trying to set a balance for the previous ones?

[NoloeTazier]

Welp, read the whole thread. T'was fun.

What started bugging me, is the origin of the Primals. I mean, sure, some of them bursted out the aetherstream when Midgarsormr took down Agrius and broke the seal under the lake. But then i remember seeing a cutscene (Legends Adrift) with Sisipu, who said:



So, it would seem that Leviathan was a "gift" from one of the twelve daities. Taking a guess at the time of Leviathan's "birth", the beginning of the Sixth Umbral era was the era of Water. in Wikia, it is described as follows: "Severe flooding caused the submersion and damage of many parts of Eorzea." Which makes Sisipu's story sound awfully convenient, considering it happened almost 16 centuries ago.

So i started wondering, "are other primals the same? If so, why were they given to us?" Then i noticed that 5th era was of Ice, which might refer to Shiva being "born". But it would collide with Sisipu's story of the earth being all "fire and rocks", which would be 3rd and 4th umbral eras, thus creating Ifrit and Titan, respectively. 2nd era is of lightning/Ramuh, and the lastly the first umbral era is of wind/Garuda.

Naturally, i can't pinpoint Odin, Bahamut and King Moggle anywhere, as they don't seem to have an elemental alignment. Which kinda makes me think, that they'd be somehow superior or rogue, or the elder primals. Not to mention the possible primal status of the already speculated Siren.


//edit:
While taking a quick reflection of era's i started thinking that maybe each era marked a born of a new primal, which resulted in a chaos or another, thus starting a new era. Was each following birth of a primal only trying to set a balance for the previous ones?

The Twelve may indeed be who made the Primals. As for Primals being born to each Umbral era, I think it'd be really iffy. The Umbral eras are more likely caused by "man" (collectively here) than the Primals. The First Umbral was indeed Wind but the history that we have, what caused the Umbral era was the Twelve leaving because the wandering tribes began to war with each other, ruining the peace. We don't know who these wandering tribes are yet, the only 2 possible choices for 'native' Eorzeans are Hellsguard Roegydan and Elezen. Other races came way later on in time.

As I stated in my timeline, I believe the Fifth and Sixth Umbral eras coincided with each other. Ice melts and causes the Flooding. As for the Third Umbral and Fourth Umbral, we don't know when Bahamut was sealed exactly. The imprisonment of Bahamut could have gave rise to the Allagan Empire or it could have brought on the destruction or atleast the downfall of them when the Fourth Umbral hit. So atleast Bahamut can be associated with 1 or 2 of the Umbral Eras, but there's no hint of any other Primals causing the other Umbral Eras. They're strong, but I don't think they're strong enough to usher in total destruction in Eorzea or let alone the rest of the planet. We also know that Primals aren't just in Eorzea, but have halted the Garlean's advancement in other parts of the world. So it's not like they're entirely special.

Also it's hinted that Urianger or the Archons were responsible for the Sixth Umbral Era. So I'm still more inclined to think it's 'mans' fault. Pissing off the Twelve which makes them leave Eorzea and ushers in the First Umbral, then the hints of Urianger causing the Sixth Umbral (even though I think the Ice melts from the Fifth Umbral caused the waters to rise, but they still could have played some part).

[Anonymoose]

So, it would seem that Leviathan was a "gift" from one of the twelve daities.

The Twelve may indeed be who made the Primals.

I started thinking the same thing, but after Ferne's reply I realized that we need to be very careful with this idea.

I don't think the legend of Swallowtail Roam is about Leviathan at all - I think it's about the sea serpent, who we have confirmation is neither Leviathan nor a primal. This makes the serpent very much like Midgardsormr; not a primal, ancient, credited with creation by the Twelve, and dutiful to a specific purpose.

Remember, when the island rises and the treasure is removed, who comes for it? Not Leviathan. We mistook it for Leviathan, it looked like Leviathan, it basically used Tidal Wave... but it wasn't him. It was "Llymlaen"'s serpent.

I'm still working out the text for the last two loremongers on this subject, so I can't say with certainty where this is going (and oh my god are there seemingly some contradictions, so I'm sure I'll be back here begging for answers even after the fourth is finished.)

Also it's hinted that Urianger or the Archons were responsible for the Sixth Umbral Era.

