Island Sanctuary supply dramatically shifting in the background

[Azuri]

That would really suck if this is the case because we can't do any sort of planning ahead and have to jump on the low supply items on their low supply days, instead of saving them for later days when we have higher Groove.

You're probably right, though. Yesterday was a rest day for me so today I was focusing on what were Nonexistent yesterday and they're all the way up to Sufficient today without my crafting anything. So I've seen the same sort of shift the others are seeing and it's been frustrating.

Oh, you can plan ahead just fine. By the 4th cycle the pattern for every single item is known. It's just not something that's easy to do intuitively unless you have very good pattern recognition skills. A spreadsheet helps. Casual content, you know.

[DarkCobalt]

Oh, you can plan ahead just fine. By the 4th cycle the pattern for every single item is known. It's just not something that's easy to do intuitively unless you have very good pattern recognition skills. A spreadsheet helps. Casual content, you know.

Yeah I found a spreadsheet late last night with prediction calculations and they say by cycle 4 it's pretty much guaranteed. I'm going to follow it from now on I guess. It's not my preferred way to do this type of stuff but since the system appears to be entirely random (as suggested in previous posts here), I can't be bothered to tear my hair out trying to figure out which day the item is going to do a coin flip and yeet into the stratosphere.

As a side note, since Cycle 4 is when the "algorithm" gets revealed, should we be putting rest days on Cycle 1 and 2 instead? Or is it better to gamble Cycle 1 and 2 to push some groove even with inefficient items?

[Azuri]

Yeah I found a spreadsheet late last night with prediction calculations and they say by cycle 4 it's pretty much guaranteed. I'm going to follow it from now on I guess. It's not my preferred way to do this type of stuff but since the system appears to be entirely random (as suggested in previous posts here), I can't be bothered to tear my hair out trying to figure out which day the item is going to do a coin flip and yeet into the stratosphere.

As a side note, since Cycle 4 is when the "algorithm" gets revealed, should we be putting rest days on Cycle 1 and 2 instead? Or is it better to gamble Cycle 1 and 2 to push some groove even with inefficient items?

It really is a shame. If the system was a bit more intuitive and followed more "logical" supply and demand trends it would have been fun to engage with on it's own. Sadly trying to avoid spreadsheeting only leads to frustration and the feeling like you have no agency over the system.

Cycle 1 is a definite rest day by default simply because it's the reset day and is completely random. On top of that, no item ever goes "nonexistent" on cycle 1. But just because complete prediction is possible by 4th cycle doesn't mean that you have no information prior to that. In simplified terms, you can always predict one cycle in advance with a caveat that prediction for cycle 2 is not guaranteed to be correct. So the other rest day can go on a cycle where the potential profits seem low (like cycle 5 this week, for example).

[TaleraRistain]

Oh, you can plan ahead just fine. By the 4th cycle the pattern for every single item is known. It's just not something that's easy to do intuitively unless you have very good pattern recognition skills. A spreadsheet helps. Casual content, you know.

Ugh. Forcing everyone to optimize all the fun out of something yet again just so we don't scream in frustration at the arbitrary changes we can't do anything to prevent or guide.

[Jojoya]

Ugh. Forcing everyone to optimize all the fun out of something yet again just so we don't scream in frustration at the arbitrary changes we can't do anything to prevent or guide.

You're not being forced to do it. It's your choice to use tools others have created for optimization efficiency, or just engage with the content on your own.

I'm not really interested in relying on worksheets to figure out what I should be making so I won't. It's good to know that there are pre-determined supply patterns running in the background so I don't feel frustrated if I end up guessing wrong for a day. It's outside of my control, it's optional content that I can do or not do as I want, I'm in no rush to get all the rewards. I'll just relax, enjoy and see what happens.

Josh Strife Hayes - Want to kill your love for game? Be efficient.

You may or may not agree but his reasoning is pretty sound.

[Knot_D]

I had that problem again with today's rope, but fixed after 1 hour and it's back to Sufficient.

Definitely a visual bug.

[Jojoya]

I had that problem again with today's rope, but fixed after 1 hour and it's back to Sufficient.

Definitely a visual bug.

If you had to wait an hour for it to change, it may not be a visual bug at all.

Out of curiosity, can you remember the last time you had made the rope? I'm wondering if there's some sort of real time updating on supply based on player activity in addition to whatever background RNG there is. The one thing I've not been doing is tracking supply/demand changes after completion of crafts. I've been assuming they only update at the daily reset time for the workshop.

[Knot_D]

If you had to wait an hour for it to change, it may not be a visual bug at all.

Out of curiosity, can you remember the last time you had made the rope? I'm wondering if there's some sort of real time updating on supply based on player activity in addition to whatever background RNG there is. The one thing I've not been doing is tracking supply/demand changes after completion of crafts. I've been assuming they only update at the daily reset time for the workshop.

Nope, I didn't make any rope before because I only do Brush - Crook and Butter - Sheep Rug - Scale Fingers - Sheep Rug. Definitely the supply become wonky lately...

[Xavier_Firbold]

Nope, I didn't make any rope before because I only do Brush - Crook and Butter - Sheep Rug - Scale Fingers - Sheep Rug. Definitely the supply become wonky lately...

Then it's not a visual bug lol - it's an issue with the way the system has been built.

[Wolwosh]

Island Sanctuary reminds me of Blue Mage.
They say its a solo job, and then all of a sudden they want you to do Savage and req a static.
Island Sanctuary is casual content, but at the end you need to do the hardest craft currently in the game + needing spreadsheets to use the workshop effectively.
Also why is it always dark on my island?...