FFXIV population decline continues

[SWATomega]

So I'll give my two gil what i think is happening. I think our expectations were too high or they were dashed be dawntrail. Reasoning is what we just came from, we just had the original story conclude many if not all plot lines were tied up. We were expecting to have the next expansion to be just like Shadow Bringers and Endwalker. The problem is how to follow up with content that was just as good as those two expansions when a new 10-year story is to begin. We came from characters we liked, WE were front and center to all that was happening, and we went from moment to moment, action to action.

Then we play the DT MSQ and we get characters that people don't like, where our character is in the background, and things are slow-moving. It is a jarring mental change; we wanted more but to start a new thing had to slow down story-wise.

I even kinda expected Dawntrail would be a rough patch for us, realistically how were they supposed to make DT truly equal or even out due ShB or EW. We come this super high in our character and other character development, we beat the bad guy, stop the man behind the curtain, and then save another world. Then we went to, you're a supporting character until the very end, it is a hard shift.

I do see the doom and gloom that FFXIV is dead, won't recover, yada yada yada. I think the player base will be okay, we are in a rough patch for FFXIV but I truly believe we will be fine. DT isn't done yet we still have 7.2 - 7.5 left, and we still have additional activities left, plus other stuff. I know that people hate the patch cycle on how slow it is or how spaced it is, but honestly nothing we can do there that is all the dev team.

This is what i think, i could be right or wrong on this. I love the game, the population will go up and down depending on a bunch of stuff but we'll be fine overall. I just want to UNGA BUNGA MORE and want Hrothgal armor for shoulders and long gloves to be fixed.

[Jeeqbit]

We were expecting to have the next expansion to be just like Shadow Bringers and Endwalker.

I don't think most people were expecting that, to be fair.

I do see the doom and gloom that FFXIV is dead, won't recover, yada yada yada. I think the player base will be okay

I don't think it will be okay. I know it will be okay. People return eventually when something good happens.

As for the game itself... still see hundreds of parties for High-End content and lots and lots of people progging chaotic. It feels like it's booming if you join parties for that. On Dynamis I've met lots of sprouts in mentor roulette, and found full Ocean Fishing parties. I'm not seeing practical evidence of this "decline" reflected in the game.

But also, worst case scenario, if the population became a quarter of what it has been, it would just be like Heavensward and Stormblood which were fine.

[AlanJust]

I don't think most people were expecting that, to be fair.
I don't think it will be okay. I know it will be okay. People return eventually when something good happens.

As for the game itself... still see hundreds of parties for High-End content and lots and lots of people progging chaotic. It feels like it's booming if you join parties for that. On Dynamis I've met lots of sprouts in mentor roulette, and found full Ocean Fishing parties. I'm not seeing practical evidence of this "decline" reflected in the game.

But also, worst case scenario, if the population became a quarter of what it has been, it would just be like Heavensward and Stormblood which were fine.

Bloody hell I have never seen such levels of coping, ngl I almost thought you were trolling

[Jeeqbit]

Bloody hell I have never seen such levels of coping, ngl I almost thought you were trolling

I am talking from 10 years experience playing the game. That is how I know.

[Zackneifein]

I don't think most people were expecting that, to be fair.
I don't think it will be okay. I know it will be okay. People return eventually when something good happens.

As for the game itself... still see hundreds of parties for High-End content and lots and lots of people progging chaotic. It feels like it's booming if you join parties for that. On Dynamis I've met lots of sprouts in mentor roulette, and found full Ocean Fishing parties. I'm not seeing practical evidence of this "decline" reflected in the game.

But also, worst case scenario, if the population became a quarter of what it has been, it would just be like Heavensward and Stormblood which were fine.

If the population of FFXIV fall that low, there is a high chance that Square Enix is going to put it in "maintenance mode" for ever, without any more content added.
"like Heavensward and Stormblood" could obvisouly be enough for players, but won't be close to enough for SE to continue to invest in it. There is even a chance that it would be the moment they decide to invest in a new one.

And if that happen FFXIV won't die, but will "end" in a sense.

Square Enix isn't known to be very patient with online game in decline, that's why they killed nearly all of their gatcha game even when they were just easy cash.

