Island Sanctuary Cowries earned on Cycle 7 incorrect

[feyii]

Date & Time: 20. March 2023 21:25 (CET) (time I checked the taskmaster on Cycle 7) - 21. March 2023 16:48 (CET) (time I collected the remaining Cycle 7 earnings on Cycle 1 of the new season)
Frequency: irregularly, as far as I can tell it seems very random
World name: Phantom
Character name: Never Moore
Retainer name: -
NPC name: Tactful Taskmaster
Monster name: -
Class/Level: Max level for all jobs/classes, was on Armorer on Cycle 7 and Astrologian on Cycle 1; Island Sactuary Rank 12, all facilities built and upgraded to Rank III
Party or solo: solo
In-game time: not relevant, but it was 9:58 ET when I talked to the NPC
Area and coordinates: Island Sanctuary, X: 12.4, Y: 28.8, Z: 0.4
Housing: -
Steps:
1. have at least 2 characters with Island Sanctuary unlocked and at the same rank for everything (for comparison purposes)
2. set up the workshop schedules for the season with Cycle 1 (C1) as first rest day and any other cylce between C2 and C6 as second rest day - it is important to NOT rest C7
3. the schedules between all characters need to be identical for comparison purposes
4. visit the each character's Island Sanctuary every day and compare the earned cowries for the previous day
4.1. if all characters have the same workshop setup, the cowries earned each day match
5. visit each character's Island Sanctuary on C7 and take note of the cowries earned for C7 so far
5.1. up to this point the cowries earned for each character match
6. visit each character's Island Sanctuary on C1 of the following season to collect the remaining cowries from the previous cycle 7
6.1. sometimes, the sum of cowries collected after the season change, plus the cowries already collected on C7 (result is the total earnings for C7), do not match between characters, even though they should, like on all cycles before

Additional notes: From comparing to others with the issue, so far it seems to be related to the groove bonus for the remaining crafts. Up to the point you check the taskmaster on C7, the correct groove bonus is applied to all shipped items. For the remaining items, a lower groove bonus seems to be applied.

For the current case, here is what I did and got for C7 for all of my characters (can also be seen in the spreadsheet below):

Workshop schedule for all (repeated in all 3 workshops):
Isleworks Rope - Isleworks Tunic (Efficiency Bonus) - Isleworks Spruce Round Shield (Efficiency Bonus) - Isleworks Tunic (Efficiency Bonus)

I started C7 at 35/35 groove.

Earnings collected per character on C7 (first set of Ilseworks Rope and Isleworks Tunic was shipped, Shield was in progress):
J'zhed - 1665
Sindrj - 1665
Never - 1665

At that point all three were still displayed to have 35/35 groove.

Remaining earnings collected on C1 per character (for Isleworks Spruce Round Shield and second set of Isleworks Tunic):
J'zhed - 3732
Sindrj - 3732
Never - 3378

C7 Total for each character:
J'zhed - 5397
Sindrj - 5397
Never - 5043

As you can see, the difference comes only from the earnings collected after the start of the new season. This has been the case in all instances I've had this happen.

I have documented the issue for my characters in this google spreadsheet over a few weeks, with 2 occurences on different characters during that time: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
During the previous season the character Never (Moore)@Phantom was affected. Three seasons earlier it was J'zhed (Phoenixsong)@Marilith

If needed and requested, I can provide full screenshots. Please let me know, if and what additional information is needed, so I can try to provide it.

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[feyii]

I have two new occurrences of this bug in the new season. I'll just add the times and what I did for Cycle 7 on all my characters, for reference. Everything else remains as before.

1st occurence:
Date & Time: 27. March 2023 21:28 (CEST) (time I checked the taskmaster on Cycle 7) - 28. March 2023 16:01 (CEST) (time I collected the remaining Cycle 7 earnings on Cycle 1 of the new season)
World name: Phantom
Character name: Never Moore

2nd occurrence:
Date & Time: 27. March 2023 21:07 (CEST) (time I checked the taskmaster on Cycle 7) - 28. March 2023 16:13 (CEST) (time I collected the remaining Cycle 7 earnings on Cycle 1 of the new season)
World name: Marilith
Character name: J'zhed Phoenixsong

Additional information:
Cycle 7 started at 35 Groove for all characters.

