The 8th umbral calamity

[Lyth]

That's only true for an iterative loop, not a stable time loop.

In her past, Venat met us. So she ordinarily would know for certain that we travelled to Elpis and that the loop exists. The only way in which she wouldn't be certain is if there was another timeline in which the loop didn't originally exist, and the two formed a conjunction with each other after the appropriate criteria were met, merging into a single timeline.

[Absimiliard]

That's only true for an iterative loop, not a stable time loop.

In her past, Venat met us. So she ordinarily would know for certain that we travelled to Elpis and that the loop exists. The only way in which she wouldn't be certain is if there was another timeline in which the loop didn't originally exist, and the two formed a conjunction with each other after the appropriate criteria were met, merging into a single timeline.

Meeting the WoL in the past doesn't mean she would know whether or not the one she would later meet in the lifestream would be the same one. For all she knew her plan could've gone awry somewhere along the way, resulting in the WoL she would meet down there being one that never traveled to Elpis in the first place. Alternatively, she may think it could be they would meet before the trip to Elpis. There are any number of variables that would leave Venat unable to tell whether or not she was meeting the "you" from Elpis or from different point along the journey.

[Travel]

No offense to anyone, but; this is why I dislike most time travel plotlines. Yes, there can be some cool stuff happening - look at Chrono Trigger - but it usually just ends up being extremely complicated by the end.

[Iscah]

Likewise, when you call out Venat's name in front of the Mothercrystal, only at that point does she realize that the loop has been successfully completed:

'I see... thou didst travel into Elpis.'

If the loop was always predestined to occur, then she would have just taken this as a given. So it was also possible that you might not have met the requirements for the conjunction to happen and you might have travelled to the Mothercrystal without travelling to Elpis.

I don't see how that demonstrates that the loop didn't exist before. All it does is confirm to her that you have the full story now and she can talk freely about what happened there, instead of having to keep silent so you don't learn anything you didn't know when (by her perspective) you previously came to Elpis.

When she meets us on the ship, she knows we must be getting close to the point where the loop is complete, because we probably told Venat about that encounter as one of the most recent events that we need to make sense of. The beginning of the Final Days would confirm it is even closer, but she probably still can't be exactly sure how things fit together, and there could be some chance we could have the idea of paying Hydaelyn a visit without having gone to Elpis yet, even if it is definitely going to happen soon.

[Lyth]

...

You could come up with any number of alternative explanations as to why she would be unsure, but it doesn't explain the earlier lines about a conjunction forming. There's a reason that I provided the direct quotes.

Again:

'Even bereft of guidance, you and your companions have accepted the burden of this star's troubled past. A conjunction has begun to form; an intertwining of your time and mine.'

'You may find your world to be very different. Or perhaps the erasure of our friends' memories has sown the seeds of a conjunction between us.'

[Iscah]

You could come up with any number of alternative explanations as to why she would be unsure, but it doesn't explain the earlier lines about a conjunction forming. There's a reason that I provided the direct quotes.

Again:

'Even bereft of guidance, you and your companions have accepted the burden of this star's troubled past. A conjunction has begun to form; an intertwining of your time and mine.'

'You may find your world to be very different. Or perhaps the erasure of our friends' memories has sown the seeds of a conjunction between us.'

"Sowing the seeds of a conjunction" can definitely be read to mean "erasing their memories means that the present situation is consistent with the future you told us about, so this might be the beginning of a time loop that connects up to your pre-existing future".

Then she appears to us on the ship. From her perspective the time loop has been slowly progressing all this time, and now at last it looks like she's reaching the conclusion of it, recognising the more recent waymarks of events that you must have described to her all those years ago. She's approaching the conjunction point where you depart this location on the timeline to visit Elpis and come back, completing the loop and ending that uncertain state where the loop could potentially fail somewhere along the way.

[Ralphe2449]

It was a bit silly in endwalker when Elidibus says ‘you cannot change the events of the past to save the future’ while this is literally what Graha did with the crystal tower, having both timelines and loop at the same time is a bit problematic

[Layte_Aeon]

It was a bit silly in endwalker when Elidibus says ‘you cannot change the events of the past to save the future’ while this is literally what Graha did with the crystal tower, having both timelines and loop at the same time is a bit problematic

It literally isn't. What G'raha did with the tower changed nothing about the future he came from, he can't go back to it and he's no longer sure it even exists. We the players know it exists and we know that sending the crystal tower back changed nothing.

[Iscah]

It was a bit silly in endwalker when Elidibus says ‘you cannot change the events of the past to save the future’ while this is literally what Graha did with the crystal tower, having both timelines and loop at the same time is a bit problematic

There's more nuance to it than that, especially if you look at the full conversation and not just a single quote that can be taken two ways.

There are two parts to his instructions. One is that we probably are going to be an intangible little wisp that can't interact with anything, only observe.

The second part is a warning: that even if we do find ourself able to interact with people in the past, our ultimate goal in visiting Elpis is to learn what happened in the past of this timeline, and to return to the present to apply that knowledge and halt the second coming of the Final Days. To achieve this, the events we observe in Elpis must be this timeline's events so it is actually really important that we don't cause things to play out differently, but must observe this past tragedy exactly as it happened or we won't be able to save our own present world from destruction.

So that's what he means when he says you cannot change the past (if indeed those were the words he used, and not something less ambiguous). It's not simply that you could not if you tried, but that you must not or your mission fails. It's an order, not a statement of possibility.


That said, G'raha knew exactly what he was doing when he changed his timeline, at a practical level, and came to the past already armed with the information he needed to be able to change it. He knew the Calamity was caused by Black Rose triggering the First's unstable light aether, perhaps in as much detail as knowing the particular date, and set about preventing it by eliminating one of those factors.

We can't do the same in Elpis, because we have absolutely no idea what happens until we see it play out. We know the end result on a large scale but none of the details or the steps it took to arrive there.

[Lyth]

...

I don't think that your explanation shows the reasoning behind those statements. A conjunction has begun to form. The erasure has sown the seeds of a conjunction. Look at the tense. These were not pre-existing; they were not predestined. That's why it's a bit more nuanced than a stable time loop, in which everything in-between the loop is predestined to occur.