LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Kaliesto]

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

[Stormpeaks]

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

I mean if we go that route, and we have to take into account every single player in the game that they might disagree with it, why are we even posting ?

In fact, why are you posting ? I don't agree with you, and yet you're posting

see how that goes ?

[MsMisato]

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

Its good indicator of the population since it goes by completed MSQ achievements. What it can't do is different between actual active accounts vs active accounts with multiple alts. the ere is a huge difference in number of active characters vs active paid accounts but SE doesn't release those numbers publicly it why they always go by active players aka characters but luckybancho gives us a good idea thats all.

[CNitsah]

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

It's a pretty good indicator. There is no reason to think suddenly, 50k people put their achievement in private. There is also no reason to think there was proportionally far more players in private in ShB than now. But yeah you shouldn't take the numbers as they are. maybe the fall is only 25 or 28% and not 33. But it indicate a fall in player engagment.

And when you put it with other hints like the data from steam, the general mood on the forum and with content creators, the fact that suddenly there are dozens of houses available after being nearly impossible to get one for a long period of time(I checked the goblet, Shirogane and the Noscea one, and very few are complete. Most zone have between 1 and 7 or 8 houses on 30 available - with the record being 15 free houses), it becomes hard to deny there isn't some sort of loss of interest and disengagement that is stronger than the normal loss during a patch cycle.

At least this metric has the advantage of taking infos indifferently from steam, not steam and playstation. Its default is too not differentiate alts from main accounts, but in absence of official data, that's probably one of the best metric that was presented on this forum lately.

[Sebazy]

And when you put it with other hints like the data from steam, the general mood on the forum and with content creators, the fact that suddenly there are dozens of houses available after being nearly impossible to get one for a long period of time(I checked the goblet, Shirogane and the Noscea one, and very few are complete. Most zone have between 1 and 7 or 8 houses on 30 available - with the record being 15 free houses), it becomes hard to deny there isn't some sort of loss of interest and disengagement that is stronger than the normal loss during a patch cycle.

The housing thing is a definite clear omen yeah. On Ragnarok open plots were a rarity, and when they popped up they would be highly contested. Now in my ward alone there's 4 open slots and the biggest surprise for me was that last I checked, those plots had no bids whatsoever.

Again, it's not cold hard numbers for sure. But when all these little things are all pointing to the same problem, you've got to start wondering.

[Stormpeaks]

.

I mean, those are the auto demolitions from the past 5 days alone... Even if you count that a few of those might be relocations (which honestly is not likely except for the goblet smalls)
Take in mind this is also on Ragnarok alone, multiply that by the number of worlds open, those are people that either quit or forgot to get in their houses, or are on break and didnt even care to keep their house.

Mist, Ward 18, Plot 47 Small 3,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 16 hours ago 6 days ago
Mist, Ward 22, Plot 6 Medium 20,000,000 0 Unavailable Individual 1 day ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 2, Plot 27 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Free Company 13 hours ago 3 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 7, Plot 54 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 5 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 13, Plot 10 Small 3,562,500 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 1 day ago 6 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 15, Plot 21 Medium 17,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 15, Plot 40 Small 3,562,500 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 14 hours ago 1 day ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 15, Plot 47 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 14 hours ago 17 hours ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 24, Plot 25 Small 3,375,000 0 Unavailable Individual 4 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 25, Plot 54 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Free Company 4 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 25, Plot 55 Small 3,375,000 0 Unavailable Free Company 2 days ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 11, Plot 12 Medium 16,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 3 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 13, Plot 14 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 1 day ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 14, Plot 12 Medium 16,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 3 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 19, Plot 48 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 13 hours ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 21, Plot 38 Medium 18,000,000 0 Unavailable Individual 2 days ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 28, Plot 50 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 12 hours ago 1 day ago
Shirogane, Ward 6, Plot 42 Small 3,187,500 0 Unavailable Free Company 1 day ago 1 day ago
Shirogane, Ward 9, Plot 54 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 17 hours ago 3 days ago
Shirogane, Ward 20, Plot 54 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 6 days ago
Shirogane, Ward 23, Plot 56 Small 3,187,500 0 Unavailable Individual 2 days ago 4 days ago
Shirogane, Ward 27, Plot 42 Small 3,187,500 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 5 days ago 5 days ago
Empyreum, Ward 10, Plot 12 Large 50,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 20 hours ago 20 hours ago
Empyreum, Ward 13, Plot 7 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 4 days ago 4 days ago
Empyreum, Ward 13, Plot 48 Medium 17,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 4 days ago 4 days ago
Empyreum, Ward 20, Plot 37 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 3 days ago 3 days ago

[Jojoya]

but you try to be sly and just call em "contrarians".

