LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Iscah]

Official SE Q2 backs this up, just staying.

"MMO Segment Down". Yeah it's simple business speak but for them to actually admit it means it has to be considerable enough to actually warrant talking about.

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

[Turtledeluxe]

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

They've been using that excuse for a long time and it's worn off. Now we are just looking at declines because the patch content is not retaining players.

It's not like "Oh yeah we just realized this fiscal quarter we had Endwalker"...they aknowledged the effect of Endwalker many quarters ago.

[TomsYoungerBro]

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

[Volgia]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.

[Jeeqbit]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

It doesn't. The original image is saying that specifically achievement hunters (people who enable achievements, which are the hardcore players) are quitting. There is no guarantee that the quitting is permanent. Either way, according to Lucky Bancho, they just get replaced by new and returning players because the overall active player estimate has remained stable throughout the entirety of Endwalker.

The revenue falling in Q2 doesn't mean anything other than that there are patch lulls due to how a lot of content can be done fairly quickly and how the population can reduce the further it gets from an expansion release. It could back up some sort of decline if it were happening over a long period of time, but a single Quarter means nothing really.

[Turtledeluxe]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.

For a long time Destiny 2 was touted as one of the OG successful live service games and it seemed like nothing would take it down. Then the Lightfall expansion happened, revenue dipped 45% and Bungie laid off 100+ people including their logo designer and composer. A lot can change over one or two years. Even if DawnTrail inevitably sees a pop, I would say there's growing negative sentiment brewing already and once people get through MSQ it's just a question of whether those players end up back in a state of discontent. That is what has killed D2-- the assumption that the whales would just always be around to offset the critics. Well it turns out they aren't.

[Striker44]

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

Yeah, in other words comparing Q1 when a new patch released (6.4 in May) to Q2 when no new patch released. Gee, what a surprise that the numbers went up when a new patch came out and went down at the tail end of that patch (in other words, the cyclical nature that applies to virtually every MMO ever). It's amusing when people "lmao" while being oblivious to how they sound.

[DPZ2]

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

Too bad that Square Enix is now in FY2024, not FY2023. FY2023 ended in March of this year. Year-over-year the numbers are down about 18% for the first half of FY2024. Not surprising, since they've put off the next expansion by about six months.

Endwalker was released in FY2022, calendar year was 2021, but financial reports don't work that way.

[SieyaM]

Players could be feeling that with the Hydaelyn and Zodiark arc closing and most if not all plot threads from it being wound up that they are comfortable leaving the game for a while, if not years. Dawntrail promises to be a wholly new story and if people are feeling fatigued after their years long subscription then they could see this as an opportune time to set it aside and maybe come back later if they want or maybe not at all since the story they had been invested in is now supposed to be over.

[Jeeqbit]

Players could be feeling that with the Hydaelyn and Zodiark arc closing and most if not all plot threads from it being wound up that they are comfortable leaving the game for a while, if not years.

Many did say that at Endwalker release and Yoshi-P was aware of this issue. It is actually why he delayed the release of Endwalker so that he could add in the speech at the end about the future of the game and how much there was still for us to explore, such as the ruins beneath the waters of the bounty (Alazadal's Legacy), the fabled golden cities of the New World (Dawntrail), the sacred sites of the forgotten people of the South Sea Isles (Aloalo Island) and the true identities of the Twelve (Myths of the Realm).

We just have Othard's north and Meracydia remaining on that checklist.

For a long time Destiny 2 was touted as one of the OG successful live service games and it seemed like nothing would take it down.

Intial release was in 2017. It wasn't even around for as long as this game has been, which released in 2010 and re-released in 2013. That means this game has had longer to develop a wide variety of content and longer to establish roots in people that make them either not want to leave, or to want to return. It's the same reason that WoW endures hard times where most other MMORPGs do not; it has a backlog of content and a backlog of roots in people that make it hard for them to leave or make them want to return.

Fighting that backlog of content is a big challenge for a new MMORPG and what this game did was to accelerate the amount of dungeons released to 3 and then once we started getting close to 100, it was slowly reduced to 2, then 1 or 2 and then to 1.

The previous exposure to the game is also significant. When they say 20 million adventurers, they are not all subscribed right now, but they are a pool and should any current subscribers quit, they will very likely just be replaced by some of the pool of 20 million former players who return to the game.

This "returner" factor is often not considered by people in this debate but the reality is all those people quitting in protest are being replaced by the pool of 20 million returners from ARR, Heavensward, Stormblood, Shadowbringers or early Endwalker. That is why "how long the game has been around and popular for" is a big factor that gives both FFXIV and WoW an endurance that many MMORPGs will never have.

I've even heard it's the reason Runescape still exists; it's held up by returners who used to play any time between now and 2 decades ago. You would think there is no way that could still be around but it is.

Another factor in this is the IP. It's a Final Fantasy game. Not all MMORPGs have an IP like that bringing in people from 36 years' worth of games.

Even if DawnTrail inevitably sees a pop, I would say there's growing negative sentiment brewing already and once people get through MSQ it's just a question of whether those players end up back in a state of discontent.

Yes and I mean, there could be a decline eventually but overall that is something that will take time both due to the pool of returning players, the rate of new players still joining the game (evident from all the sprouts we see everywhere including in the novice network and regular playthroughs appearing on youtube and twitch) and the fact it takes time for someone with years of achievements in the game to actually detach (for evidence of that we can look at WoW).