This is something we'll likely have to wait until ARR to know for sure; remember, the story for this game was created to be flawed. It's created to have red herrings, false perspectives, misunderstandings... there are rumors circulating that the Circle of Knowing is responsible for the SEVENTH Umbral Era as well - but we saw firsthand that they did everything they could to stop it.

In the scene that Kan-E-Senna's introduced, were those spirits killed by Garlean soldiers or Wildlings?

I'm going to recommend talking to Catapult about that one; he knows far, far more than I about Gridanian matters (especially while I'm still trying to solve Lominsa's lore issues).

[Catapult]

I'm going to recommend talking to Catapult about that one; he knows far, far more than I about Gridanian matters (especially while I'm still trying to solve Lominsa's lore issues).

Why thank you.

It is certainly implied and the player could be forgiven for simply assuming that it was the garleans who slew those elementals, but it is not explicitly stated as such. However, what we DO know is significant:
- These elementals are referred to as "great ones", meaning they are the kind that can simply "take" people like how we see happen to Swethyna's unit in a later Twin Adder quest. They aren't harmed easily, let alone killed.
- This is a turning point for Kan-E. The Seedseers don't consider themselves as needing to be in Gridania much, since they are better placed conversing with the Wood.
Kan-E has recognised that there is a great threat in the Wood, but in order to address it, she must engage against the Garlean problem.

Now do we believe that the Garleans are the great threat? If so, the Garleans killed the Great Ones. But I am not of that opinion. I believe that what killed them is the same thing that assulted Farimond's squad in Souls Gone Wild.

Ascians? Odin? Sigurd and Oona's operation? Yeah, we're waiting for that to be cleared up.



On an earlier topic, Moose, you used the term "primal's Voidsent essence."
This is a contradiction in terms, since Voidsent are from beyond the aether, but primals are amongst it.
I envisaged Bahamut's prison as one that starved him into a coma, but fed him just enough aether, possibly drawn from the Moon, to keep him from dissipating.

[Digirotta]

I don't think the legend of Swallowtail Roam is about Leviathan at all - I think it's about the sea serpent, who we have confirmation is neither Leviathan nor a primal. This makes the serpent very much like Midgardsormr; not a primal, ancient, credited with creation by the Twelve, and dutiful to a specific purpose.

Yeah, i'm kinda feeling it too, after sleeping on this thought. It's revealed in the storyline, that summoned primals are but temporary beings, which would kinda give Leviathan an uncalled edge, were it to be simply "freed" from aetherstream by unlocking Seal Rock. And considering Leviathan's part in the lore along with other similar primals, it just wouldn't make that much sense.

Remembering back the words of Yoshi-P about Dravanians, Bahamut and Midgarsormr, that'd leave Nidhogg to be the assumed gift of Llymlaen. (Nope, wait, that doesn't make sense either, my bad ._.)

Now that i think of it, i remember you guys discussing how the Ul'dah storyline unraveled to be a planned assasination. Reflecting that to Limsa's storyline, the cutscene where the Player finds Emmeric in the anchored ship's cargo hold, Travenchet arrives to the scene. The battle ends after the Sea Serpent uses a Tidal Wave-like attack. Which kinda gave me the feeling, that Travenchet is in control of it, like Kraken was in Pirates of the Caribbean. What if he attacked in the very first Limsan cutscene, too?

Which kinda makes me want to raise the question, are the sea serpents in these two cutscenes the same, and are they both controlled by Travenchet at the time? If so, the horn we've seen might be the one, that controls it, meaning, the echoes, where Y'shtola is searching for a man without a shadow, might have occurred AFTER she lost that horn to Travenchet.

I haven't had my morning coffee yet, and i'm already going a-hundred-and-twenty. Ohhh i can't wait for ARR. *jumps up and down*

[Xux]

In the scene that Kan-E-Senna's introduced, were those spirits killed by Garlean soldiers or Wildlings?

[Anonymoose]

[Y]ou used the term "primal's Voidsent essence." This is a contradiction in terms, since Voidsent are from beyond the aether, but primals are amongst it.

Good point. I sometimes forget that "Voidsent" are a kindred and not just a catch-all-term for anything that was all metaphysical out there and, by aether, all physical up in here. I shall attempt a rephrasal!

