All things considered, Chaos isn't that bad right now, but it's certainly not recovering from 2 years of having people transfer over to get rid of inconveniences like no retainer access, no fc buffs etc for doing raids and such.
However, neither side is congested. If it were *actually* congested at any point in the last 6 weeks, then maybe Shadow would've actually seen some use. With this being week 1, it's just gonna drop off from here.
Shadow has no own population to speak of, so it's actually impossible to go there if you want to do anything as a split group. It's functionally pointless.