Math, Materia, and How to Succeed at Melding

[REDace0]

i think the moonphase plays a big role too, i can see the full moon is a good phase for double melting with certain jobs

I hear that from people, often in regard to crafting or HQ success as well, and I really really hope we don't go down that road in FFXIV. If for some reason that's currently in the game, I hope it's gone for 2.0. I do not want any of this 'face north for fire synths on windsday' stuff that I heard was actually confirmed in FFXI.

While I'm here, thanks for your post OP! I <3 math and found it easy to read. Might I suggest an alternative tl;dr?

tl;dr - Don't forbidden meld. Ever.

[Molly_Millions]

In other words, if you want good gear be prepared for tons of failure first. Don't come on the forums crying that you blew up your only double melded chest piece trying to get a triple. We're only going to laugh at you.

[Resheph]

Do you have any info for moon phases? Most of the people that I play with tend to think that a full moon increases your odds, while a new moon decreases them. A friend triple melded a pair of hands for me yesterday during full moon phase, on an item I already had double melded a long time ago. What do you folks think?

[Alzelia]

Do you have any info for moon phases? Most of the people that I play with tend to think that a full moon increases your odds, while a new moon decreases them. A friend triple melded a pair of hands for me yesterday during full moon phase, on an item I already had double melded a long time ago. What do you folks think?

I don't think the moon phase has anything to do with melding. I believe the percentages given by the game are completely accurate. I believe that the exact same meld will give the exact same percentages. However I plan to do some testing to check what the actual factors for melding are. I'll list what I think actually does influence your chance of double melding.

Possible factors

HQ versus NQ gear

What materia is already equipped

Materia tier (mind IV vs mind iii)

Materia sub-tier ( mind iii (11) versus mind iii (15))

Materia type (trying to put 2 different materia on the same item)

Item level

[Nero]

I don't think the moon phase has anything to do with melding. I believe the percentages given by the game are completely accurate. I believe that the exact same meld will give the exact same percentages. However I plan to do some testing to check what the actual factors for melding are. I'll list what I think actually does influence your chance of double melding.

Possible factors

HQ versus NQ gear

What materia is already equipped

Materia tier (mind IV vs mind iii)

Materia sub-tier ( mind iii (11) versus mind iii (15))

Materia type (trying to put 2 different materia on the same item)

Item level

As far as i like your Thread, you should consider gathering information about moon-phase and directions as well. SE denied that the 12 has anything to do with it, but wanted to keep it a secret if moon-phases do.

Actually moon-phases and directions had an effect in FFXI, so why not in FFXIV? If not this, the moon-phases didnt need to be there at all.

All triple-melds tier IV i made, including the 5-meld tier I for the crown happend during new-moon btw. i tried it also on different phases, as on full-moon i never got a 4-meld tier I. As i mentioned in a different thread i cant prove it, SE did not deny it. So gathering info's about this, may could help to clarify this topic as well.

[Alzelia]

As far as i like your Thread, you should consider gathering information about moon-phase and directions as well. SE denied that the 12 has anything to do with it, but wanted to keep it a secret if moon-phases do.

Actually moon-phases and directions had an effect in FFXI, so why not in FFXIV? If not this, the moon-phases didnt need to be there at all.

All triple-melds tier IV i made, including the 5-meld tier I for the crown happend during new-moon btw. i tried it also on different phases, as on full-moon i never got a 4-meld tier I. As i mentioned in a different thread i cant prove it, SE did not deny it. So gathering info's about this, may could help to clarify this topic as well.

I'll add a category for that in my records, but it would take a data set of at least 2 thousand melds before I could say anything conclusively about it.

Honestly, this sounds to me like a "Self-fulfilling Prophecy." That is, you believe that a new moon will give you a better chance at double melding, so you decide to wait till the new moon to attempt the meld. And since you do more melding during a full moon than any other time, you get more melds during a full moon. This encourages that belief, and it just goes in a vicious cycle.

[Nero]

Honestly, this sounds to me like a "Self-fulfilling Prophecy." That is, you believe that a new moon will give you a better chance at double melding, so you decide to wait till the new moon to attempt the meld. And since you do more melding during a full moon than any other time, you get more melds during a full moon. This encourages that belief, and it just goes in a vicious cycle.

I get what you are pointing at, which is logical. Problem with that is.. i tried to 5meld for the crown during all moon-phases, while i burned around 200 STR tier I Materia's. Same goes for the tier IV triple meld.. ich tried them a lot, no matter which phase.. when they started to work out at new-moon, i stood on that which does not mean that i never tried on other phases again.

Actually it never did in FFXI. Took down synth data for over a thousand synths back then.
People just like to believe in whatever they want.

So did i, since i was a Bonecrafter.. and now? you believe it didnt have an effect, i did believe it had an effect. SE themself stated "may it does, may it does not". Who is right? you or me?

Exactly my point of gathering data about it.

[SirEdeonX]

This post was very insteresting to read and conforted me a little, since I've been blowing up Sarngas left and right. So thank's the OP for that.

Anyway, I recently applied these notions to try and double meld a weapon with 2 Mind Materia III, so I decided to post my results here and hopefully help some ppl in their melding quest too.

I tried to use the lower tier materias, but didn't always have them. I noticed that the success rate when as low as 28.00% and as high as 30.00%, so I used the 28% value to do the calculations.

Obviously, one would expect 1/.28 = 3.57 weapons would be enough, so I made 4.
For this, the probability of me failing the 4 weapons in a row, would be (.72)^4=26%, which is still very high.
And so indeed I failed these 4.
Then I decided to make 4 more.
Now, the probability of me failing the 8 weapons in a row would be (.72)^8=7%, which is fairly low.
I failed the first 3 and got it at the last one.

The probability of all this happening was around 10%.
It seems to be really really just bad luck, but I can't seem to wonder if there isn't something more or (being a Software Engineer myself) if there's something wrong with their random number generation algorithm XD


EDIT: okay, to be fair, after this incident, i just double melded 3 weapons in a row XD
You're forgiven, SE!!

[heit]

TLDR

What all this boils down to is this very simple fact:
You wanna take a risk, do it yourself.
You wanna be safe, buy it.

PROMOTE THAT MIQOTE! NOWZ

[tymora]

Actually moon-phases and directions had an effect in FFXI, so why not in FFXIV? If not this, the moon-phases didnt need to be there at all.

Actually it never did in FFXI. Took down synth data for over a thousand synths back then.
People just like to believe in whatever they want.
(And because the programming team is different.)

I double-melded Colosseum Loincloth x 2 out of 5 before new moon started.

End of the day, it's a "religion". Just believe in whatever makes you feel good. No need for proof. Even if there is proof to the contrary, people will still think moon phases have an effect.