Time to Quit

[Renathras]

/sigh

Wow, Square Enix is a lot stupider than I thought. Did they really go through all the work of porting this game to PC and putting it on Steam only for 20,000 concurrent players

Do you know the difference between "concurrent players" and "players"?

Suppose a nation has 100,000 drivers in it. But they aren't all on the road at the exact same time. Many are at work. Many are at home. Different people have different schedules. Despite a population of 100k drivers, there may only be 20k drivers on the road at peak times with various lesser amounts at other times. The nation still has 100k drivers. "concurrent" isn't relevant.

Note I didn't say "concurrent" anywhere. Look at what you just quoted.

"So that's between 0.5% and 1% of the playerbase. What about the other 99%"

Where, in that quote, is the word "concurrent"?

This is yet another example of the bad faith goalpost moves I keep talking about that I'm not interested in entertaining other than just soundly debunking you.

As you said yourself in the same message: "Going to need some sources for those numbers". My estimate with 7% is rough, but at least it's based on some sources.

...which are?

Like, I'm specifically asking for what your sources are, not for you to tell me you have some.

20K of all time active players

What do you mean by "all time active players"?

Is this the "concurrent players" bad faith goalpost move I just demolished the person above for making? Note also I said between 1m and 3m total playerbase. Not concurrent playerbase. And that's also not "more popular than any game"; WoW peaked around 13m, and quite a few random games like Runescape have had millions of accounts as well. 1-3m for one of the top MMOs on the planet isn't outlandish.

Your analogy is...

No, my analogy is accurate. If you're arguing that some group makes up a majority or significant portion of the population, the onus is on YOU to prove it. 5% isn't a majority, and it's not always even significant. I even pointed this out with my remark 5% of people in 2016 voted for the Libertarian candidate for US President, yet no one considers that a serious movement or significant portion of the population in any real sense of policy.

Also, give me source of that 1-2 mil, and once you do, I'll respond just like you, and tell you to give me hard data instead.

I'm not asking you for "hard data". I'm asking you for your source. What is your source? You keep saying you have one, yet don't actually link it.

Anyway, that's not the way this works. You don't get to make revealing your source contingent on someone else providing theirs (and I did anyway) in a debate or discussion or scientific paper or any kind of persuasive argument. Either you have a source or you don't, and if you don't and are saying you do, you're lying.

Again, YOU made a claim, so the onus is on YOU to prove it. YOU even said you had sources. But when asked, you don't reveal them. Which either means you don't have sources or you know they're questionable.

For my part, I've consistently pointed out we don't HAVE good sources. We know that several millions of people have created accounts, as SE has said so and we have no reason to dispute those numbers. But that's also a useless metric. "Created account" doesn't say if the person ever logged in, much less still plays the game. The most accurate metric we probably have since it's based on log-ins are the Lucky Bancho numbers, which fluctuate but tend to be between 1-2m, generally 1.5+/-0.3, or 1.2-1.8. It's not a perfect source, but probably the most reliable we have.

I've also used the Steam numbers - CORRECTLY - by comparing to the same time last expansion to see if we've had an apples-to-apples, "expansion on" growth or decline. Something no one has yet refuted either of the times I've presented it.

So there's my "sources". What are yours?

Oh, let me guess, you won't reveal them until I reveal some concrete super source?

...which means you have none or yours is untrustworthy and you know it, and you just refuse to admit you have none/it's untrustworthy. THAT is why you won't reveal it or put conditions on revealing it. If someone has good sources, they reveal them without being asked, or if not then, when asked. The only reason not to is duplicity. Either you don't have any and lied, you know the sources aren't good, or you think they are but want to string someone along without revealing your source proves them wrong and try to give them rope to hang themselves with before dropping your sources - entrapment, in other words - instead of just doing so openly and honestly to begin with.

None of those, btw, is a good look. All of them are bad faith. Some are just WORSE faith than others.

1) Averages of numerous sources which seemed okay.

...which ARE...?

(Also, not that you care - analytic rigor is clearly not of interest to you - but mixing different data sources into an aggregate is a touchy thing that has to be done extremely carefully since different types of data are not always compatible, and of those that are, often require weighting or multipliers played on various datasets to make them compatible; all of which introduce bias. It's a thing that even experienced statisticians have to be very careful with, not something to be done with "rough estimates" on the fly by someone with no intereste in analytic or academic rigor in their efforts.)

