ARR Gil Cap Reduction

[Duuude007]

Matsume... they're not reducing the gil cap. They're reducing all gil values in game to 10% of what they are now. The scenario you spent on so long to write up has no relevance to this as it can be done with or without a new denomination.

Yay for people still not getting it.

/facepalm

Exactly. the rich will inflate whenever there is a new source of profit, like atomos drop values cause relic parts to skyrocket, people can afford insane prices, so prices continue to rise.

[NoctisUmbra]

@ Enri

This has been addressed multiple times. When every single player in the game has 10% of the gil they used to, it is ridiculously silly to think prices on the player-controlled market will not drop as a result.

Whether they drop exactly to 10% is irrelevant, as the values of almost everything will change in 2.0 along with crafting, gathering and drop rate changes.

[Niryet]

Yay for people still not getting it.

Well, it was fun to read at first but after, what, 30 pages it's pretty frustrating to see. Heh.

As for the actual change, I don't really see why SE feel they need to do it but I trust them that it's necessary. Either way is fine by me.

[Matsume]

Matsume... they're not reducing the gil cap. They're reducing all gil values in game to 10% of what they are now. The scenario you spent on so long to write up has no relevance to this as it can be done with or without a new denomination.

Yay for people still not getting it.

/facepalm

Sorry to break it to you, but, even if i mis interpreted the gil cap reduction bit, the scenario still plays out. It doesnt matter if gil cap is reduced or not. The underlieing problem I highlighted is how the rich can easily take advantage of the poor and get even richer.

Yay for people still not getting it.

/facepalm

case in point:

The problem with this idea is that the economy is user controlled, no matter what kind of choke-hold they put on decreasing NPC's buying amounts the players will decide how much they want for something they farm/craft/re-sell.

Like many have said before, the have's will have a nice pillow of money while they have-nots will have no way to make enough to compete from the launch.. it will be like FFXI all over again right after international release Rise Of Zilart..

All you did was point out one misinterpretation as if it would make the rest of my post wrong but unfortunately the gil cap reduction or not has no effect on the scenario. Please reread it. And tell me what will stop the rich from taking advantage of the poor? So the gil cap isnt reduced, instead of spending excess gil on mats the just horde the excess gil what difference does that make?

[Niryet]

The underlieing problem I highlighted is how the rich can easily take advantage of the poor and get even richer. :

The rich can already take advantage of the poor with the current system.

[Aion]

Im poor gimme some

[NoctisUmbra]

Sorry to break it to you, but, even if i mis interpreted the gil cap reduction bit, the scenario still plays out. It doesnt matter if gil cap is reduced or not. The underlieing problem I highlighted is how the rich can easily take advantage of the poor and get even richer.

Yay for people still not getting it.

/facepalm

Like I said, your scenario can be done right now. With no change. It has nothing to do with the change to gil denomination. That hypothetical scenario is one of an insanely rich person using his resources to monopolize a market. It has absolutely nothing to do with a redenomination.

Stop posting for a bit and think it out. Go wiki redenomination as well. It should help.

[Issachar]

Opinions, opinions everywhere.

The fact of the matter is the AH won't scale down in parallel with the gil change. You haven't played many MMOs for any discernible amount of time if you honestly think otherwise. In ANY online game where currency and economy exists, any change in value of currency, tokens, or anything as such always causes immediate, but not permanent, inflation. Face it and suck it up, it's going to be a crafter's paradise at launch.

This is not an opinion, this is a fact and an inevitability. I'm going to be making bank off you folk that aren't preparing, so it's win/win anyways.

