LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Stormpeaks]

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I mean, those are the auto demolitions from the past 5 days alone... Even if you count that a few of those might be relocations (which honestly is not likely except for the goblet smalls)
Take in mind this is also on Ragnarok alone, multiply that by the number of worlds open, those are people that either quit or forgot to get in their houses, or are on break and didnt even care to keep their house.

Mist, Ward 18, Plot 47 Small 3,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 16 hours ago 6 days ago
Mist, Ward 22, Plot 6 Medium 20,000,000 0 Unavailable Individual 1 day ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 2, Plot 27 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Free Company 13 hours ago 3 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 7, Plot 54 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 5 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 13, Plot 10 Small 3,562,500 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 1 day ago 6 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 15, Plot 21 Medium 17,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 15, Plot 40 Small 3,562,500 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 14 hours ago 1 day ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 15, Plot 47 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 14 hours ago 17 hours ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 24, Plot 25 Small 3,375,000 0 Unavailable Individual 4 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 25, Plot 54 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Free Company 4 days ago 5 days ago
The Lavender Beds, Ward 25, Plot 55 Small 3,375,000 0 Unavailable Free Company 2 days ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 11, Plot 12 Medium 16,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 3 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 13, Plot 14 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 1 day ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 14, Plot 12 Medium 16,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 3 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 19, Plot 48 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 13 hours ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 21, Plot 38 Medium 18,000,000 0 Unavailable Individual 2 days ago 5 days ago
The Goblet, Ward 28, Plot 50 Small 3,750,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 12 hours ago 1 day ago
Shirogane, Ward 6, Plot 42 Small 3,187,500 0 Unavailable Free Company 1 day ago 1 day ago
Shirogane, Ward 9, Plot 54 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 17 hours ago 3 days ago
Shirogane, Ward 20, Plot 54 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 2 days ago 6 days ago
Shirogane, Ward 23, Plot 56 Small 3,187,500 0 Unavailable Individual 2 days ago 4 days ago
Shirogane, Ward 27, Plot 42 Small 3,187,500 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 5 days ago 5 days ago
Empyreum, Ward 10, Plot 12 Large 50,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 20 hours ago 20 hours ago
Empyreum, Ward 13, Plot 7 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 4 days ago 4 days ago
Empyreum, Ward 13, Plot 48 Medium 17,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 4 days ago 4 days ago
Empyreum, Ward 20, Plot 37 Medium 19,000,000 0 Unavailable Unrestricted 3 days ago 3 days ago

[Jojoya]

but you try to be sly and just call em "contrarians".

Looking out from his echo chamber, I am going to be a contrarian.

It's sad that echo chamber has such a small viewport for seeing outside. It's keeping them from looking at the entire picture.

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

It's probably the closest to accurate source players have for census information. People trying to support their opinions will use just about anything others will accept as reasonable.

The problem with the achievement graph is we don't know what date the information was collected for certain. We know he collected data on May 20th for his normal census - was the same data used for 2nd quarter on this graph or did he take another sample at the end of the quarter? If the first, the graph doesn't show any real problems because there would be no 6.4 MSQ achievement information to be included. If the latter, than what the graph shows really would be concerning.

There's also concern about the inherent bias in the achievement data since most players have their character achievements hidden. It's generally only players with a specific reason to make their character achievements public that do say, and those usually fall into achievement hunter or raider categories. That's some fairly specific player activity in a player base that's much more diverse with many that care about neither of those things.

[CNitsah]

There's also concern about the inherent bias in the achievement data since most players have their character achievements hidden.

I don't agree with that. Most people don't care about the achievement, why would they go hide them, they're visible by default. I'm sure the vast majority of player don't even know it's possible.

[edit]
Ok I'm wrong, it's private by default. Thus except being another hint in the direction there is some kind of fall, it's really hard to tell anything with that.

[Noumenon]

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

You mean 5% of the forums

Don't see the point of using luckyBancho when some of the forum don't agree with it.

You mean anything that portrays the game in a bad light

[Aword3213]

You mean anything that portrays the game in a bad light

It doesn’t have to be something that portrays the game in bad light.

When LuckyBancho, or any other charts, showing significant growth, forum be like: “FFXIV is dying.”

We’ve seen it over and over again in the past few years. Let’s not pretend it didn’t happen.

[DPZ2]

Ok I'm wrong, it's private by default. Thus except being another hint in the direction there is some kind of fall, it's really hard to tell anything with that.

