This is a bit more speculative. I think they didn't believe it was actually a systemic problem until well into Shadowbringers. There were also some budgetary shenanigans during ShB development.
Probably had to prove to their bosses that a supply issue really existed, how bad it was, and that the current system couldn't handle it without a massive hardware investment. Keep in mind that all worlds have an identical configuration. The amount of wards needed to meet the demand on the largest worlds would go to waste on the smallest. If nothing else a more flexible way to allocate plots would be needed to keep their costs in line.If they know the server code is inefficient, why would they double down on a system that only magnifies that inefficiency instead of moving toward a new system without those problems?
Aside: I don't believe the intention of the lottery was to fix housing supply. I think it was meant as a measure to cut down on auto-clickers and RMT primarily and address complaints about how unhealthy placard camping was as a distant 2nd. The irony of the lottery is that it gives the players the ability to collect much finer-grained demand statistics.
Adding a new housing system is a multi-expansion project and as such that makes it very expensive. If that work helps improve the instancing infrastructure I think it would actually help reduce the amount of server resources they need to dedicate to each world. Trading short-term costs for long term savings is a great argument when it comes down to hammering out budgets. Even better if you can spin that work as a new feature...
The hope is that IS comes with a better way to manage population scaling. IMO it would be pointless to develop the feature on the current architecture. I may have a bit more faith in Square's abilities here than is healthy but so far XIV's team has exceeded my expectations for a game developer.If instance server capacity is the problem, then Island Sanctuary should only be making things worse because it's now going to be every single character (not just player) with their own instance. It's not going to be a solution for the house problem because it doesn't address the reasons why most players want a house in the first place.
If I had to fault anything I think they keep their plans way to close to the vest than they should be. Let the whiners whine, they'll never be happy.
Seen it a few times during the first (and maybe second) lottery results period when tons of people were decorating their new space. That was always going to be temporary. Now that wards are back to being ghost towns the resource allocation can handle it.People keep talking about not being able to get into houses at the start of Endwalker (can't speak to that myself, I had zero problems getting into my house and apartments) but that was an isolated incident. Every time there's been a problem with accessing instances (Raubahn EX), SE has moved quickly to fix the issue. If it was truly a server capacity issue instead of a hiccup in code or an optimization problem, it would take weeks for the access to get fixed instead of hours (even Raubahn EX was fixed in less than 2 days).



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