Quote Originally Posted by Jeeqbit View Post
After doing this for almost 2 weeks, it's pretty clear that the droprate from CEs is 20% and the droprate from FATEs is 5%. We are way beyond the margin of error now. The droprate from CEs is more than 3 times higher than FATEs and it's not even close.

The main issue is really that there are some areas in OC that only have 1 CE. Despite how much Atma I have, I have no Orpiment, because it's just FATEs, a pot FATE or 2 very rarely spawned CEs. I think there is one of them I have never seen actually.
P(drop) = 1-((1-p)^n), where p is the average drop rate and n is the number of times you've rolled. (Multiply the statistics from FATEs and CEs before subtracting the result from 1 to get the aggregate.)

While p is higher for CEs than FATEs, the fact they take longer and spawn less frequently about evens out. From what I've observed instances of OC cycle CEs (and maybe FATEs) before stopping admission to new players and letting the instance die. While CEs have a higher p value, the fact you can raise n faster by doing overworld FATEs means if you're trying to get a specific color it's more efficient to roll the dice time and again outside of OC than waiting or hoping for one you need (or a CE) inside.