LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Noumenon]

Thank you Macchi for sharing with us this data.

Has anyone seen this? Lucky Bancho is showing that the "unsub and play other games" faction is winning hardcore. This graph shows the number of people who have gotten a single new achievement in the past month. In other words, active players. Notice how Endwalker compares with the other expansions.



Is this really a good thing, and are we still supposed to like it?

https://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/57775035.html

What was the first impression I had when I saw that graph? It was this graph from WoW:



How eerily close to Cataclysm Endwalker is.

But far more concerning is the number of "terminated" players. An explanation of the graph is in order.

The three colors of each bar add up to the number of active players. Active players are defined by having at least one achievement being registered during the data collection period.

Active players are then split into multiple categories: new, continuation, and terminated.

New means their first achievement was registered during the bar's period. Continuation means they have at least one achievement from the previous period. Terminated means there is no new achievement in the next period.

Please ignore the terminated count for the last quarter. Anyone who focuses on that is promoting hysteria. Why? Because of course, no one has an achievement registered in 2024 since it's in the future.

However, look at how the green part of the bar has grown prior to the latest period. While it was barely noticeable in Heavensward by proportion, look at how large it is in all of Endwalker. People will say: Endwalker has more players total. Yes, but by proportion, percentage of players far more people are turning inactive in Endwalker than in any prior expansion. The much loathed (according to some circles) Heavensward expansion that was apparently the bane of players had barely any termination. The bar corresponding to Gordias had next to no termination. Nor was there much termination in the 3.0-3.1 drought. Or the failure of Diadem.

In Heavensward, Stormblood, and Shadowbringers you actually notice a horizontal crescent shape in the data instead. The expansion launch bringing massive number of active players in, the slight dip, causing the graph to curve slightly downward, and an increase once again starting from the middle of the expansion's life cycle. No such crescent can be observed in Endwalker. It's a straight line down and we should be seeing an increase by now if the crescent shape is to occur.

An alternative explanation may make sense, though it is unlikely to portray the game in a good light either: perhaps those who are labeled as terminated have not actually stopped playing. They simply do next to nothing in the game and do not participate in much content at all in order to get any achievements (not even something simple like clearing Orthos to F20). We all know what these people might be doing in the game (at Quicksand) instead. So to Square Enix, these players are the same $13 to them as anyone who actually bothers to do some content.

Also, this is yet another piece of data that showed that the massive influx at the end of Shadowbringers was a fluke. The number of new players dropped sharply again in Endwalker.

We're now facing a massive decline in this game. We need CBU3 to shape up.

[Snorky]

DOOM! DOOM! Okay okay but I did go read that website they are basising this on achievements and I am going to drop this little blurb I just copy pasted from the website here also.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

You can go read it yourself

[Sindele]

If caring about who you were trying to convince was a criteria for posting around here, we'd hardly have any posts at all. One must simply imagine Sisyphus happy.

[Renathras]

As usual CBU3 defenders have nothing of substance to contribute to any debate beyond memes and mockery.

Okay okay but I did go read that website they are basising this on achievements and I am going to drop this little blurb I just copy pasted from the website here also.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

You can go read it yourself

I mean...that's not "memes and mockery", that's literally something of substance...

Also: This needs to be said, apparently...

People offering counter arugments are not "X defenders".

People are allowed to hold different opinions than you.
People are allowed to express those opinions.
It's not "defenders" when someone is saying "There are other ways to look at the data/other metrics that are also useful to look at if one is trying to get a full and truthful perspective on the actual state of things."

[TomsYoungerBro]

DOOM! DOOM! Okay okay but I did go read that website they are basising this on achievements and I am going to drop this little blurb I just copy pasted from the website here also.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

You can go read it yourself

Guess we have more ERPers/Second Life gamers then. LuckyBancho's requirements on being "Active" is pretty barebones btw.

[Ivtrix]

Guess we have more ERPers/Second Life gamers then. LuckyBancho's requirements on being "Active" is pretty barebones btw.

Yeah. Make no mistake, even if the endwalker trend line falls in line with non shb expansions, the argument that veteran players need more content remains.

[Supersnow845]

Yeah. Make no mistake, even if the endwalker trend line falls in line with non shb expansions, the argument that veteran players need more content remains.

Even if EW falls in line with ShB it still say a lot that 14 completely failed to hold the WOW refugees

No other game would see a massive injection of players, do nothing to retain them have the collective playerbase fall back to long term trends then argue that’s a good thing because they are still on long term trends, we could have had a new long term trend hundreds of thousands of people higher than the old one

[IkaraGreydancer]

Even if EW falls in line with ShB it still say a lot that 14 completely failed to hold the WOW refugees

No other game would see a massive injection of players, do nothing to retain them have the collective playerbase fall back to long term trends then argue that’s a good thing because they are still on long term trends, we could have had a new long term trend hundreds of thousands of people higher than the old one

WoW players were never going to stay anyways. XIV isn't and never will scratch that WoW itch for most people

[Noumenon]

As usual CBU3 defenders have nothing of substance to contribute to any debate beyond memes and mockery.

I mean...that's not "memes and mockery"

Last edited by Snorky; Today at 06:07 PM.

The previous version:

DOOM! DOOM!

[NekiUno]

As usual CBU3 defenders have nothing of substance to contribute to any debate beyond memes and mockery.

Why you say that for? They are just giving their opinion like you are.

Besides, this game is going to keep on going until they shut it down for good and that will be a very long long time before that happens.