If SE is taking away my hard work...

[VanillaLatte]

Show me where I said its a guaranteed, quote me please.

I didn't go through all of your posts and I never said you guaranteed anything, did I?

I was pointing out there is no guarantees in gambling.

You think Vanya will be worth a lot more than 1/10 of the current pricing because people will likely to buy them for maybe just 6/10 of the current pricing. If it's true it just means Vanya will be in higher demand in ARR (or harder to make or whatever). This has nothing to do with gil redenomination.

You can well stack them right now even if there's no gil redenomination. When ARR comes, they can well be worth 12m instead of the 2m today.

It has everything to do with ARR changes, and nothing to do with the gil redenomination.

[Wynn]

you will be correct for about 4-6 months after launch. After that point, if the game is successful, then you will begin to see to an upswing in prices as a result of the large influx of currency into the economy. At that point the people who spent all their time collecting Gil will begin to control the Wards and will drive prices higher.

I think you are right, to a certain point.

But the fact is, you can't get blood from a turnip. You can ask for a certain price all you want, but if it is too high and there are lower priced alternatives you will be hard pressed to make that sale without some kind of compromise. The median will be found no matter how many people are resistant to that process unless it is everyone, and that is highly unlikely. In fact, I guess you could argue that if everyone were resistant to prices going down that would mean things are already correctly priced.

Another point is that there will always be people who are willing to undercut prices in order to make a sale if the item is worth selling and lowering the price does not put the seller in the red. As inflated as our economy is even now you see the evidence of that everywhere you look on the ward search.

A good example is the relics. What happened when Atomos was spitting out gil like a pez dispenser? Prices quickly bloated. Especially for the relic starters. Seeing one of those weapons for 30mil was suddenly normal. And, yes, for a little while people were actually paying those prices because they had it... from farming Atomos.

Last week, double melded astrolabes on my server were selling for 16mil which was down from what it was just after the Atomos inflation. They actually got upwards toward 25mil at the height. This week, they are 10mil. In one week they dropped 6 million gil. And I expect they will drop even further before the game shuts down.

Why? Well for starters, I think they aren't actually worth 16 mil and I think most would agree. But also because those people who were willing to drop that kind of cash on these items are broke again. They've lost their purchasing power. And the sellers are being forced to reduce their asking prices to move their product. Otherwise it just rots there. And people are undercutting them, driving the prices even lower.

We will see similar things happen after the game's reboot at the start and well on into the game's life. That's just how it works in these games. It shouldn't really be new to anyone who is an MMO vet.

[viion]

I didn't go through all of your posts and I never said you guaranteed anything, did I?

I was pointing out there is no guarantees in gambling.

You think Vanya will be worth a lot more than 1/10 of the current pricing because people will likely to buy them for maybe just 6/10 of the current pricing. If it's true it just means Vanya will be in higher demand in ARR (or harder to make or whatever). This has nothing to do with gil redenomination.

You can well stack them right now even if there's no gil redenomination. When ARR comes, they can well be worth 12m instead of the 2m today.

It has everything to do with ARR changes, and nothing to do with the gil redenomination.

Nothing right now will make all items 50% more over night in this economy. The redenomination allows the possibility of this happening. Even if an item is of exactly same in situations of: Still same difficult to obtain, still same stats value, still same demand, still same supply, it can still increase. Absolute zero effects from outside because its still a good piece that is difficult to obtain. But it is now 50% more. Because of an exploitable market window.

No we will never know the cause, so you can base your argument on that. Until we go into 2.0 and go "Ok, did all stats on all items scale relatively in that Vanya stats are as comparable now to all items as it was in 1.0?" and then "Is it still as difficult to obtain, is it the same synthesis process?" "Will those items cost more but still be same difficult to obtain", "Has no other item made it obsolete?" if all true, no other aspects other than redenomination have affected it.

We won't know this until it happens, and you do have a very strong and likely argument that the inflation of an item will not be caused due to this situation but rather than normal demand of an item due to game mechanics in 2.0, I however am suggesting the game mechanics in 2.0 will not change the way Vanya is obtained or its usefulness. I don't know this, I am assuming, its my prediction.

