Demiatma drop rates are unacceptable

[Supersnow845]

It’s because this is a functional grind people just don’t really understand probability and tend to remember bad events but not good ones

Here’s some stats for anyone interested. These aren’t perfect because distribution of Fates and CE’s on OC is not even but it gives you a ballpark figure

If you only participate in CE’s the mean number of CE’s you need to get 18 atma’s assuming they are 6 sets of 3 generated indecently and all excess is worthless is 90

Mean= 90 (18000 silver)
84% of people will have 18 before 109 (21800 silver)
97.5% of people will have 18 before 128 (25600 silver)
99.85% of people will have 18 before 147 (29400 silver)

Okay so what if you also do fates. Using 3 fates per CE

The mean number of “CE blocks” (3 fates and 1 CE) to get 18 demiatma again assuming 6 independent sets of 3 with all excess being useless is 51

Mean=51 (14790 silver)
84% of people will have 18 before 61 (17690 silver)
97.5% of people will have 18 before 72 (20880 silver)
99.85% of people will have 18 before 83 (24070 silver)

So the overwhelming amount of people will be either at or just short of the goal by the time they buy their first +0 set and only a vanishingly small minority would take till they have enough silver to get +1 to get the drops needed

For anyone interested based on requiring 3 of 6 independent atma assuming that each atma is equal (it’s not but I can’t simulate how unevenly they are distributed) the mean number of atma needed to be collected to get 18 “correct” atma is 22.2

If I was to take an extreme generalisation of bias on the distribution of the atma’s and say the two most quoted rarer ones (malachite and vedegris) are half as likely to show up as the other 4 then 99.85% of people will still have all of the atma after 147 CE blocks which is JUST enough to have enough silver to get one set of gear to +1 ignoring gold