Okay I'm fairly sure it's not a firewall anymore, I've done lots of fancy registry edit stuff to give FFXIV the proper permissions. And it's not throwing up those alerts anymore, but it's still closing shortly after I hit play and the game window comes up. It's like a black screen for a few seconds then crashes, but not a crash because no report is generated.

Honestly if this is just "a VM with these specifications cannot run FFXIV" I'd like to know that.