I'm doing no such thing. You completely misunderstood both my both point and the comparison I made. I, in fact, implied the precise opposite: that Dawntrail's issue was a poor writer. Nowhere did I suggest Dawntrail was doomed to fail. What I did say is the story we got was a failure because I believe it was. You're, of course, welcome to disagree but please don't put words in my mouth.
As for the comparison with FFXVI. Did you just... completely ignore why I made that specific comparison? Like I said, XVI has several members of XIV's staff working on it. They had to craft an entirely new storyline with zero prior build up. The insinuation here is Square clearly has talented writers who could have made Dawntrail work as the separate storyline it set out to be but their choice of writer is what ultimately led to such a mixed reception. Put bluntly, I've refuting your stance Dawntrail was at any disadvantage compared to prior expansions due to lacking setup and entirely putting blame on poor writing decisions.
You don't know what to say because you're not actually reading my response and simply erecting a strawman.
Shadowbringers, at its core narrative is about a world on the very brink of annihilation; saved by a hero from out of time and space. It's primary characters are established almost entirely within the expansion itself, namely Emet Selch and the Crystal Exarch. Even Elidibus gets a fairly substantial retcon to better suit the new narrative Ishikawa wants to craft since his previous iteration was fairly one note. Now obviously without the prior expansions setting up the Warriors of Darkness and giving us tidbits on the Ascions, all of this would have to be developed within Shadowbringers but it's hardly a stretch to argue this wouldn't be a difficult undertaking since said setup is fairly small to begin with. We actually don't spend very much time with the Warriors of Darkness, and only Ardbert has any actual character. And like the others mentioned above, his is largely expended upon in Shadowbringers.
Regardless, I literally said all of this. To quote myself, "things would have to change to better accommodate that direction but the core aspect of its narrative are relatively self contained."
Once again, put simply, Shadowbringers didn't need the setup and could have told near identical story within itself, albeit with some necessary changes. Maybe they trim a little of the fat to add these new elements or simply lengthen the MSQ. Either way, the core aspects of the story being told are there without needing Heavensward or Stormblood. It simply benefits from them. On the other hand, Dawntrail didn't have any previous lore restrictions to write around or any necessary retcons yet still managed to trip over itself.