I would point out that the numbers obscure an extremely important statistic: paying subscribers who contribute to SE's actual bottom line.

Fiscal Year 2020/2021 about 80 billion yen in net sales (ShadowBringers)
Fiscal Year 2021/2022 about 115 billion yen in net sales (Endwalker)

Year 2021 net sales of 39 billion yen (year 2 ShB)
Year 2023 net sales of 53 billion yen (year 2 EW)

There is no possible interpretation of the 14 billion yen difference in revenue over the second year of each expansion that would lead to "the game is less healthy, financially, in EW".

There is "noise" in these values, as the MMORPG group has Final Fantasy XI and Dragon Quest X included in those numbers.

[Hanayumi]

There definitely a decline in FFXIV, but will it matter? Not likely... we'll still see the usual surge returnees come patch day and expansion launch. At the moment there really isnt any competition in the MMO world, sure there is WoW but its already the massive hate that far surpasses what FFXIV is getting as of late, it'll take a massive change from a current MMO or a huge release of a new one to start nailing down FFXIVs coffin...

[CNitsah]

I would point out that the numbers obscure an extremely important statistic: paying subscribers who contribute to SE's actual bottom line.

Fiscal Year 2020/2021 about 80 billion yen in net sales (ShadowBringers)
Fiscal Year 2021/2022 about 115 billion yen in net sales (Endwalker)

Year 2021 net sales of 39 billion yen (year 2 ShB)
Year 2023 net sales of 53 billion yen (year 2 EW)

There is no possible interpretation of the 14 billion yen difference in revenue over the second year of each expansion that would lead to "the game is less healthy, financially, in EW".

There is "noise" in these values, as the MMORPG group has Final Fantasy XI and Dragon Quest X included in those numbers.

I have a question about your 2023 numbers? aren't they 2022. I don't get how we could already have the 2023 numbers while still being in 2023. Or are they the fiscal year that ended in 2023, so from april 2022 to march 2023. In any case make those number pass for the second year of endwalker is kinda sketchy. Until 6.2, most of the players still believed it was just a down time after the finale. 6.2 is the introduction of relics and people still believed relics would be something more than tomes weapons. There is no sale numbers for the period that would have a fall, the moment of break being the 6.3, and it only started very slow.

Once that is said, it would make sense that the number we have are still very high. It even makes sense with the stats presented here. Q2 to Q3 2022 were periods with more players than 2021 (once again, which 2021? the year? the fiscal year that ended in 2021? The fiscal year that ended in 2022) if it's the 2 first the luckybancho numbers make sense, if it's the last option, it's more questionnable. And there is the last

Then there is the other hints I meantionned earlier. The opinion that something is wrong that grew far past the forums, the whole steam numbers fall, that, if they don't have to be taken as a reflection of the whole player base is still a hint, and the fact over the past few weeks, the availability of houses exploded when it was so big in the past.

No, if there is a fall in the playerbase, it's for the last few month. And we have Zero SE official numbers for that period (the last 6 month).

[edit]
Also, I found there are numbers for april 1 to june 30th 2023. 22% drop for the mmo division. https://www.mmorpg.com/news/square-e...les-2000128641. Really, I'm curious to see july to september, because that's what will tell if it's a real fall or a "return to pre-covid" scenario (which to me is kinda dumb to assume for a mmo, the price of the game being ridiculous compared to the other cost and covid full lockdown have ended nearly 2 years ago - went back partial time to the office in september 2021). Also the people complaining and the one who joined during covid are 2 different crowd, so we'll see.

[ChonkGoblinSuprem]

I would point out that the numbers obscure an extremely important statistic: paying subscribers who contribute to SE's actual bottom line.

Fiscal Year 2020/2021 about 80 billion yen in net sales (ShadowBringers)
Fiscal Year 2021/2022 about 115 billion yen in net sales (Endwalker)

Year 2021 net sales of 39 billion yen (year 2 ShB)
Year 2023 net sales of 53 billion yen (year 2 EW)

There is no possible interpretation of the 14 billion yen difference in revenue over the second year of each expansion that would lead to "the game is less healthy, financially, in EW".

There is "noise" in these values, as the MMORPG group has Final Fantasy XI and Dragon Quest X included in those numbers.

What the hell are they talking about? Unless math works backwards in Japan, how is them making more money than ever an ominous portent that harkens the end times?

[Erinellza]

Maybe if it declines a bit more I can finally win a mansion.