The Allag had some pretty weird technology; who's to say they couldn't trap an entity's metaphysical essence from out there and send it far away from aether sources, thereby preventing it from getting all physical up in here?

Not as smooth, but more accurate!

I envisaged Bahamut's prison as one that starved him into a coma, but fed him just enough aether, possibly drawn from the Moon, to keep him from dissipating.

So that makes three equally good sounding possibilities! Maybe it'll come up some day with other Allag tech.

The battle ends after the Sea Serpent uses a Tidal Wave-like attack. Which kinda gave me the feeling, that Travenchet is in control of it, like Kraken was in Pirates of the Caribbean. What if he attacked in the very first Limsan cutscene, too?

This is something that's going to come up in the next Loremonger I work on; I'm going to try to finish the Lominsa Four, and then add pictures / superfluous NPC dialogue to Catapult's Gridanian installments (which are awesome, btw). There's still an opening for any Ul'dah loyalists who want to try to tackle it before we get there, if anyone is excited at such a prospect! Would be cool to have an official Loremonger-er for each city's perspective.

WARNING: LONGEST. POST. EVER
I spent like, half the day (on and off) on this thing.
Here's hoping it leads somewhere!

The scene you reference is extremely convoluted and has been giving me almost as bad of a headache as sorting out all the text from Treasures of the Main - but here's what I've gathered so far. I may need you fine peoples' help on this one; either I'm missing some things, or I've assumed some things incorrectly and it prevents me from deducing others. I may just need fresh eyes on it.

Before these events, then-Commodore Sthalmann became obsessed with the prospect of claiming absolute power using the treasure of Swallowtail Roam (Seal Rock). The scheme he concocts requires plausible deniability, so he recruits two specific cohorts into the Knights of the Barracuda under the guise of filling the new Seal Rock unit.

The first member he recruits is Emerick. Why him? He has secret ties to the Sahagin. How does Sthalmann know this? Because his niece, Sisipu, is the only survivor of a Sahagin raid that destroyed an entire village, based on information provided by Emerick - an exchange she saw personally. By recruiting Emerick, he gains the ability to plan attacks on his own organization (The Knights of the Barracuda) without it ever being traced back to him; and, if Emerick is ever caught, it will be assumed that the entire reason he infiltrated the 'Cudas was to benefit the Kraken's Arms, a pirate organization of which he is formally a part. Worst case scenario, Emerick turns on him and Sthalmann uses Sisipu to shred his credibility and have him executed.

The second member he recruits is Merodaulyn, whom we see Sthalmann recommend to Mannskoen directly. Why him? He's an amazing fighter and is aggressively self-serving. He's as loyal as his options, and with Sthalmann gunning for the Admiralty, you don't get much more power than having the nation's leader owe you for his very position. Like Emerick, if Merodaulyn is caught, it will appear that he infiltrated the 'Cudas on behalf of his pirate organization, the Sanguine Sirens (who apparently are not all female).

Neither Caravallian (leader of the Kraken's Arms) nor Rhoswen (leader of the Sanguine Sirens) are aware what their agents are up to aside from their infiltration; in fact, despite the fact that Caravallian and Rhoswen share a secret and professional relationship (possibly even an intimate one), their organizations hate each other with a passion that they often kill one another.

So, by recruiting these two into the 'Cudas, he's got plausibly deniable allies on both sides of the fight - the Sahagin, who he can selectively leak information to to remove barriers to his taking power, and the 'Cudas themselves, where his agent Merodaulyn can ensure that these attacks go smoothly and without anyone left to report what's truly occurring. Emerick and Merodaulyn forge a public rivalry and personal friendship.

For a while, this goes off without a hitch. The plan was this:

• Emerick would leak the location of the Seal Rock Unit to the Sahagin
• The Sahagin would attack the unit, of which Merodaulyn was a part
• The Sahagin and Merodaulyn would wipe out the unit
• While this was occuring, Emerick would recommend the Kraken's Arms plunder Seal Rock
• The Misery would sail past the destroyed fleet
• Emerick would steal The Key (Horn) and tell the Krakens that he found nothing
• Emerick would hide The Key in the water where a shark toxin keeps Sahagin away (Sisipu's fishing spot)
• Sthalmann would arrest Emerick (for his own protection) and sequester him at sea
• Merodaulyn would rescue Emeric from his isolated captivity
• Sthalmann would see to the assassination of the Admiral
• The three would retrieve the key and take power, driving off the Sahagin and appearing heroes (or Sthalmann would have them both killed, as well, who knows)