[Enri]

What will prevent this from happening:

Gillionaire has 999mil gil. 900 normal players have 1 mil gil each. Gillionaire Spends 900mil gil equally amongst each player buying up all the HQ materials in the game causing short term hyper inflation. Gillionaire now has all the HQ materials on the AH + 99 milion gil. 900 normal players now have 2 mil each. ARR launches, Gillionaire still has all the HQ materials, and now 9.9 mil gil while the 900 normal players only have 200K. Normal players now want to buy HQ crafted gear that gillionaire makes. Gillionaire sells back the now transformed HQ materials to the players he bought them from for 150K each (1.5mil pre ARR); Normal Players pay 50% more than they had sold materials for cause Gillionaire controls the market and they have no choice but to buy at his prices. Gillionaire now has 9.9mil + 900x 150K (135mil). Gillionaire spends excess gil on HQ materials ensuring he maintains control of the market.

The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Am I missing something?

The gil cap reduction looks good on paper and in theory, but then again so did those mortgage backed securities and derivatives that caused the world wide economic crisis.

Obviously, I am imagining the worst case scenario where the rich take advantage of the poor, but show me proof that this doesn't already happen?

SO, what measures will be put into effect to prevent players from doing this? I know that the morning after the official announcement on the Live Producer Letter that literally all materia were bought off the AH on my server. What's to stop them from hoarding all the HQ darksteel/gold/mythril/cobalt/electrum ore?

New items? Increase in level cap? New recipes? New base materials?

Oh, silly me!
I love selling things and being the Personal Assistant of everyone for Gil (note the sarcasm)
So I'm going to do it all over again, wich is totally fun!
But hey, that's no problem! I wasn't working like a slave at all
(I feel like one of those retired old man that just found out their pension is getting reduced)

That won't really help but they're doing it anyways.
(Jus remember, in some games with low money cap players invented Tokens. For example, a game really famous in Steam had a gil cap of 400kk in wich players started trading Tokens of 1.200kk. That's just an example. If that's the case, we'll loose 10% of what we had plus the token obtaining problem.)

Reducing everything a 10% will reduce inflation and prevent it in the future (since they're suppose to release some new content that the NPC's will sell -since the more we buy to NPCs will be less actual money)

That is in theory.
Excuse me if I remain skeptical about how good this is going to work.

[Matsume]

Like I said, your scenario can be done right now. With no change. It has nothing to do with the change to gil denomination. That hypothetical scenario is one of an insanely rich person using his resources to monopolize a market. It has absolutely nothing to do with a redenomination.

Stop posting for a bit and think it out. Go wiki redenomination as well. It should help.

Look I fully understand the economic principals involved. Matter of fact your comment about me using the term gil cap had nothing to do with the situation i was proposing. Yes, you are entirely right that the situation I am purporting can be done right now, and is being done right now. Yet, you don't think the gil reduction could exacerbate the issue?

All these people who say, oh this will be just like FFXI where gil was hard to come by. Well as a max lvl leathercrafter in FFXI I also remember a number of oversights that led to gil producing exploits (bot fishing for rusty caps for example). I undestand how much easier it will be to work with smaller numbers from a developers stand point over the long term but the question remains:

what will SE do to prevent this from happening again? Do you honestly think SE wont include some sort of oversight wherein players will take advantage of npc buyback prices leading to a flood in gil? I know they are planning all these gil sinks but I am weary, Noctis. This happens every time. At this very moment, for example, I know a special someone buying a NQ item on the wards, crafting it, and npcing the result at no less than 1mil gil profit per hour. On two accounts at the same time.

So if all goes well in lala land, all gil vaues are reduced by one digit. If players follow through accordingly, this friend of mine still makes 100K per hour profit (per account) just npcing an item he buys off the wards. Oh and for those of you who will say "you can make way more than 1mil an hour farming mats for relic weapons" I know this very well, but the money you would get by doing this comes from another player, not from an npc.

Essentially SE's main problem is the fact that more money is going into the game than going out. It's that simple. This is all a big bet on wether or not player housing and other forms of gil sinks yet to be implemented will balance gil in/gil out. If gil sinks > gil generators then giland items will maintain value. But if gil sinks < gil generators then hyper inflation is inevitable.

All we can do is wait and see.