Heaven's Eye IV

[Asiaine]

One thing perhaps to keep in mind is:
If it is challenging to make your own materia, you can still make other high-demand materia, sell it, then use that gil to buy the materia you really want.

For example, if it is hard to make Heavens Eye, perhaps you can still make Intelligence, sell that, then use the gil for buying the Materia you really want.

[fusional]

the thing is- it isn't a real gil sink. all it does is redistribute the gil to the people selling the materia. (and i suspect there are a lot of RMT PL/burn parties spiritbonding stuff day and night with this explicitly in mind)

if square wants to remove gil from the economy before 2.0 through relic quest (and they should absolutely try), all they have to do is make the materia purchasable from an NPC for a reasonable price. even if it's 500k each, that's still better than the 1-3mil/ea. prices some materia are trending toward.

poor design.

[nvidianello]

I don't think it's poor design at all. At the end of the day it's up to the community to decide on prices. And unless you have you 9 seals and 25k note, which I doubt, then there is no point in rushing to get your double meld weapon when the prices are high. The demand is so high they can get away with high prices. Wait a little, and the prices will eventually drop . Double melded avengers went from 30mil to 14mil in 2 weeks. Just have to be patient :-D

[fusional]

I don't think it's poor design at all. At the end of the day it's up to the community to decide on prices.

community has no control over intentional/artificial inflation at the hands of RMT.

pay attention to your market. when you go from 20 savage might IV (or heaven's fist, or hell's eye) to 50+ seemingly overnight, and the price is going *up*, something is awry.

and furthermore, even if RMT weren't in the picture and assuming the community didn't participate in the inflation- it still only redistributes gil rather than removing it from the economy. that doesn't help the inflation situation at all.

[Arksniper]

pay attention to your market. when you go from 20 savage might IV (or heaven's fist, or hell's eye) to 50+ seemingly overnight, and the price is going *up*, something is awry.

Pay attention to Supply and Demand curve its Eco 101. As prices increase it makes the opportunity cost of producing these Materia more worth it so more will be put on the market. Obv the demand for them makes them worth however much they are otherwise people would SB themselves if the price is too high.

[fusional]

Pay attention to Supply and Demand curve its Eco 101. As prices increase it makes the opportunity cost of producing these Materia more worth it so more will be put on the market. Obv the demand for them makes them worth however much they are otherwise people would SB themselves if the price is too high.

supply/demand and price inflation makes sense when stocks are depleting or staying constant. when stock is increasing and price is increasing, which is generally what's happening with most of these materia (heaven's eye being an exception on some servers simply by virtue of being used for two relics)- it goes against the general behavior of supply/demand and renders your argument invalid.

want a good example of supply/demand in action? compare prices and supply of beastcoins a week ago to prices and supply of beastcoins today.

i meld a lot. i sell triple and quad melds. i watch the market closely. and either you're viewing this through a fog of idealism or you don't really know what's going on here.

[Arksniper]

supply/demand and price inflation makes sense when stocks are depleting or staying constant. when stock is increasing and price is increasing, which is generally what's happening with most of these materia (heaven's eye being an exception on some servers simply by virtue of being used for two relics)- it goes against the general behavior of supply/demand and renders your argument invalid.

want a good example of supply/demand in action? compare prices and supply of beastcoins a week ago to prices and supply of beastcoins today.

i meld a lot. i sell triple and quad melds. i watch the market closely. and either you're viewing this through a fog of idealism or you don't really know what's going on here.

Looking at my server the sell list is at least 20 more per day with 40 sitting on the AH. There are many forces at work here too so i'm not looking through some idealist fog. Before Relics were introduced the materia on my server was around 200-400k iirc. It is currently hovering around 1 mil.

Looking at the current price selling history it has a fluctuation from 998k to 1.380 mil it has slowly crept up over time but this is due to the raise in demand for people who are looking to make some money and have the capital to put forth for it as they will pass it on to the buyer + profit. It is simply more valuable now than it was back then as 2 Relics depend on it.

With the double meld success rate at around 16% you are looking at a 1/6ish ratio of successful melds so its around 14 materia per weapon on average. So the stock can get run thru in at least 2 days if it isnt constantly replenished and sometimes the stock falls down to 20ish where 10 are at 999,999,999,999 as a placeholder or some other absurd price.

Also looking at the RMT on my server around Cedarwood they aren't wearing SB gear to make this materia. I also find it hard to believe that someone on each server is buying out the supply just to jack the prices. Most likely they are coming from the SB party shouts I see every day and people realizing they can make a decent buck xping with the right hands/necklace

[Elexia]

Pay attention to Supply and Demand curve its Eco 101. As prices increase it makes the opportunity cost of producing these Materia more worth it so more will be put on the market. Obv the demand for them makes them worth however much they are otherwise people would SB themselves if the price is too high.