I acknowledged that I'm working with rough estimates numerous times, and that hard data are impossible to come by

Then you agree with me, as I've said the same thing several times.

2, 3, 4)

"significant" depends on your perspective. If we're talking less than 1 in 20 people in an MMO, that's not very significant at all.

And lol at "real life politics". I get it clearly debunks your argument so you're desperate for an out, but pointing out 5% isn't much of a given population isn't "politics". Note I didn't bring up any political issue, it's just an easy to point to statistic. I could point out 5% of people support X random thing in life but you'd probably question THAT too, so I'm using something easy to verify to make the point so you can't waft or try a bad faith dodge or derail.

If that is not significant to you, I don't know what is.

Again, significance to what?

If we're talking about the playerbase or the Dev's direction, then "significance" would be "a large percentage of the playerbase". 5% is not a large percent. If a company is going to cater to a specific part of the playerbase at the exclusion of all others, it's generally going to be more than 5%. And especially given FFXIV 1.0's history, Yoshi P and his team are very likely aware of how easy it is to mess up and more cognizant than most to avoid such a thing. (Whether they succeed or not is debatable, but arguing they're now only making the game for ERPers is just asinine.)

You haven't provided any...

Yes, I have.

I directly provided the Steam data, lest you missed it. The post with the picture? That's data.

I provided analysis of it, which wasn't "just completely off topic comparison of some 0.042% rare disease". (That was specifically debunking the argument the game was "dying" or "losing players" and "not growing").

Unlike your "rough estimates", that's hard data you can't argue with, and I provided apples-to-apples analysis of. Something the doomsayers never do, and instead of acknowledging when someone does it, they engage in personal attacks or bad faith goalpost moves.

And you can't go away from posting your source for that 0.5% - 1% claim of yours. Come on, I'll wait, I'm curious where did you get that number. Same goes for that random 1-2 mil you threw in.

I already said this? Not just in this post, but before now.

And, again, this is a dodge. This is you avoiding posting your own sources because you know they're suspect.

Again, when YOU make a claim, the onus is on you to prove it, not other people to disprove it. And trying to get off on a "I'll show you mine ONLY IF you show me yours first" mentality is disingenuous.

"My argument is so strong it will not even need further defending, I'm always right waaah" - Ren Shapiro, 2023

/yawn

And this is why I didn't want to engage with you and those like you. It's like arguing with a child. A very WHINY child.

No serious, competent, rational, or even vaguely respectful adult would type what you just did.

I'll take an L,

I highly doubt that. Though by all means, prove me wrong on it and take the L. I'll be OH so put in my place.

if they're not too long

Like this post of yours I'm responding to?

like one of his many deranged

Belittling insult again.

healer rants,

"Riveting." -Semi-perfect Cell, DBZ Abridged

.

Yeah, I debunked your arguments, of course your petty and refusing to offer sources.

Again: The game isn't dying, and your ERP number is a small fraction of the playerbase. Even by the most positive numbers for your argument, it's 10%, and by the less positive for your position, far less.

If you can't argue in good faith - and you can't - don't bother. And no amount of getting a dozen likes from every one of Titenmen's alts makes you any less bad faith and wrong.

.

You provided no sources, you didn't engage in argument, you engaged in insults and goalpost moves, both proving your bad faith. I've addressed your arguments - all of them - and you couldn't offer defenses. So instead, you went low and petty, and I've no interest in debate against one with such a mentality.

[Renalt]

Unless you find this fun Renathras ( in which case keep it up! ) you should save your sanity.

You're playing chess against pigeons that will strut around the board, crap on it, knock over a pawn by accident, and declare themselves the winner.

[Koros]

Unless you find this fun Renathras ( in which case keep it up! ) you should save your sanity.

You're playing chess against pigeons that will strut around the board, crap on it, knock over a pawn by accident, and declare themselves the winner.

this guy's actually getting depressed because of the forums

i actually feel kinda bad now

[Iscah]

The thing is, housing is a core component of the game to my way of thinking. You can have the coolest game in the world, but if you neglect an essential core component so that maybe 20% of the population or less even get to participate [...] As nice as the whole thing looks, that is still going to leave 80+% of the guests with a pretty bad taste in their mouth.

