Housing Lottery Needs some adjustments

[TAS]

It's the second lottery after the addition of new wards, and the second time my FC lost out to a person who placed a bid within the last 30mins of the deadline.

So how does this RNG actually work? I wouldn't feel so salty about losing to the final bidder if there was a bigger gap between the bidding deadline and the winner announcement.

In my honest opinion, if a player throws in a bid within the last 12 to 24 hours of calling the winners, then the probability that their number gets called should be drastically diminished.

[AshDidit]

Why? It's a lottery system. Doesn't matter if you buy your cactpot ticket seconds after it opens or seconds before it closes. It's R N G. RANDOM number generator. period. Computer controlled random chance. Be as salty as you like, at least you don't get carpal tunnel from clicking placards for 8 hours, and still lose anyway. I try to be the first to bid regardless of how many others bid. I've been lucky, you haven't YET. Maybe bid on one last minute next time that doesn't have any/many bids already on it. It's not up to SE to fix your salt.

[TAS]

Why? It's a lottery system. Doesn't matter if you buy your cactpot ticket seconds after it opens or seconds before it closes. It's R N G. RANDOM number generator. period. Computer controlled random chance. Be as salty as you like, at least you don't get carpal tunnel from clicking placards for 8 hours, and still lose anyway. I try to be the first to bid regardless of how many others bid. I've been lucky, you haven't YET. Maybe bid on one last minute next time that doesn't have any/many bids already on it. It's not up to SE to fix your salt.

No, but it is their job to observe and receive feedback on their systems, which is what I'm giving on the lottery system. If the housing lottery gave you a randomized number on your ticket, versus a number based on the order you placed your bid then I could agree with your cactpot comparison. I'd hate winning ticket 4362 less than jerk face bidder number 23

[dspguy]

No, but it is their job to observe and receive feedback on their systems, which is what I'm giving on the lottery system. If the housing lottery gave you a randomized number on your ticket, versus a number based on the order you placed your bid then I could agree with your cactpot comparison. I'd hate winning ticket 4362 less than jerk face bidder number 23

I understand your frustration, but your experience is anecdotal at best. They'd need to survey thousands of players to see if your particular claim is valid. To be honest, they don't need to survey players at all. I'm sure they can see what RNG is putting out and see if the results fall within a standard deviation.

In my experience (anecdotal!), the RNG is just fine. Sometimes it works in your favor, sometimes it doesn't.

Years ago, I tracked every meld I did for two expansions - and I used to pentameld both DoW/M gear and DoH/L gear. I tracked the odds (17%, 12% 10% 5%, etc). There were times when a 17% meld failed 20 times. And of course there were times the 5% meld failed 100 times. However, there were also plenty of times the 5% succeeded on the first try. Over thousand of meld chances, the RNG seemed pretty spot on.

In a lottery, there will commonly be N-1 losers. More often than not, any given player will be a loser.

[Burmecia]

But this won't fix anything? People just begin to buy their tickets at another time, which is the lastest + best chance. Or just ignore the chance boost. And might win nevertheless.

[Jojoya]

How does RNG work? The system picks a number at random from range of entries. There is no preference just because you lost your last relocation bid as well.

For my alt's FC, they had entries 1 and 2 on the plot they wanted to relocate to on the first day of the lottery period. Entry 3 showed up the next day and entry 4 sometime before the entry period expired. Their entry #2 won (somewhat funny in light of the other thread complaining about unfair lottery result). Whoever had placed that entry 4 toward the end of the entry period clearly gained no advantage from it.

Do you really want to go back to the days of FCFS where you had to be sitting at your computer waiting to press the Play button as soon as the servers came online hoping that you were fast enough to avoid the log in queue and not get disconnected from the servers at the last second so you could rush in to be the first to the placard?

Honestly sounds like you're still going to end up bitter regardless and I can sympathize to a small degree but it's not the lottery itself causing your problem. It's the supply system, where there aren't enough of the more desired plots for everyone who wants them. Only one can win each plot, and that means there will be losers. People need to stop focusing on the weak bandaids implemented to create small improvements in the system and focus on the core problem.

[Elevin]

How does RNG work? The system picks a number at random from range of entries. There is no preference just because you lost your last relocation bid as well.

For my alt's FC, they had entries 1 and 2 on the plot they wanted to relocate to on the first day of the lottery period. Entry 3 showed up the next day and entry 4 sometime before the entry period expired. Their entry #2 won (somewhat funny in light of the other thread complaining about unfair lottery result). Whoever had placed that entry 4 toward the end of the entry period clearly gained no advantage from it.

Do you really want to go back to the days of FCFS where you had to be sitting at your computer waiting to press the Play button as soon as the servers came online hoping that you were fast enough to avoid the log in queue and not get disconnected from the servers at the last second so you could rush in to be the first to the placard?

Honestly sounds like you're still going to end up bitter regardless and I can sympathize to a small degree but it's not the lottery itself causing your problem. It's the supply system, where there aren't enough of the more desired plots for everyone who wants them. Only one can win each plot, and that means there will be losers. People need to stop focusing on the weak bandaids implemented to create small improvements in the system and focus on the core problem.

I'd like to see how it works because there's only a second between entering and the results period. Is the winning no. decided as tickets are placed, so each entry sees the winning number rerolled in which case you could have won 10 times in a row, but the last bidder won the 11th time even though you were the first ticket placed?

[Sindele]

I'd like to see how it works because there's only a second between entering and the results period. Is the winning no. decided as tickets are placed, so each entry sees the winning number rerolled in which case you could have won 10 times in a row, but the last bidder won the 11th time even though you were the first ticket placed?

Modern PRNGs are extremely, extremely fast - the execution time for each roll would be measured in nanoseconds. There would be no reason to roll ahead of time.

The Current rng of the lottery system more often than not has insinuated preferential variables to first bids and last bids. My request is to address that or create a new ticket system that doesn't emphasize the order in which players bid.

What's your sample size? "More often than not" is a statement that needs some serious qualification given the accusation.

[TAS]

What's your sample size? "More often than not" is a statement that needs some serious qualification given the accusation.

As I've specified... It's what "I've noticed" on my own server running around and checking placards since the Lottery's implementation last year. I've checked Ishgard Large housing when implemented, the L houses that opened as a result of movers, the occasional L plot that would open prior to the new wards added in 6.3, Wards 25 through 30 L plots in all zones, and the L's that became available as a result of those who were able to relocate thereafter.

Not trying to phrase it as an accusation, just one player's observation of his home world lottery system. If players invested in the housing lottery have notice a similar pattern on their servers and DC's, hopefully they share, and that this can turn into something worth reviewing by SE.

[mauiestlauiest]

As I've specified... It's what "I've noticed" on my own server running around and checking placards since the Lottery's implementation last year. I've checked Ishgard Large housing when implemented, the L houses that opened as a result of movers, the occasional L plot that would open prior to the new wards added in 6.3, Wards 25 through 30 L plots in all zones, and the L's that became available as a result of those who were able to relocate thereafter.

Not trying to phrase it as an accusation, just one player's observation of his home world lottery system. If players invested in the housing lottery have notice a similar pattern on their servers and DC's, hopefully they share, and that this can turn into something worth reviewing by SE.

Just something I've noticed. Players are, for whatever reason, super touchy when you criticize or bring up any sort of opinion regarding housing, lottery, or anything close. For the most part, they have gotten their mansions and 8 alt houses or whatever so criticizing the system in which they've "won" means you're "criticizing them". Just ignore when people do this crap. It's almost like if you aren't presenting any hard facts, you can't present opinions, anecdotes or personal findings either? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