I think there’s a good chance you’re right about ultimates being why jobs are designed the way they are now. If all jobs’s rotations are built around the a similar plan (in this case, doing strong bursts windows), and also they’re generally not especially complicated, they’re going to hopefully be easier to balance in ultimates.

But if they don’t prioritize having every job be similarly balanced in ultimate, then there’s a greater chance that a weaker job would be bad enough to be actually unviable. This could be really frustrating with how the gear system currently works. If you only like one job in your role (or are a melee that doesn’t like the job that shares gear with your main) then you might have to spend weeks getting all the gear for another job. If the devs are ok with the risk of less balance in ultimate then they would have to make it easier to play multiple jobs.

It does seem like jobs are simpler so newer players can get into raiding more easily, as they have less mistakes to make and are hopefully more likely to do enough damage. But I’d prefer the game give newer players better ways to actually learn to play their jobs rather than to make jobs less interesting for all of us. An extreme example is that although some healers complain they only press two buttons to do damage, some new raiders playing healer still won’t do enough damage if they don’t know that healer damage actually matters and that they should try to keep their gcd rolling whenever they can.