Fix Rapid Synthesis so it actually hits at 50%

[JT35]

I used to play this game a lot. And I remember how Rapid Synthesis was labeled to hit 50% of the time, but that it always hit no more than 20-25% Tops.

So I come back to the game a few days ago thinking that surely by now they either fixed the bugged or relabeled it to the ACTUAL success rate...


NOPE.
Still hits like 1 out of 5 on average.

If you only want it to hit 20%, then fine. It's your game.
But LABEL IT AS SUCH.
OR FIX IT.

[Valkyrie_Lenneth]

Welcome to RNG, over thousands of people.

It averages to 50/50.

Same as how a 7% meld can go on the first try, or 300 materia later.

[Deceptus]

Welcome to RNG, over thousands of people.

It averages to 50/50.

Same as how a 7% meld can go on the first try, or 300 materia later.

At a 7% success rate, you'd have a 97.34% probability of getting a meld at 50 attempts, and a 99.38% probability at 70 attempts.

If the OP ran Trial Synthesis (to save gil) and just spammed Rapid Synthesis and tracked success and failures - and did this 200+ times, they'd see it is closer to 50% than 25%. And the variance from 50% would work itself out if they kept going.

What the OP is seeing is what we all see. Confirmation bias. I'll never forget the 175 melds it took to put a 5% materia on an accessory years ago. However, after that, I took to tracking all my melds when I was pentamelding and compared them with that the game tells me the odds should be. The result over a long period of time? Their RNG is pretty spot on. Over a short period of time, it is hard to see it and we only see what we allow ourselves to see.

Maybe, maybe not. If they did run that trial for 200 attempts and it came out to 30% success rate would you still discount it as not enough attempts? 500? 1000?

At what point does data become valid if it doesn't agree with what you think it should be? 100 attempts is a decent sample size and shouldn't be scoffed at, it should be considered.

[dspguy]

At a 7% success rate, you'd have a 97.34% probability of getting a meld at 50 attempts, and a 99.38% probability at 70 attempts.



Maybe, maybe not. If they did run that trial for 200 attempts and it came out to 30% success rate would you still discount it as not enough attempts? 500? 1000?

At what point does data become valid if it doesn't agree with what you think it should be? 100 attempts is a decent sample size and shouldn't be scoffed at, it should be considered.

Do it yourself and find out. Not necessarily with Rapid Synthesis, it could be any RNG aspect of the game. I've done it.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WyS...usp=share_link

I ran /random 2 (which rolls a 1 or 2) and recorded the output. Figures are in the link, but for those not wanting to click the link, the gist is:

This simulates the 50% success/fail of Rapid Synthesis (RS).

First 189 rolls had the following results: 100 1s (53%) to 89 2s (47%)
Next 43 rolls had the following result: 15 1s (35%) 28s (65%).

Collectively, across all 232 rolls, it was:
49.5% 1s
50.5% 2s

There were also multiple instances of consecutive 1s or consecutive 2s which would have looked like lots of RS successes or failures.

It didn't take that many rolls to see the results begin to converge towards what we'd expect.

[GTK0HLK]

<don't fully understand the situation since I only rapid synth stuff I out level or fan easily create with no issue..,>
But I'd like to add if we are rapid synthing any item at max level.
It should automatically be all HQ, since we have that skill that auto fills the Quality to max.

Edit: Clarification, I mean Trained Eye if all the crafts are 10 levels or lower. This should count for all items crafted.

I assume op means when Rapid Synth at, or near same craft level

[Rongway]

If the probability of an event is not 0 or 1, there are no guarantees. The pRNG isn't broken because you personally have not observed an event to occur as often as its probability says it should. For every thousand times you use the action, there are thousands of other players using the action millions of times more that you cannot observe. If you could, you would see that it works about as often as it's supposed to. This is still true even if you personally go ten or even a hundred failures in a row. While an improbable occurrence, it's not guaranteed not to happen, and it doesn't mean the game is broken when it does.

[Jalei]

Literally just don't use rapid synth lmao. Much better options out there that don't have you crying on the forums my dude.

[Knot_D]

Literally just don't use rapid synth lmao. Much better options out there that don't have you crying on the forums my dude.

I mean it's needed for expert craft like Water Otter fountain... What you gonna use if Rapid Synth is useless for you?

[Jalei]

I mean it's needed for expert craft like Water Otter fountain... What you gonna use if Rapid Synth is useless for you?

I never said its useless but if you're going to QQ and complain about it, find something else. That's the point I'm making.

[GTK0HLK]

We really don't need back in forths here, and in other topics.

It has its uses.., does it need to be as the OP wants not exactly.., will it drain resources from other things.., not as much as many would exaggerate..,,
Does it need some changes to take into account..,
Yes..,
Like taking into account "Trained Eye" if the level difference is there.

It has uses, so it exists. Personal amount of uses aside. Does it merit OPs desired changes..,

Simple Yes or no, with minor detail.<no back and forth about it>