Honestly, I do agree the Devs have become somewhat bland in healer thinking. We'll see what they do with AST - we really need to know what that rework looks like since that will signal where they're likely taking the other healers; will it be making it more like WHM/SGE, or more making it like SB AST/SCH? - but I think MOST of what you said could be correct. The specific things I think you aren't right on:
Aero III - They'd more likely call this Banish or something instead, saves them having to rename Wind Lily later.
Afflatus Shelter would NOT come at level 76, it'd be the level 94 or 100 ability. Something I've noticed, even when it would make sense to do so, absent a total rework (like SMN), they do not give new abilities at lower levels than the entering level of the new expansion. Like Afflatus Solace is level 52 now, but when it was added in ShB, wasn't it a higher level? Stoneskin was removed in SB to replace with Benison, but Benison wasn't gained at level 12 or whenever you got old Stoneskin, it was added at 66 or so.
Point is, while possible, I feel like they'd make Shelter the level cap ability, either as new ability or a Trait upgrade of Rapture.
Florescense I could 100% see them doing, though it'd probably be a 60 sec CD, not sure.
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Not sure it's what they will do - when we get some words about the AST rework, we'll have a better idea - but I can agree with that. That and the "new ability for the latest gimmick" like how EW gave us "multi-hit attack" Lilybell, Panhamia, and arguably Macrocosmos (SCH was already pre-ready for this with Seraph...sorta)
EDIT:
Oh, that's the somewhat black pilled take. I'm honestly not really sure what they'll do. That or Rein's predictions would be the "standard" per EW, but I'm not sure if that'll be what they go with or not.
It's also not a "what I would like to see", as I'm honestly not entirely sure on that. My personal desires have more to do with changing up encounter design than healer kits, per se, and abilities added/changed would need to reflect whatever encounter design is changed to. And I'm not sure any such change will be happening.