Looking out from his echo chamber, I am going to be a contrarian.

It's sad that echo chamber has such a small viewport for seeing outside. It's keeping them from looking at the entire picture.

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

It's probably the closest to accurate source players have for census information. People trying to support their opinions will use just about anything others will accept as reasonable.

The problem with the achievement graph is we don't know what date the information was collected for certain. We know he collected data on May 20th for his normal census - was the same data used for 2nd quarter on this graph or did he take another sample at the end of the quarter? If the first, the graph doesn't show any real problems because there would be no 6.4 MSQ achievement information to be included. If the latter, than what the graph shows really would be concerning.

There's also concern about the inherent bias in the achievement data since most players have their character achievements hidden. It's generally only players with a specific reason to make their character achievements public that do say, and those usually fall into achievement hunter or raider categories. That's some fairly specific player activity in a player base that's much more diverse with many that care about neither of those things.

[CNitsah]

There's also concern about the inherent bias in the achievement data since most players have their character achievements hidden.

I don't agree with that. Most people don't care about the achievement, why would they go hide them, they're visible by default. I'm sure the vast majority of player don't even know it's possible.

[edit]
Ok I'm wrong, it's private by default. Thus except being another hint in the direction there is some kind of fall, it's really hard to tell anything with that.

[DPZ2]

Ok I'm wrong, it's private by default. Thus except being another hint in the direction there is some kind of fall, it's really hard to tell anything with that.

I would point out that the numbers obscure an extremely important statistic: paying subscribers who contribute to SE's actual bottom line.

Fiscal Year 2020/2021 about 80 billion yen in net sales (ShadowBringers)
Fiscal Year 2021/2022 about 115 billion yen in net sales (Endwalker)

Year 2021 net sales of 39 billion yen (year 2 ShB)
Year 2023 net sales of 53 billion yen (year 2 EW)

There is no possible interpretation of the 14 billion yen difference in revenue over the second year of each expansion that would lead to "the game is less healthy, financially, in EW".

There is "noise" in these values, as the MMORPG group has Final Fantasy XI and Dragon Quest X included in those numbers.

[CNitsah]

I would point out that the numbers obscure an extremely important statistic: paying subscribers who contribute to SE's actual bottom line.

Fiscal Year 2020/2021 about 80 billion yen in net sales (ShadowBringers)
Fiscal Year 2021/2022 about 115 billion yen in net sales (Endwalker)

Year 2021 net sales of 39 billion yen (year 2 ShB)
Year 2023 net sales of 53 billion yen (year 2 EW)

There is no possible interpretation of the 14 billion yen difference in revenue over the second year of each expansion that would lead to "the game is less healthy, financially, in EW".

There is "noise" in these values, as the MMORPG group has Final Fantasy XI and Dragon Quest X included in those numbers.

I have a question about your 2023 numbers? aren't they 2022. I don't get how we could already have the 2023 numbers while still being in 2023. Or are they the fiscal year that ended in 2023, so from april 2022 to march 2023. In any case make those number pass for the second year of endwalker is kinda sketchy. Until 6.2, most of the players still believed it was just a down time after the finale. 6.2 is the introduction of relics and people still believed relics would be something more than tomes weapons. There is no sale numbers for the period that would have a fall, the moment of break being the 6.3, and it only started very slow.

Once that is said, it would make sense that the number we have are still very high. It even makes sense with the stats presented here. Q2 to Q3 2022 were periods with more players than 2021 (once again, which 2021? the year? the fiscal year that ended in 2021? The fiscal year that ended in 2022) if it's the 2 first the luckybancho numbers make sense, if it's the last option, it's more questionnable. And there is the last

Then there is the other hints I meantionned earlier. The opinion that something is wrong that grew far past the forums, the whole steam numbers fall, that, if they don't have to be taken as a reflection of the whole player base is still a hint, and the fact over the past few weeks, the availability of houses exploded when it was so big in the past.

No, if there is a fall in the playerbase, it's for the last few month. And we have Zero SE official numbers for that period (the last 6 month).

[edit]
Also, I found there are numbers for april 1 to june 30th 2023. 22% drop for the mmo division. https://www.mmorpg.com/news/square-e...les-2000128641. Really, I'm curious to see july to september, because that's what will tell if it's a real fall or a "return to pre-covid" scenario (which to me is kinda dumb to assume for a mmo, the price of the game being ridiculous compared to the other cost and covid full lockdown have ended nearly 2 years ago - went back partial time to the office in september 2021). Also the people complaining and the one who joined during covid are 2 different crowd, so we'll see.