Where does it go wrong? Well, the sea serpent turns out to be more than myth. This starts causing attention to be drawn to the entire situation, so Sthalmann denies that it even exists for as long as he can. Then, Emerick goes through the Sahagin indirectly, using a Serpent Reaver (a non-Sahagin loyal to the Sahagin, usually for pay) to get the job done; Travanchet. Unfortunately, this Reaver isn't loyal to the Sahagin at all - he's a freaking ascian. (Also, I just noticed that the same music plays when the Ascian appears in Ul'dah and whenever Travanchet is around.)

So, for a while, this all goes according to plan. The Sahagin take out the unit, Emerick gets the horn, Sthalmann sequesters Emerick, Merodaulyn gets to Emerick's "cell" - and then EVERYTHING GOES TO HELLS (ALL SEVEN OF THEM).

This is one of the parts I don't understand at all.

The Player ends up in this situation because, not knowing what the Echo is or that they've been experiencing the past, they believe Emerick to still be alive. Despite NPCs claiming outright that he's dead, Baderon gives you his last known location - the ship at sea where the 'Cudas bring the worst villains (to prevent some sweet vigilante justice from getting in their way).

To get to that ship, Baderon agrees to forgive a favor Hob owes him if he brings you out there. Hob agrees, and takes you out to the 'Cuda vessel using one of the FSH guilds ships (Question #1: What happened to Hob's original ship?). Once you get there, he links the ships and brings you aboard, saying to make it quick now that you and the "catwoman" coaxed him into this - then he triggers an echo after saying that (Question #2: If Y'shtoa's investigation was years ago, why is present-day Hob saying the catwoman coaxed him into this somehow?). Now, Hob's plan is to say that he brought you to the 'Cuda vessel because he was at-sea and saw some Serpent Reavers - thus deciding he better warn Commodore Reyner. This is likely what makes him trigger the echo; he seems to start reminiscing about actually seeing serpent reavers coming to this area. Once you're on-board the vessel, you hear Emerick banging on the door and let him out, then Merod arrives and they pretend to fight it out for a moment before deciding to make their escape. Then Y'shtola arrives (Question #3: Where the hell did she come from? She said she was going to request help from the Astalicia, but it's not here...)

Y'shtola warns them the the Sahagin are coming and the Ascians also want what he stole - she's actually more right than she knows, because Travanchet is commanding the two Reaver ships, who engage the ship Emerick's on. When we zoom out, we see three warships, all flying Knights of the Barracuda flags on their masts. (Question Set #4: Where did the other two ships come from; was Y'shtola on one? I thought she was coming on The Astalicia? Did past-Hob come in on one? Why was he there and thus able to provide this echo? Once you cross over to the prison ship, you see Hob justifying his presence to two 'Cuda guards - did he sneak in on that day, too? If not, did we exit Hob's "THERE'S SOME REAVERS" echo and enter a 'Cuda's memory of Emerick!? Was the Admiral on one of these boats, thus tying up Sthalmanns loose ends and causing him to claim the Admiral has been sent to the abyss?)

One of the cannons used by the Cuda's, which rains lots of projectiles from above, gets the attention of the sea serpent, who shows up and Tidal Waves everything (including Travanchet's ships). Y'shtola "teleports" the player out at the last second. In present-day, the Player has collapsed unconscious on the deck of the 'Cuda ship; meanwhile Hob's beaten up and arrested. (Question Set #5: In an echo a moment later, Sthalmann says that Emerick and Merod "escaped". Were they killed in the Tidal Wave and Sthalmann is just playing ignorant or did they die later? Did Y'shtola teleport herself out as well?)

For a moment things make sense again; you go to Coral Tower to bail out Hob, and in doing so tell Now-Commodore Reyner about the sea serpent. This triggers an echo of the last time he heard about it, when Sthalmann says he made it return to the depths by getting rid of a tablet taken from Seal Rock (which he was able to confiscate from Maelvan's Gate by letting the Sangine Sirens believe Emerick was there, leading to their attack on the area, guaranteeing that the 'Cudas would need to investigate). At this time, Sthalmann says that he believes Y'shtola to be a spy and goes to the Gods' Grip to apprehend her (likely because she's the only person left alive who knows what he's done).