[Jeeqbit]

"like Heavensward and Stormblood" could obvisouly be enough for players, but won't be close to enough for SE to continue to invest in it.

They wouldn't need to if the remaining population sustained it financially (the game supporting itself). The mog station also exists, which was added as a way to get extra funds to support the game.

Square Enix isn't known to be very patient with online game in decline, that's why they killed nearly all of their gatcha game even when they were just easy cash.

Like how they weren't patient with 1.0 and waited 2 years for it to be remade?

I think that they only kill games with no fans. Which those games obviously don't have. FFXIV was different, even in 1.0, and that's why they bothered. They even said that was the only reason they bothered.

[Zackneifein]

They wouldn't need to if the remaining population sustained it financially (the game supporting itself). The mog station also exists, which was added as a way to get extra funds to support the game.
Like how they weren't patient with 1.0 and waited 2 years for it to be remade?

I think that they only kill games with no fans. Which those games obviously don't have. FFXIV was different, even in 1.0, and that's why they bothered. They even said that was the only reason they bothered.

Support itself is maintenance mode, not "I will release an expansion every two years and five patches between each" mode.

And 1.0 -> 2.0 was two things : a do or die moment for Square Enix where they made the right choice about their last released game that transformed a disaster that could have killed them in a marvelous success and, more important, was more than 10 years ago.
Square Enix isn't the same company than back then and their strategies aren't the same neither, and a 10+ years game with a declining population will never have the same amount of risk taken for.

And there was a Final Fantasy game nearly as old as FFXIV in the mobile game they killed, that had a very large fanbase before... declining slowly but surely.

[Jeeqbit]

Support itself is maintenance mode, not "I will release an expansion every two years and five patches between each" mode.

Not necessarily. It depends how much revenue it actually generates. As I said, we were fine in Heavensward and Stormblood.

But all that isn't a realistic scenario at the moment. It's also a Final Fantasy game so people will play it purely because of that and none of the other reasons people are coming up with like "content" or "metas".

[Zackneifein]

Not necessarily. It depends how much revenue it actually generates. As I said, we were fine in Heavensward and Stormblood.

But all that isn't a realistic scenario at the moment. It's also a Final Fantasy game so people will play it purely because of that and none of the other reasons people are coming up with like "content" or "metas".

Sorry but that not how it works. The game now as a maintenance cost (due to many things) far higher than it was during Heavenswoard and Stormblood.
And another "stupid but true" reflexe about this kind of situation in most company, is that a something that for a time brought in 10 and was seen as a success, then grown enought to bring in 100 will be seen as a dying failure if it end up bringing in only 30 even if it's still 3 times better than it was and will be abandonned. I have seen this in so many companies projects, in gaming and elsewhere that I instinctly know that it's exactly what would happen.

Just look at all the studios that fired people in gaming industry because or even closed some of those studios because they "lost the economic growth they gained during Covid period" while the current economic growth is still better than it was before Covid - even when anyone with a brain can understand that Covid time was a golden age for gaming.

And I agree with you last point, that litteraly what I was saying, FFXIV becoming a static MMO in maintenance, like FFXI.

[ViinaS]

I think our expectations were too high or they were dashed be dawntrail.[...] We were expecting to have the next expansion to be just like Shadow Bringers and Endwalker.

That is just not true and you know that. People were fully aware of it being the start of a new Arc and did not expect ShB or EW. They expected another ARR. And we didn't even get that. We got a godawful story that fails to set up anything except a Mac Guffin for a concept we already knew of, being Shard Traveling.

DT isn't done yet we still have 7.2 - 7.5 left, and we still have additional activities left, plus other stuff. I know that people hate the patch cycle on how slow it is or how spaced it is, but honestly nothing we can do there that is all the dev team.

That's not a positive. Realisticaly the devs and SE are very bad at stepping out of their formular. So the necessary changes will be 7.3 or 7.4 the earliest. I also highly doubt the Exploration Zone will be good. It will msot likely be a repainted Bozja cause they are so stuck in the mud with "it worked the last time, just copy paste" which can be clearly seen in the MSQ structure.
Not to mention eahc of those patches is almost half a year of nothing new after.
So if they don't cram in 8.0 prelude into 7.5 they have 2 patches to fix things or DT will be an entire flop.