Uh, if there's a lot of supply to meet the demand, the prices should go down not up nor should it continue to skyrocket.

[Airget]

Uh, if there's a lot of supply to meet the demand, the prices should go down not up nor should it continue to skyrocket.

Supply and demand when it comes to materia and relics isn't a 1-1 Ratio you have to keep in mind it's more of a 1-2 ratio in terms of what can be supplied as well as the variable to even obtain a grade 4 materia. Using my example from yesterday let's look at belts when it comes to materia it's a 4/15 chance to getting the proper materia then from their only a 1/3 chance. If we wanted a more accurate fraction you could say there's only a 4/45 chance of obtaining x materia IV which is only a measly 8% and then to obtain the materia you "need" is a 1/45 which is a 2% chance of obtaining. Now on Gungnir from what I've seen "Dated Tarred Voyager Belts" are the best way to go since they are massed produce most likely for skillup and give you the chance at 4 materias which are used for relics Heaven Eye, Hell Fist, Touch of Rage and Savage Might, with current pricing they go for 1.1mil/450k/500k/750k you have to keep in mind though when it comes to belts there's only a 2.2% chance of obtaining these so basically 1 out of every 45 should grant you said materia.

Now the belt I mentioned before is 13k a piece so if you have to buy 45 belts to get the materia you need that's 585k, of course if variables worked in your favor and you managed to get all 4 of the above materia once in that 50 materia creation then you make some serious bank but more often then not you are given materia you can't use or isn't that useful. So let's say it is 585k to get wheat you want, then you have to take into consideration the time invested in spiritbonding the materia and of courrse the demand.

So you have something like
Maybe 1 belt an hour, I honestly don't know how long it takes to bond in a party it's most likely quicker so I"ll say 15-1hr
15=50 belts bodned in 12.5hrs
30=50 belts bonded in 25hrs
45=50 belts bonded in 37hrs
1h=50 belts bonded in 50hrs

You have to remember supply isn't something that happens in seconds it takes time to obtain the supply and then the demand will of course answer with their wallet.

Another variable Demand has is the aspect of the worth of said item that it's used for. Even if the demand was 1000 materia and say 100 people were interested in relics you have a situation in which say best case scenario everyone gets double meld in 10 materias. So 100x10=1000 materia used up by only 100 people.

Say you can only get a grade IV that needed for relics every 2hrs and maybe 30 people are doing it for 10hrs a day. So 5 materia each is gained by 30 people each which is only 150 grade IV materia. In order to supply that 1k quota those 30 people would need to invest 70hrs to a supply which could easily dwindle down in a matter of hours based on the persistence of the people interested in it.

Because of the % of obtaining a Grade IV, the time it takes to bond, the worth of said Relic as well as the amount of people who want it the pricing is going to stay high until there is something that's worth more.

-----------------

For one last fun thing based on Gungnir's pricing the following is can be said:
Belt=1/45 chance to obtain materia you wanted with 585k investment
Hands=1/27 3.7% chance with best case is 45k a piece so a 1.2mil investment
Head=1/30 3.3% chance with dated walnut 10k a piece so 300k investment
ring=1x2/21 4.7% chance with if 10k a piece 210k investment
Bracelet=1/21 4.7% chance with if 25k a piece 525k investment

So ya a lot of gil is required to arrive at that point and even then it's a risky business since even with all those attempts you may not even end up getting any grade IV materia you can sell to the MW.
5.5%:
THM1=1/18 50k=900k
4.7%:
THM2=1/21 70k=1.47mil
CON1=1/21 45k=945k
CON2=1/21 50k=1.05mil
4.1%:
PUG=1/24 50k=1.2mil
MRD=1/24 70k=1.68mil
LNC=1/24 90k=2.16mil
3.7%:
GLA=1/27 60k=1.62mil
ARC=1/27 90k=2.43mil


So ya if anything should prolly be glad with the current pricing, because of their usage in relics as well as other materia which is just naturally useful the chances of obtaining them and the potential gil needed to obtain it as shown above shows why it's worth as much as it is. That's not even taking into account the additional variables materia has but it's not needed here because when it comes to relics you can use any grade IV of the proper materia but for those who want the best of the best stats a 1/45 turns into a 1/180 which is only a 0.5% to obtain the best grade IV materia that you want lol.

[Tango]

This all just confirms we all need to stop and make some SB grind parties and all get rich now before 2.0

People horded millions of gil for this exact opportunity waiting for something worthwhile to spend their gil on and now we have it.

I really like the idea that we could buy the materia from an NPC this would drain the economy and stabalize the materia market. I think 500k would be awsome for an upper cap.