That's an interesting theory, but it's only one perspective, not actual fact. The divide between the playerbase runs far deeper than simply being tired of being strung along by the nose by random luck or overly long grinds. By creating such barriers of artificial difficulty it became a matter of 'who has the most free time', and issue so profound, that Tanaka overcompensated for it by creating the fatigue system, and thus alienated those with more time.
The key here is to create a balance between progression and luck. Even if it takes an individual a long time to accomplish something, if they can visibly see their progress they'll usually continue along. We're effectively mixing age-old mechanics together. The Donkey and the Carrot, and the Skinner Box. Between the two, you should be able to get what you wan't with the proper helping of determination.
I agree. But Balance must be struck between blind luck and steady determination. Keeping issues about 'elite gear' flooding the game at bay is done easily by things already in progress like the Relic Weapons. Those are things that require both a bit of luck and a good helping of determination. It's a long term goal that players can work towards and if it's not pleasing to others there are alternatives that, while not the best in slot, will be more than serviceable and are not to far behind to be looked at as a determent.But this is a game, not a lifestyle, nor a political system*. And luck has a place in it. A complete, strict meritocracy, one based on skill, would end up either making the game grueling, unforgiving and hardcore, or overrun with elite gear.
There's a logical flaw there, however, comparing a game that is simplistic in its nature to one as encompassing as a Massive multiplayer game.The obsession of many with discarding time-proven mechanics, just because they are what they perceive as "old" is misguided, in my opinion. Backgammon, Parcheesi, Mahjong, Bridge, are games based on age-old mechanics, all of them rely heavily on luck and are still fervidly played and considered by millions every bit as challenging as they were when they were played for the first time, in at least two of those cases, almost a millennium ago.
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In Backgammon, Parchizi, etc, you saw the roll, you knew the game, and there was little else to the game besides an enjoyable time spent. And no matter how many times you played, or how long you played it, you only payed for the game out of the box.
Here, time is quite literally money. You pay every month to be here, you not allowed to see the dice for many events, melding being the exception (And oddly, I find it more thrilling to blow up gear than it is go to do a raid. At least then I'm seeing the gamble in front of my eyes, instead of the wool.)
Given the fact that money is invested, time is invested. Some manner of progress for the work return should be alloted. I'm not talking instant gratification. That actualy is a falacy. People would LIKE instant gratification, but what they truely want or need is the sense of steady progress. They want to see that the time and money spent is responded to by a sense of forward momentum. Once that stalls out, due to exhaustion of content or exhaustion of paitence, then you see subscriptions lost.
Keeping people engaged for the long term is the goal here. Doing it with only a lottery system is going to exhaust the people with bad luck. So, you merge the luck and progress thing together, giving two courses to take to reach your goal. Doing so will keep a wider variety of players engaged. Will it speed progress compared to blind luck? Only for those of the worst kind of luck.
And when gear is all said and done, there will be other distractions, such as PvP, and the Golden Saucer(tentative name). Plenty of other distractions to keep you entertained while you wait for new goals, or just when you need a break from your current goal.
We'll have to keep an eye on how it all plays out together in the long run. I for one am vary intrigued about the future of FFXIV, and am not all that concerned that the mechanics won't pan out properly. Most of my conversation here is academic, and I have good faith that Yoshi-P will get the job done right. It might take a few bumps along the road but I'm willing to accept that, especially given all we have gone through already.
The main thing that concerns me is the tone this community will take for the course of its life. I hope it to be a more upbeat one than Final Fantasy XI was in many circumstances, and some of the mechanics I suggested can insure that.
But if the player-base adapts a more friendly nature due to other things implemented in the game, then they won't be needed.