http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...l=1#post849671

Now, to answer the question that’s on everyone’s lips: when the heck is the alpha test going to start!? Well, it looks like things can finally get moving around the end of October.
3-4 months of alpha and beta is probably realistic, that's why I think it won't come out until March, unless the game is running miraculously well and doesn't need a lot of tweaks.