Island Sanctuary Workshop

[StouterTaru]

So I'm just getting into the workshop, and couldn't find the equation for item earnings anywhere, so I decided to make a little excel sheet and figure it out myself. Here's what it's looking like after a few days

Expected:
Earnings = Value * Popularity modifier * Supply modifier

Reality:
With the same Popularity and Supply, the % boost to earnings can vary

Some of my sample size involves a reading after multiple of the same item were made, so I divided the total by that number. After making even more of that item in the same day, the average earnings dropped even more. I looked at the chart, and it had decreasing Demand Shift

Theory:
Demand Shift isn't a predictor of future demand; it's how the earnings will change with each production

• Increasing/Skyrocketing - each production pays more than the last
• None - earnings stays the same no matter how many you make
• Decreasing/Plummeting - each production pays less than the last

So my current working theory is:
Earnings = Value * (Popularity/Supply modifier) + (Demand Shift modifier * amount of item already produced)

I'm going for the 17,000 cowries achievement this week, so it'll be next week before I can really get into the weeds experimenting, and it'll be the weekend before I can be home to check every few hours to properly measure the experiment

[Azuri]

What you are observing isn't caused but what you are assuming. Here. The whole thing has been solved ages ago.

[StouterTaru]

I'll dig into it further tomorrow, but it doesn't seem to have everything solved

It appears to be using 1.4 for Very High, and 1.0 for Sufficient, I've had multipliers for those two combined between 1.4 and 1.7

It might be in the formulas, but that'll take more digging into than I have time for now

[Azuri]

You are ignoring supply, which also adds a modifier. After selling 8 items, you shift supply up, which lowers per unit price.

Also, you have to perform all experimentation at maximum groove, since it's also an additional bonus modifier.

[StouterTaru]

You are ignoring supply, which also adds a modifier. After selling 8 items, you shift supply up, which lowers per unit price.

Also, you have to perform all experimentation at maximum groove, since it's also an additional bonus modifier.

I wasn't ignoring supply, that and popularity were the only two factors I was looking at. I was ignoring groove, but it would have only increased inside the same day.

Same item
Same day
Same Popularity
Same Supply
Same or Higher Groove
Lower Payout

So there's either an extra factor in there, or there are more discrete values than the system displays (which might be the case with supply)

[dspguy]

The spreadsheet is really accurate. Punch in the information it asks for and it tells you what will earn you the most. Are there possible bugs or other issues? I wouldn't be surprised. But, I've followed it and earned over 20k each week.

[dspguy]

That spreadsheet workshop solver has nailed my earnings down to the cowrie. Just checked it again this morning. It says I should be at 11370 so far and that's exactly what I have. Just like last week. The calculator nailed the exact figure for the entire week. I don't know what the OP is seeing that makes it different. Maybe there's something to it?

[StouterTaru]

According to the spreadsheet, the formula is

[ 1.2 * Base value * (1 + Groove/100) ] * Popularity modifier * Supply modifier

with a couple truncations

If you're following the spreadsheet, you would have hit items with maximum supply modifier. I think I hit a penalty that isn't measured (because if you're only looking for best case, there's no reason to measure it)