The thing with your example, even if we assume the 20% is accurate, is that not everyone who comes to the game is concerned about housing.

There are enough people outside the 20% who want housing and can't get it, that they are frustrated by the current system. That is undeniably true. But it doesn't mean that every player feels the same way.

I had a house on my old server before I moved to Materia. It was fun to put together, but that was prettymuch it. Once it was done, it was nice to go into, like looking back at an artwork I'd done – but I also didn't feel like there was anything to actually do with it once it was done. I couldn't bring it cross-server with me and I'm not feeling like I want to do it over again.

Other people aren't going to want to do it at all, or they'll find that a private chamber in their FC house is enough.

In short, maybe only 20% can get a house, but that doesn't mean the whole remaining 80% are wanting one. It's certainly not what I expect out of a fantasy RPG, which is what the game is primarily marketed as.

[Deo14]

The thing with your example, even if we assume the 20% is accurate, is that not everyone who comes to the game is concerned about housing.

There are enough people outside the 20% who want housing and can't get it, that they are frustrated by the current system. That is undeniably true. But it doesn't mean that every player feels the same way.

I had a house on my old server before I moved to Materia. It was fun to put together, but that was prettymuch it. Once it was done, it was nice to go into, like looking back at an artwork I'd done – but I also didn't feel like there was anything to actually do with it once it was done. I couldn't bring it cross-server with me and I'm not feeling like I want to do it over again.

Other people aren't going to want to do it at all, or they'll find that a private chamber in their FC house is enough.

In short, maybe only 20% can get a house, but that doesn't mean the whole remaining 80% are wanting one. It's certainly not what I expect out of a fantasy RPG, which is what the game is primarily marketed as.

When it comes to housing, there is serious problem with scarcity-induced demand, and I'm personally guilty of that. I wasn't interested in housing back then, but since I've heard how hard it is to get one, I jumped to new EU server when I had the opportunity and bought nice M house in Mist. I wasn't really doing much with it, since I wasn't really interested in housing at that time. So there are people that are interested in housing, but they cannot get one, yet there are plenty of people with houses that do not use them, but don't want to lose them either, just in case they'll like in it future or because they don't want to lose something so valuable.

[Jojoya]

That's odd. Since when is it illegal to not allow modding? Are you telling me that WoW is also banned in Japan? Are you telling me that FFXIV's own TOS opens them up to lawsuits? Are you telling me there's no way they can find mod users?

There's a big difference between detecting use of mods and installing software to a player client that would block those mods from launching.

They can detect if they choose to. They've stated that they're not interested in doing so for now because of privacy issues.

Blocking the mod from launching could leave them tied up in the courts for years and it probably would not end in their favor. They have no legal right to interfere in user agreements between other parties even if one party is violating their agreement with SE by using of the mod. Not even Blizzard attempts to block unauthorized mods from launching and their legal team dwarfs anything SE could afford to field.

Detect then ban? Yes. Block? No.

[Theodric]

It's certainly not what I expect out of a fantasy RPG, which is what the game is primarily marketed as.

Quite a lot of fantasy RPG's do have some form of player housing, though, to be fair. It's pretty much become a staple for me. I like immersing myself in a game world and having a slice of that game world to call my own allows for me to do as much.

The Witcher 3 has a house for Geralt to acquire. Stardew Valley revolves heavily around a farmhouse - and farm - to be customised to one's liking. Monster Hunter World has partial player housing. Skyrim, even unmodded, has DLC that allows for player housing. The Elder Scrolls Online has player housing and very intricate furnishing/house designs at that. Even World of Warcraft has a variant of player housing, limited in design in the form of garrisons.

Certainly, it isn't a mandatory feature or something everybody is interested in but I'd wager the amount of people who do like player housing is pretty meaty. There's also individuals who do not like decorating a house themselves but appreciate the efforts of those who do.

That aside, as a shameless plug if anybody happens to be interested in visiting my house then it is Plot 3, 24 Ward, The Lavender Beds (Large) on Cerberus.