[Vindrax]

So for that, you can keep your opinions on this situation to yourself since you think they are so pointless. (Which is quite sad that you're here on a forum, arguing with me over something you think is pointless, that is a big waste of time for you.)

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

[viion]

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

[VanillaLatte]

Nothing right now will make all items 50% more over night in this economy. The redenomination allows the possibility of this happening. Even if an item is of exactly same in situations of: Still same difficult to obtain, still same stats value, still same demand, still same supply, it can still increase. Absolute zero effects from outside because its still a good piece that is difficult to obtain. But it is now 50% more. Because of an exploitable market window.

So I think you're saying if we get a gil cut tomorrow - everyone's gil will be 1/10 of what they have today, Vanya will not go down to 200k and will remain at around 1.2m mark from today's 2m mark.

Then can you answer this question? If 1.2m is good enough even after a 1/10 gil cut across the board, why would people sell it for only 2m today and not 12m instead?

note: This scenario is not saying Vanya will go down to 200k or 1.2m right away. The market settling time frame was omitted for simplicity.

[Vanguard319]

*still reading ... munch munch*

viion your point is that you believe once the market stabilizes people will be paying more due to the re-denomination, is that right? So the counterpoint that "people won't pay higher prices" is moot, because they won't have a choice.

I guess I'm still thinking that people will buy what they can afford, and people will only sell what others can buy. Even if there wasn't going to be a re-denomination, item values would shift due to game changes, so your scenario has the potential to be true regardless. Just the same I think an influx of new players (which is inevitable at least for the short term), who all have 0gil to begin with, must have an impact on item prices. Rampant speculation doesn't really accomplish anything, as you've pointed out, but I also don't think there's any reason to worry too much one way or the other.

Ultimately there are far too many factors involved to say "we will lose money due to the re-denomination," especially since the denomination of a currency has no bearing on item cost (or, if any, far less than supply/demand). If prices go up, they would have gone up anyway, and likewise if they go down. This by itself is not a catalyst for a significant market shift in either direction, and even if it is a contributor there is an ever-growing list of things that will contribute far more to valuation of goods.

People don't like being taken advantage of. Those who have been around and know that prices are too high will refuse to buy. Those who don't pay attention... hell, if they have the gil then let them spend it. There's nothing stopping folks who are "losing money" from likewise making it through the same circumstances, as has been pointed out.

Very true, ppl wouldn't keep undercutting if thier market was willing to pay top dollar, and part of economics, whether ingame or in the real world involves taking risks. Whoever can supply the most of a desired item at the lowest cost is going to be successful.

[Vindrax]

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

Actually I didn't see a single post (I could have missed one) that argued against those two points in this entire thread. People are arguing with your concepts of "losing gold" if prices go up with redenomination, and that prices are going to "stabalize" at some point lower than 1.0 prices. Some items are going to have relative value less than they do currently and others are going to be higher. But the redenomination is not the driving force:

Incorrect.

Prices will not balance at 10% exactly, yes, however the reason behind that has little to do with the redenomination, and more to do with the fact that the game will be drastically different - namely crafting/gathering.

Basically what has people so upset over your predictions is that your predictions are extremely obvious to pretty much everyone in this thread (which is why I think there was some confusion), but your basis being the redenomination as the driving force is incorrect.

And all I was trying to say is that until we have more information as to how the game is going to change, investing in items is dangerous because we really do not have the slightest clue as to what is going to be valuable/worthless come ARR. That's my prediction, which is taking your two premise points and actually trying to put something meaningful behind it which is this:

Some people are going to invest (or through sheer luck) stockpile certain items that become tremendously valuable and make out like bandits. Others will try to play the system and invest in items and lose BIG. The most secure way to transfer your funds into ARR will be as gil, because at this point we do not have any additional information that we can draw useful conclusions from.

