Quite honestly, I just don't see it.

Usually, there is some through line with the changes, to make it easier to play for casuals/people learning the job or to remove some clunk and make the job more fun to play. But for the BLM changes there is no vision. I see a lot of people saying well it's just high end BLM's that will be upset the casuals will love this and it will make the job more approachable, while it might read that it actually isn't going to end up being the case.

To go over it from the start leveling the job is going to be an outright nightmare, pre umbral soul the job just won't function in some older content and for a lot of others it will require black mages to swift a blizzard 1/3/4 before downtime to actually be able to play the game, and even once they get umbral soul the job won't feel good until paradox at 90. I understand it's a very popular opinion that BLM is a nightmare to level but now it just got even worse, and SE should still strive to making leveling jobs as painless as possible so people don't feel forced to buy a level skip. It's both lazy and tone deaf to say jobs will always be miserable to level and not at least make them passable. My only hope for this is an easy fix of at least giving umbral soul way earlier so leveling it feels better and the job can function in older content.

For people learning the job it may read more approachable but the job itself will actually be both harder to play and more punishing. With the removal of sharpcast, ice paradox, and thunder flexibility gone the job actually has net neutral movement even with the guaranteed fire starter proc from AF paradox at best having +0.5, with the added flare star making movement tighter. AF para also has an unintended side effect now being instant there's actually 2 less seconds on the time, because before it would refresh at the end of the cast when you can immediately hit the next GCD but now it refreshes at the start meaning you have 2 seconds of being able to do nothing as the timer ticks down. While with 3 xenoglossy's and high thunder you end up needing more GCD's and more time in AF to dump them without over capping or letting your dot drop despite losing time. You then add into the fact that UI is now a quick two GCD in and out adventure rather then being as long as you need to dump stuff and spend your movement in EW, the rotation ends up being far stricter with much less room for error. All of this being said now AF is more punishing to drop then ever, even losing a fire IV now costs people both that and a flare star. I don't see how people can look at these changes and go "it's more approachable now" it feels like people just looked at the leylines changes and said oh it's more forgiving because you don't have to worry about abandoning 1 oGCD every 2 minutes and ignored the rest of the changes. It's both more punishing and harder to learn.