What exactly were Zoraal Ja's logistical war plans?

[Waffleiron70]

I find it difficult to grasp what Zoraal Ja was thinking in regards to his world-conquering ambitions. Specifically, I'm referring to his plans as they existed from prior to Dawntrail, up through the first part of the Dawntrail MSQ. During the time period where he planned to use the forces of Tural to conquer and forcibly unite the rest of the world, starting with Garlemald.

I get that he was a big fish in a small pond. That he did not comprehend the scale or sophistication of war across the salt. It's perfectly reasonable that he simply didn't realize how outclassed Tural would be militarily.

What I don't get is how he could look at a map, ponder the logistics for more than five seconds, and still conclude "yeah, I can do this."

Picking Garlemald as a first target makes sense from a military and diplomatic standpoint. They've been terribly weakened by the events of Shadowbringers and Endwalker, and their prior imperialist actions have limited their prospects for outside military help. So he's clearly put at at least some thought into what he's doing.

But how does he plan to move his army or supply lines? He leads a nation with no blue water navy, no blue water merchant marine, and not even a single deep-water port. Does he expect to hire Lominsan merchant shipping to move his army and supplies, despite his not-exactly-secret plans to eventually invade Eorzea? Does he plan to spend several years constructing port facilities and building a navy from scratch, all the while hoping Garlemald doesn't recover while he's doing this?

Or has he just never bothered to inquire as to the experiences of a single returned Silverscale regarding just how long and complex the journey across the salt actually is?

[Cleretic]

Or has he just never bothered to inquire as to the experiences of a single returned Silverscale regarding just how long and complex the journey across the salt actually is?

That, basically.

Zoraal Ja has a demonstrably hugely inflated image of his own combat prowess, and that's an image that probably extends to his view of the people he commands. But you watch him during the rite of succession, and even afterwards in the first attack on Tuliyollal, and you see that his ego is his only plan. He's a Soulsborne player who thinks the only way to play the game is 'solo dex build', his plan is just to personally walk in there and brute force the solution. His war plan against the Three Great Continents was absolutely to just sail east and take his twinfangs to the first world leader he sets his eyes on.

And weirdly, that might actually get him somewhere? I don't know if he'd beeline for Garlemald or just start an eastward push with the first place he sets land on, but both of those are pretty good starts; if he goes for Garlemald he's basically just aiming at a bunch of spineless bureaucrats that are the only guys left in charge, he can easily handle that. If he just starts where he finds himself there's even chance he either starts in Limsa or Sharlayan; Limsa's not looking great for him but he might get the first strike, and he can absolutely overpower Old Sharlayan. His step two is a failure in every single scenario, but the step one might actually work.

[Iscah]

If he just starts where he finds himself there's even chance he either starts in Limsa or Sharlayan; Limsa's not looking great for him but he might get the first strike, and he can absolutely overpower Old Sharlayan.

Sharlayan is probably a pretty good tactical target, depending on whether they're as peaceful as they look or if they're loaded up with defence mechanisms, and Zoraal Ja would have heard a lot about them from Koana.

If they are indeed an easy target, you capture them and you've got access to all their research and scientists and prevent them from being available for the rest of the Eorzean alliance to consult with.

Alternately his plan could have been to sail west from the western side of Tural – if you've got to build a port anyway, it can be put wherever it works best – and there might be a relatively clear path through the Azim Steppe and other sparsely populated areas. But I don't think we know a lot about exactly what is there.

[Kuroka]

Alexandria only really got the leg up over Tuliyollal with its surprise attack and shock and awe tactics. Once Koana and Wuk Lamat organize a defense, the people of Tural hold their own against the otherwise technologically superior nation and only really need help dismantling Alexandria's air force.

And i bet even that was more of a Time issue, even without the aid they got, there surely would be some beasts to ride or magics to use....

[Aedwyn]

The logistics are a huge stumbling block for his ambitions, to be sure. Tural is kind of just barely unified in the first place, as we see with the various factions we meet in DT that just plain don't like each other. Prior to DT it is a weak and largely artificial nation held together exclusively by Gulool Ja Ja's charisma and fame vs generations of traditional infighting.

But, giving Zoraal Ja the benefit of the doubt that he could even get his fledgling forces over to Ilsabard, Garlemald more or less is not a functional nation itself and would genuinely be easy pickings. It no longer has a standing army of any notable size and what is left is fragmented without a central command structure. It has a weakened and shrunk population governed by cowardly bureacrats who barely do anything besides consume air and food. Tural could then maybe parlay the few solid resources they'd gain from this endeavor (Cereuleum and leftover magitek) to maybe do something. Possibly. If he's lucky and doesn't just freeze to death. After all, even the Eorzeans struggled to survive against the elements alone with the foreknowledge of just how bad the climate is up there.

There's very little gain for Tural and a high degree of risk. I'm not sure his "we need to teach the new generation how bad war is" schtick he spouts early in the expansion really serves as a strong enough justification for what is ultimately a really bad bet.

[Dikatis]

he can absolutely overpower Old Sharlayan.

Nope. Old Sharlayan is militarily a powerhouse despite abhorring war. They have by far the most powerful magicks and magic-powered technology of any activen nation in the setting and even the Garlean Empire loathes the idea of trying to invade it. Koana's reasoning for trying to rapidly industrialize Tuliyollal and the rest of Tural is to emulate Sharlayan's example and deter outside attackers. And they do have many active fighters and peacekeepers. Just see the Scions and people like Lalah Jinjahl.