Cycle 7 workshop schedule for all characters (repeated in all 3 workshops):

Isleworks Tomato Relish - Ilseworks Honey (Efficiency Bonus) - Isleworks Caramels (Efficiency Bonus) - Isleworks Honey (Efficiency Bonus) - Ilseworks Caramels (Efficiency Bonus)

C7 earnings collected on C7 per character (Tomato Relish and first Honey was shipped, first Caramels in production):
J'zhed - 957
Never - 957
Sindrj - 957

Remaining earnings for C7 per character, collected on C1 of the new season (Caramels, Honey and Caramels again):
J'zhed - 2037
Never - 4116
Sindrj - 4146

C7 Total for all characters:
J'zhed - 2994
Never - 5073
Sindrj - 5103 (this was the expected value)

[StouterTaru]

Sounds like you ran out of ingredients on one of your characters. Check the "material allocation" menu for "current and next season" after scheduling your stuff and look for any red numbers

[feyii]

Sounds like you ran out of ingredients on one of your characters. Check the "material allocation" menu for "current and next season" after scheduling your stuff and look for any red numbers

I certainly did not run out of mats. I have screenshots of both my schedule and material allocation window for all characters (which are visible in the spreadsheet linked in the original post). Also, the amount of missing cowries does not fit to a complete craft being skipped. 30 cowries, for example, which is the amount the character Never was missing last season, is less than even a single item is worth (lowest value item for the schedule was honey, with 43 cowries base value), without accounting for bonuses from supply and demand or efficiency and groove bonus.

[rinha]

The mathematics behind the expected value have been derived by the "Overseas Casuals" discord community as follows:
craftValue = floor(baseValue * WorkshopBonus * (100 + Groove) / 10000)
finalValue = floor(craftValue * PopularityMultiplier * SupplyMultiplier / 10000)

If the craft is efficient, the final value is doubled.

Workshop bonuses are:
Rank I - 100
Rank II - 110
Rank III - 120

Popularity multipliers are:
Very High - 140
High - 120
Average - 100
Low - 80

Supply modifiers are:
Nonexistent - 160
Insufficient - 130
Sufficient - 100
Surplus - 80
Overflowing - 60

On the cycle 7 which started on 27th March, the items crafted had the following popularity/supply:
Tomato Relish - Average/Insufficient
Honey - Very High/Insufficient
Caramels - Very High/Nonexistent

This gives us the following values for Feyii's schedule's (starting with 35 groove, due to crafting on 4 prior days):
Tomato Relish: floor(floor(52 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 100 * 130 / 10000) = 109 per workshop -> 327 total
Honey: floor(floor(36 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 130 / 10000) * 2 = 210 per workshop -> 630 total
Caramels: floor(floor(81 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 160 / 10000) * 2 = 586 per workshop -> 1758 total
Honey: floor(floor(36 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 130 / 10000) * 2 = 210 per workshop -> 630 total
Caramels: floor(floor(81 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 160 / 10000) * 2 = 586 per workshop -> 1758 total

Grand total = 327 + 630 + 1758 + 630 + 1758 = 5103

As we can see, this amount was collected by character Sindrj.

All of Feyii's characters collected the same amount of cowries on C7 during production of the first caramels, and had the same weekly total up to that point. This means that something went wrong during the calculations of the caramels-honey-caramels.

I have managed to derive the value collected by character Never (5073, a loss of 30 cowries) only by calculating one of the sets of caramels beginning with 33 groove instead of 35:
Tomato Relish: floor(floor(52 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 100 * 130 / 10000) = 109 per workshop -> 327 total
Honey: floor(floor(36 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 130 / 10000) * 2 = 210 per workshop -> 630 total
Caramels: floor(floor(81 * 120 * (100 + 33) / 10000) * 140 * 160 / 10000) * 2 = 576 per workshop -> 1728 total *** 33 groove line ***
Honey: floor(floor(36 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 130 / 10000) * 2 = 210 per workshop -> 630 total
Caramels: floor(floor(81 * 120 * (100 + 35) / 10000) * 140 * 160 / 10000) * 2 = 586 per workshop -> 1758 total

Grand total = 327 + 630 + 1728 + 630 + 1758 = 5073

I'm assuming that, for some reason, the accumulated groove is not always updated during collection on cycle 7, so when the player collects their cowries in the next season, a groove value from an earlier visit is used instead.