[Renathras]

The LB survey isn't even once daily - it's unique character logins at least once in the survey period (usually spanning 2-4 months) subject to its specified requirements. That's it. It's quite a generous way of gauging the number of players.

Also tends to include things (the Job counts) about players who logged out with a current tier Extreme's weapon. Which means they played more than just a quick log in and out again.

LOL this is the guy that said BLM can't slidecast, talking about misinformation

Gaius, I'm still not going to date you. No amount of you talking dirty to me - when you lie about people, it's dirty talk in your mind, I guess? - is going to make me love you. I don't love liars. If you want me to love you as much as you obsess over me, you're going to have to stop lying all the time.

...

TOO.
LATE.

I'm not reading any of that. I gave you a chance for a good faith discussion. Several, in fact. You didn't want one. Why should I give you one now? You can't even make that post without more insults.

The thing with your example, even if we assume the 20% is accurate, is that not everyone who comes to the game is concerned about housing.

This.

A lot of people have an unfortunate habit of assuming because they want something, so does everyone else.

Also, a lot of people could have gotten houses that didn't want THAT one. When the bidding started, there were many Smalls that had 0-3 bids since everyone was rushing the Mediums and Larges. Only when they didn't win those did they consider the Smalls, and most of those had been sold, so then people complained. When they could have bid on the smaller houses before.

Honestly, they just need to remove the need for having a House from things. I honestly have no idea why they won't let people without Houses grow crops or do submarine/airship missions. There's no reason for it other than they want things to be super scarce. But the Housing community is also...uh...it. People complaining from dozens of different angles, for dozens of different things, proposing things that alienate others in the community (many propose making all housing instanced in a "If I can't have one, no one can!" approach, which alienates the ones that DO like having a house in a public neighborhood with neighbors and such), meanwhile, tons of players genuinely couldn't care less.

Quite a lot of fantasy RPG's do have some form of player housing, though, to be fair.

That's true, but not all do, many don't in all ways, either. That is, what's "housing" is different in a lot of cases.

WoW had Garrisons. Are Garrisons REALLY "housing"? You don't get to pick the location, you can pick the buildings, but you couldn't pick the style or any details about them. Just the same generic building that had a few levels. Haven't played since Legion, but as far as I've heard, it still doesn't have Housing, and FFXIV's Apartment system (something pretty much everyone can get) is more customizable than that. Island Sanctuary alone is already about as customizable as Garrisons were. And WoW was/may still be the most played MMO of all time and with current player numbers.

Witcher 3 isn't an MMO. ESO's housing is (imo) limited since it's instanced only and I didn't feel like I could do as much with it, and honestly, couldn't bring myself to care because of how limiting it felt at the time. LotRO's, too. Skyrim's is also like that, where you have "slots" to put things, you can't just throw things wherever you want.

Agree that there are people wanting it, but it's probably not a majority of the playerbase, and there's a lot of caveats to that, like people who want a public space house (who dislike instanced housing like ESO's) and so on.

[Iscah]

Quite a lot of fantasy RPG's do have some form of player housing, though, to be fair. It's pretty much become a staple for me.

Depends which RPGs you've played, then. I'm trying to think of examples and coming up blank besides "secret bases in Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire".

Perhaps it's a matter of single player versus multiplayer – Pokémon being somewhere in the middle with the multiplayer connection aspect being conducted outside of the game itself, but you could import friends' secret bases.

[Deo14]

lots of words, not a lot of things

I ain't reading that, learn to write shorter stuff, it's getting tiring. Such essays are justified only if they actually have something in them. But your essays have too little meat, for how long they are. Everyone can write long stuff, the best of us can get the same idea across while using minimum amount of words.

But if I were to guess what are you ranting about now, it's because of your deranged napkin calculations that you're trying to defend. Reason why your 0.5% - 1% is absolutely inane is because there is always about 20K active Mare users at any given time. You were calculating some ffxivcensus/luckybanchoo data, which are users logging once daily or similar metrics, not active users at any given time..

So you mixed Mare's at any given time with your daily login and that's why you ended up with such a nonsense. There really isn't 2-4M players at any given time in this game. And as someone else already pointed out, Mare users make 14% of population, so you could, you know, just ask him for source, just like he offered? Preferably with simple message, nobody is reading your way too long rants.