The logistics are a huge stumbling block for his ambitions, to be sure. Tural is kind of just barely unified in the first place, as we see with the various factions we meet in DT that just plain don't like each other. Prior to DT it is a weak and largely artificial nation held together exclusively by Gulool Ja Ja's charisma and fame vs generations of traditional infighting.

Not really. Alexandria only really got the leg up over Tuliyollal with its surprise attack and shock and awe tactics. Once Koana and Wuk Lamat organize a defense, the people of Tural hold their own against the otherwise technologically superior nation and only really need help dismantling Alexandria's air force.

[Cleretic]

Nope. Old Sharlayan is militarily a powerhouse despite abhorring war. They have by far the most powerful magicks and magic-powered technology of any activen nation in the setting and even the Garlean Empire loathes the idea of trying to invade it. Koana's reasoning for trying to rapidly industrialize Tuliyollal and the rest of Tural is to emulate Sharlayan's example and deter outside attackers. And they do have many active fighters and peacekeepers. Just see the Scions and people like Lalah Jinjahl.

See, my thought is that the first place he walks into won't be expecting a fight right out the gate, so he's got the strength of basically sucker-punching the first place he aims at. Sharlayan could probably muster a terrifying defense if they need to (we've never seen them try but we'll give them that credit), but if they don't, then literally the only barrier to killing at least a few leaders is 'kind of a lot of stairs'. Limsa's a lot harder to attack, but if their guard is down then it's entirely possible he can kick off his assault with an attempted murder of the Admiral right on first meeting, and who the hell knows what becomes of Limsa if she dies.

Both Sharlayan and Limsa are awful second targets because of the defenses they can rustle up when they need to, and frankly most nations in the game are also terrible first targets. But I genuinely just believe he could sucker-punch the most likely first targets.

Alternately his plan could have been to sail east from the western side of Tural – if you've got to build a port anyway, it can be put wherever it works best – and there might be a relatively clear path through the Azim Steppe and other sparsely populated areas. But I don't think we know a lot about exactly what is there.

Going the other direction is an interesting question. Leaving aside Meracydia as a wildcard since we don't have an exact place for it, the first place he'd hit is probably Hingashi. Hingashi proper is gonna stop him right away; even we haven't met their leaders, there's no way in hell Zoraal Ja gets far enough in to take any serious territory or take down any major leaders, although I could definitely see him getting a few islands. He's unlikely to skip over Hingashi to get to Doma and the Azim Steppe, but he does have a better chance if he somehow does. If he hangs south he gets to Nagxia, which is hard to read; it's the only chance he's got to strike a mainland right off the bat, and it's probably roughly on Doma's level of 'puts up a good fight but is still a bit of a mess', but without knowing their leadership situation it's hard to say if Zoraal Ja's approach would get him anywhere meaningful, or just end him capturing a few seaside hamlets.

Basically, hitting Othard probably gets him lesser immediate gains, but in a way that probably also makes him less enemies.

[Dikatis]

See, my thought is that the first place he walks into won't be expecting a fight right out the gate, so he's got the strength of basically sucker-punching the first place he aims at.

Sharlayan had systems in place to detect the destruction of Zodiark and the inevitable arrival of the Final Days. It'd be shocking if they didn't have an anti-invasion mreasures given that the whole reason for the exodus was a lack of defenses in the Dravanian Hinterlands. Garlemald was wary of trying to invade Sharlayan despite the technological resources it'd have to gain from subjugating it. I fully expect a contingent of Sharlayan archmages to blast most of the Garlean air fleet out of the sky with Comet if they ever tried.

[Waffleiron70]

Sharlayan had systems in place to detect the destruction of Zodiark and the inevitable arrival of the Final Days. It'd be shocking if they didn't have an anti-invasion mreasures given that the whole reason for the exodus was a lack of defenses in the Dravanian Hinterlands. Garlemald was wary of trying to invade Sharlayan despite the technological resources it'd have to gain from subjugating it. I fully expect a contingent of Sharlayan archmages to blast most of the Garlean air fleet out of the sky with Comet if they ever tried.

Given what we've learned of Sharlayan, I have no doubt that they have detailed procedures and plans to detect and respond to a potential invasion. But I also imagine that their response plans are basically a very sophisticated form of "run away." After all, "stand and fight" over a piece of ground is antithetical both to their historical identity as neutral preservers of knowledge, and to their assumed mission of ensuring mankind's survival through the Final Days.

[Cleretic]

Sharlayan had systems in place to detect the destruction of Zodiark and the inevitable arrival of the Final Days. It'd be shocking if they didn't have an anti-invasion mreasures given that the whole reason for the exodus was a lack of defenses in the Dravanian Hinterlands. Garlemald was wary of trying to invade Sharlayan despite the technological resources it'd have to gain from subjugating it. I fully expect a contingent of Sharlayan archmages to blast most of the Garlean air fleet out of the sky with Comet if they ever tried.

Garlemald was a very known foe, though, that attacked in very known ways that they could see coming. Like, I assume they had a dedicated 'Garlean Watcher' shift whose entire job was to watch for big airships coming over the horizon.

What Zoraal Ja isn't is 'Garlean'; he probably has the element of surprise just because they won't see a bunch of Turalians coming for blood. Hell, I could make a genuine case that a pre-Alexandrian Zoraal Ja handles this better than a post-Alexandrian one; Sharlayan's probably a lot better at looking out for and countering airships.