[viion]

So I think you're saying if we get a gil cut tomorrow - everyone's gil will be 1/10 of what they have today, Vanya will not go down to 200k and will remain at around 1.2m mark from today's 2m mark.

Then can you answer this question? If 1.2m is good enough even after a 1/10 gil cut across the board, why would people sell it for only 2m today and not 12m instead?

note: This scenario is not saying Vanya will go down to 200k or 1.2m right away. The market settling time frame was omitted for simplicity.

You are predicting high amounts that are quite incorrect, if an item goes from 2m to 1.2m instead of 200k it is 600% more valuable, that is too high for this situation. I dont predict all items will gain a 600% increase. and be 6/10ths. I predict 2-3/ths, even at the start, it might be higher, but doesnt matter, i reckon it will stablize at 2-3/10ths.

Taking what I consider to be the increase rate and not that crazy high 6/10ths that I dont believe in.

If you for example have 2m Vanya that goes to 400k instead of 200k, it is 100% more valuable.

That means right now it should be at 4m, Why does it not sell at this? Who knows, it can be because less buyers, it can be because there is a history, it can be because there is ones already up for 2m and so on, there is no panic of sudden loss of money because its a fresh new market where fresh net prices can be set, and people do try sell them at 4m even now. You factor in the high rate at start, 400k (4m) which in current climate reduced to 2m, should state that in 2.0 the 400k will go down to 200k. It might, it might not, I have stated why I do not think it will go down.

Basically what has people so upset over your predictions is that your predictions are extremely obvious to pretty much everyone in this thread (which is why I think there was some confusion), but your basis being the redenomination as the driving force is incorrect.

Redenomination creates a window of opportunity to exploit, people take this advantage and do so. Therefore that might not be directly related to redenomination but more to the fact that people are exploiting a new market with severely less Gil, but redenomination is the cause of less gil, which will trigger the "moods" and "reactions" players have.

I can put blame onto redenomination a number of ways.

[VanillaLatte]

You are predicting high amounts that are quite incorrect, if an item goes from 2m to 1.2m instead of 200k it is 600% more valuable, that is too high for this situation. I dont predict all items will gain a 600% increase. and be 6/10ths. I predict 2-3/ths, even at the start, it might be higher, but doesnt matter, i reckon it will stablize at 2-3/10ths.

Taking what I consider to be the increase rate and not that crazy high 6/10ths that I dont believe in.

If you for example have 2m Vanya that goes to 400k instead of 200k, it is 100% more valuable.

That means right now it should be at 4m, Why does it not sell at this? Who knows, it can be because less buyers, it can be because there is a history, it can be because there is ones already up for 2m and so on, there is no panic of sudden loss of money because its a fresh new market where fresh net prices can be set, and people do try sell them at 4m even now. You factor in the high rate at start, 400k (4m) which in current climate reduced to 2m, should state that in 2.0 the 400k will go down to 200k. It might, it might not, I have stated why I do not think it will go down.



Redenomination creates a window of opportunity to exploit, people take this advantage and do so. Therefore that might not be directly related to redenomination but more to the fact that people are exploiting a new market with severely less Gil, but redenomination is the cause of less gil, which will trigger the "moods" and "reactions" players have.

I can put blame onto redenomination a number of ways.

My mistake on the calculation.
I meant to make it 2m to 320k, not 1.2m.

However my point remains. You don't have an answer because it doesn't make sense. No buyers? why will there be buyers with the gil cut. Price history? the history changes everyday already depending on supply and demand - people price things at the highest sellable point.

The "moods' and "reactions" or "impulse buys" are the suckers, unfortunately, that will be buying at over-priced mark during the initial settling time frame.

If for anything, people will be more cautious and less willing to buy things in ARR because they feel they have less gil after the redenomination.

edit: I agree there will be a "settling time" window but it's not created by the redenomination. It's created by game changes. IF there is no redenomination, Vanya 2m today can become 10m in ARR as well. It will not go straight to 10m right away, but it will gradually settle there. It's purely supply and demand and the relative value of the item (compare to other items) in the game.