Economist needed for Island Sanctuary's trading!

[Knot_D]

Any economist in chat? Currently the trading chart is pretty confusing to figure out lol...

Day 1


Day 2


Day 3

[hagare]

make knive, sell necklace?

[Bukachu]

Spam Isleworks Barbut and Isleworks Macuahuitl

[LittleArrow]

I'm not an economist, but I didn't find the chart particularly difficult to read. Unless it's so difficult I don't know it is LOL.

This is how I read it, starting from left to right:

1. Product: Gives you the list of products to check demand on.
2. Popularity: Show's you the item's popularity - how much the BUYER wants the product.
3. Supply: Show's you the item's supply - how much the SELLER is making the product
4. Demand shift - shows how much the BUYER is probably going to want the product in the future (not for sure on the time, but I just guessed 24hrs)
5. Predicted demand - shows you how much the SELLER is probably going to make

So, if 2 is high and 3 is low - you're going to make more profit, because people want it but there's not enough to buy, thus the price will be raised. If 2 is low and 3 is high, then the price is going to be lower, because people really don't want it but there's a lot of the item out there, so to sell it the price needs to be lower. If 2 is low and 3 is low, price will probably be low b/c again people still don't want the item. If 2 is high and 3 is high, then it'll probably sell at value since popularity is high but there's still a lot of the item.

You can apply the same logic to 4 and 5 for the next day.

Hopefully this helps <3

Just in addition to the chart: You also want to chain TYPES of item for efficiency bonuses. Efficiency bonuses double your profit no matter if popularity is high or low: example - island necklace sells for 20 low - you get 40; island necklace sells for 30 high - you get 60. Each item has a type; necklace = accessory, so you'll want to choose another accessory, not the same one - coral ring. After coral ring you'll choose necklace again, then coral ring, etc until you fill up your slots. You'll get full efficiency bonus, doubling your profits! The issue with this, is you may have an item that's high popularity (necklace) but the chaining item (ring) is low popularity; then it might be a good idea to ignore efficiency bonuses and just go with two high popularity items (as mentioned above, barbut / Macuahuitl). I don't know the exact values of all the items, so I couldn't tell you which is better or worse - people are collecting data now, and I'm positive there'll be a comprehensive guide soon! <3

[Seraphor]

Step 1: spend the first 2 days of a season (week) spaming potions and firesand to rack up groove via efficiency bonuses

Step 2: spend the rest of the season 1 day at a time, making the items that have a low supply with a high predicted demand.

[Ryvick]

My Advice?

1. Set rest days to 1 and 7 for all seasons. (Due to Patch/maintenance down times and such)

2. Ignore Prediction section (This will fluctuate radically from what is shown when the next week becomes the current week)

3. Produce large chains (If you can) of Very High/High popularity items for that week.

4. Earn tons of Blue tokens

[PizzaPineapple]

So my friend and I were comparing our supply and demand tables:



Seems like the supply is different per player and is based on what you were selling the previous cycles. I was selling potions, necklaces, and macuahuitls, but my friend sold potions, firesand, and macuahuitls. My table shows firesand at 2 but my friend's firesand at 3. Also, my table shows necklace at 2 and my friend's at 1.

This lines up with the guide's advice in "Tricks of the Trade" where you should build up groove first THEN sell the high popularity items when the supply is Nonexistent to maximize the amount of blue cowries you get.

My understanding of these columns:
1. Popularity: Higher -> more blue cowries. Changes per week.
2. Supply: Higher -> less blue cowries. Changes per day AND is dependent on what you sell in previous days.
3. Demand Shift: (theory) Determines how much the supply is going to change the next day. Skyrocketing -> supply will drop a lot, Plummeting -> supply will not change or possibly go up. Changes per day.
4. Predicted Demand: (theory) I think this should be translated as "Predicted Popularity" since it doesn't look like it changes at all throughout the week. I guess they made this to help you plan out what to sell in the next season because the supply carries over.

So, the amount of supply goes up or down on its own depending on the Demand Shift, but the products you create will add more to the supply.

I think the strategy is to craft High and Very High popularity products in general, but start with the short duration products to build your groove, then end with long duration products to get huge profits (because you let the supply drop lower). We'll see in the coming days once there's more data.