[Theorycraft] Island Sanctuary – Sales optimization

[Erydia]

Hello.

Since the 6.2 update and the add of Island Sanctuary, i got interested sporadically in sales optimization of island products. This study is now over and i wish to share its results.

To whet your appetite, here are some examples of gains i’m able to reach :



Before anything, the reading of this topic requires a good knowledge of the Island Sanctuary and its mechanisms, i invit you to read again the in game help if necessary. No other knowledge is required to the understanding of what will follow. However, a certain ease in scientific fields can greatly facilitate the reading. I’m french, i did my best to make the translation as clear as possible but i’m not expecting it to be perfect, let me know if any part need some improvement.

Here is the document of 22 pages containing this study :

[Erydia]

If you’re interested, the algorithm is coded under Scilab, it’s a free software for scientific calculations, which you can download at this address :

https://www.scilab.org/

Once installed and executed, a window (which should be named in english) « Scilab console » opens. Click on « Launch SciNotes » (or something close), a new window opens, it’s in this one we can write programs, save them and execute them.

Here is the code of the modelization function to copy and paste in a SciNotes window and then to save in a file « Modelization function » :

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

Here is the code of the main algorithm to save in a file « Sales optimization » :

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

To launch the algorithm :

-Open Scilab, SciNotes and both files.

-Execute (it’s the play button) the program « Modelization function ».

-In the file « Sales optimization », in the matrix L, modify the last 3 columns to put respectively values of P (of the season concerned), of S (the eve of the next cycle) and d (the eve of the next cycle) for each product.

-Execute the program « Sales optimization ».

Then, the rest happens in the Scilab console. The explanation of the algorithm, and which serves as a tutorial, lies in the images above.

Thank you for your attention.

[Toutatis]

You know, I see you've put a lot of work into this but there’s a discord channel that has it all figured out and it’s not as complicated and doesn’t require downloading and installing any software. You can go to https://discord.gg/overseascasuals and check “Crunchy workshop info” under Island Information.

For those not interested in calculating it themselves (or understand it), the solutions are posted. At level 12 this week, we’re getting >28k Cowries though it’s most often between 25-27k.

[Erydia]

Hello.

Thank you for your feedback. After your comment and 2 days of sadness to not have find all pieces of the puzzle on my own, i made new observations for 9 days, i thought i found some kind of sequence for supply on few days, then the new season started and i was lost again haha.

So, i finally checked the link you gave. It was the first time ever i used Discord, i was a bit lost at the beginning, it took me few hours but i think i've read all available things.

I'm still happy with what i've done since there is actually a lot in common. Indeed :

-Except a small variation on groove's effect that leads sometime to a mistake of 1 unit on my side, formulas used to predict selling prices are the same.
-Basically ignoring groove and focusing on other parameters.
-Focusing on 4 items combinations.

In fact, the only big difference is supply evolution, of course. I did'nt understand the hidden parameter, especially with only my own datas, i did'nt see there is a hard reset for everyone on Tuesdays for example, so i supposed there was randomness. On the discord, they understood that part and it's obviously way better since it leads to better sales. But it's actually way more complicated compared to what i've done. Identify the path (among 12) of each item take a few days and requires sometime to know the last week peak or even a "sacrifice" like Mienna wrote (which made me laugh) in a sense that you need someone to craft this specific item to understand clearly the hidden parameter. So i disagree with you when you wrote "it's not as complicated".

A mistake i made is crafting everytime on days 1 to 5. I did see that sales on tuesdays were not as good than other days, i thought it was some bad luck but now i know the reason why, items never peak on Day 1. Starting from next week, i'll use my 10 minutes stuff on days 2 to 7 while making the second rest day vary if a prediction is low. I should get better sales and i’ll see how close i am from the solution posted on Discord. Actually, i’m not really interested in making cowries, i think i have enough until 7.0, i was only interested in this « maths » problem, it’s one of my kind of fun, thanks again