The thing I'm noticing is that you're immediately parking all your speculation in Alexandria exclusively. And I don't think that's as much of a given as you seem to; remember that Endwalker's patch MSQ basically left everything that wasn't Thavnair, Garlemald and Sharlayan alone (and Sharlayan basically just got footnotes).

What I suspect is that the patch MSQs will mostly be focused on Tural (with probably a bit of Alexandrian stuff but maybe more on the 'what does international relations between these two nations look like' angle), and the exploration of Alexandria as a society might be mostly left to the Arcadion. Sure, the Arcadion is basically the WWE as far as we've been made aware, but normal raids always take giant weird swerves, I wouldn't be surprised to get a helping of Alexandrian politics in there, and that window would be basically entirely on their terms.