Once you get to Gods Grip, again oblivious to the fact that these events are already over, you run into Blackburn. He seems to trigger this echo, but how? He says that Rostnsthal (present-day Sthalmann) comes to fish here; did he echo-jump Sthalmann and then pass what he saw along to you somehow?

Anyway, in this echo, Y'shtola confronts Sthalmann, who says the Admiral has been sent to the depths. As they fight, the horn activates itself and an echo-in-an-echo takes place where you and Y'shtola see Sthalmann planning his original plot with the pirates, outing him to Y'shtola. (Question Set #6: What happens here? Did the horn awaken Y'shtola to the echo and she jumped Sthalmann? Did you jump Sthalmann and she came for the ride?) After this, the starshower is seen and Travanchet appears right after. (Question Set #7: It looks like Travanchet "rode" the starshower in. Did he? Or was it just an omen of bad things to come? Or was it that Y'shtola was actually awakened to the Echo and this was her "WELCOME TO ECHODOM!" starshower?)

He takes the treasure and jets. And now we're here! We can assume that Y'shtola outed Sthalmann... unless Blackburn did... I don't know.

So, needless to say, I can use some help. Perhaps I'll figure it out as I keep Loremongering. I get a little closer each time I bang my head on this wall, but I'm still puzzled. Unfortunately, I'm at the point where I'm faster jumping to conspiracy theories (Travanchet is a Paragon! He's in league with the Sahagin to teach them to summon Leviathan! All summons require an artifact to be summoned! The ascians want to teach the beast tribes to summon primals to weaken our reality by stealing all of the mother crystal's power so they can invade and eat all our shadows!) than I am getting to real conclusions at this point.

Of course, Ferne, if you're out there somewhere and already know that we're not going to find what I'm looking for, feel free to chime in if you end up with some free time. I'll keep trying, though!

[Catapult]

Ok, so we need to tie up some loose ends, clearly. While I can't help you with the questions you asked, I'll try asking some that YOU might be able to springboard off. Meanwhile, I'll go watch all those Limsa cutscenes and see if anything occurs to me. It really is the most confusing of the city stories, which means it must have been a real challenge to localise. /props to Ferne

Q1: Who exactly is Blackburn? Eyes and ears of the Path, yes, but what is his connection to historical events? The best I can think of is a lighthouse keeper at the God's Grip.

Q2: What does Blackburn tell you at the Waking Sands at the start of Fade to White? Both Minfilia and Khrimm (the Hermit) drop hints for you, meaning it would be odd if Blackburn didn't say something significant.

Q3: Does anything in history change in that final sequence? If Y'shtola and/or Trevanchet have joined you for the ride, do they do anything that shouldn't have happened if they weren't there?

[Anonymoose]

Who exactly is Blackburn? <...> What does Blackburn tell you at the Waking Sands at the start of Fade to White? <...> Does anything in history change in that final sequence?

Better yet, we'll go through it all at once and I'll give you everything said by / about him.

Gods' Grip
After Reyner triggers the Echo in which you see Sthalmann vow to arrest Y'shtola, you head to the Gods' Grip, as well. However, there you find only Blackburn, who apparently fishes here in his spare time, as do Sisipu and Rostnsthalmann

Now, what would an adventurer be doing all the way out here? Oh? You say you're looking for Sthalmann? Haven't heard that name used in years. Might ye know the lad? Comes here often to drop a line, he does. Though he mostly just broods until it grows too dark for him to see his scowling reflection in the water. Mayhap one day he'll find again that which he lost. I, meself, come here for much the same reason. Understand yet? Well, you will. You will...

Immediately after he says this, WHOOSH, Y'shtola is standing behind The Player and says, "Be warned, adventurer. Blood will be spilled this day." Sthalmann arrives, angry that she has broken their deal to meet alone (because The Player is there), but she claims that she has no control over the whims of an errant soul, and the scene plays out as if The Player wasn't standing there until the middle of Sthalmann v. Y'shtola's fight (during which she displays some insane superpowers - vaporizing a bullet in midair, blocking an axe swing with her palm).

The Key (horn) glows, and another Echo is triggered (despite already being inside of one seemingly generated by Blackburn). Immediately, Y'shtola expresses her confusion ("What is this place? Where is Sthalmann?"), which leads me to believe that every time The Player has seen her prior to this, she was in her own real-time. In this Echo, you watch from afar as Sthalmann, Emerick, and Merodaulyn lay out the initial plan for their scheme. Afterwards, both you and Y'shtola are thrown backwards by nothingness, and Y'shtola is shocked (The Echo... You have been touched by- You can walk the warrens of the past!), which implies that you did this, somehow, not she. The way she cuts herself off there also implies she knows what we're touched by to some degree. (FINISH YOUR SENTENCES, CAT. TOUCHED BY WHAT? WAS IT SIREN!? I SWEAR TO TWELVE IF IT WAS SIREN...)

This may fit your "Did you change anything about the past?" to some degree; it's possible that, if you truly were the one that triggered the Sthalmann Schemes Echo, then Y'shtola would not have seen it without you there, thus she would not know Sthalmann was the enemy, and thus wouldn't report him to the Knights of the Barracuda. It's possible that this is what caused him to fall from power. Holy hachimaki; talk about a time-loop paradox! This is the first time I've interpreted it this way, so I may be missing something - or I may be onto something. Either way, it may fit the bill for what you're asking for.

After the Sthalmann Schemes Echo, a starshower hits and Travanchet appears. During this starshower, the camera follows one sparkle in particular; to me this implies that Travanchet rode the starshower in - but that's not gospel. He might have just appeared from shadow and the starshower was an ill-omen, as the journal implies. Who knows? Either way, he takes the key and jets.

As I said, it's possible that, if you weren't there, Travanchet would have stolen the key and Sthalmann would have undermined Y'shtola and taken the Admiralty, somehow... so that's open for debate. After Travanchet disappears, you pass out entirely, and Blackburn says...

Ye alright? Hm... Looks like I was right... This one hears the Echo as well. I'd better take him somewhere safe.

The Player wakes up back at the Mizzenmast Inn under the care of Baderon, a mutual friend of The Player and Blackburn. All he has to say about the matter is:

An old friend o' mine was kind enough t' carry ye back t' th' Wench after yer tumble down at the Grip. When the fog's cleared out yer 'ead, best ye go an' give yer proper gramercies t' ol' Blackburn. Said 'e'd be makin' 'is way back t' Ul'dah - some 'ole called the Wakin' Sands found buried deep within th' shadows of th' Merchants Ward. Told me t' let ye know 'e'd be waitin'...but only once ye've put a lit'le meat on yer bones. If ye ask me, Ul'dah ain't more'n a sand-crusted pile o' puk dung bakin' in th' desert sun...and th' last place I'd send a friend. But, ye'd be a fool t' turn yer back on the call o' fate.

Arrival at the Walking Sands

When I found ye in a heap near the Gods' Grip, I reckoned ye might've fallen victim of one of them visions. If that be the case, the Antecedent, Lady Minfilia, would like to have a few words with ye. Ye need not worry, lad. The Lady won't pass no judgment on ye, only offer a bit of guidance...as will we all, if ye let us. I've told the Antecedent what I know of yer case, and now I must return to Vylbrand to continue me search for others like ye. Here's to our paths crossing again, whether it be in the future...or the past.

He leaves, you talk to Minfilia, who gives you a generic rundown with his namedrop (I assume the phrase is exactly the same with other namedrops in other cities).

Your bemused expression tells me you have not heard of us...which is to be expected. Ours is an underground organization dedicated to the documentation and research of divine intervention...or "miracles" if you wish. We have walkers in each of Eorzea's city-states who investigate and report such phenomena. The man who directed you here, Blackburn, is one of many who serve as our eyes and ears.

UNLESS...

Mayhap one day he'll find again that which he lost.
I, meself, come here for much the same reason.

. . .
. . .
. . .



BOOOOOM!

Emerick, as in emery - a mineral that is dark gray and used as an abrasive.
Dark gray as in BLACK, abrasive as in BURN.


THAT'S why he knows the fishing spot,

THAT'S why he's able to trigger the Sthalmann echo,

AND THAT EXPLAINS THE ABRASION. ON. YOUR. PAAAAALM.




It doesn't answer any of my questions, but still.