My Infographic of the Results of the Latest Private Housing Lottery

[Pankzers]

Sorry for the large size!

I made this off of data I collected from the Second round of the Private Housing Lottery on Sargatanas.

I tracked data from the first round of the lottery for private sales as well. I approximated that 2595 individuals took part in the first round, competing for the 360 housing plots. Between rounds 1 and 2, we saw a 18.34% decrease in participants. 360 of that decrease were explained by winning the prior round, but 116 seem to be lost demand. Additionally, between rounds 1 and 2, the average chance of success decreased by 7.36%, from an average of 11.8%. Meanwhile, the available houses had decreased from 360 to 94, a remarkable 73.9% decrease in supply.

It is my assessment, that demand is far outstripping supply. If even 50% of participants did not own a home, Square Enix would need to add an additional 4 Wards to each Housing Zone. Assuming that the demand is genuine, they would need to add an additional 7 Wards to each zone to meet demand. While a lot of housing is contained in the FC Wards currently, there simply is not enough houses present to fulfill demand in any way. Finally, the demand for this housing is not declining fast enough with each lottery round, and supply is not keeping up with demand.

Minor corrections:
Bidders are the same thing as Participants.

[Tirian_Strider]

Thank you for posting this! It's insane to think that this isn't even a high pop server and the chances of getting a house are that low... I'm scared to see what the other servers are like.

[hydralus]

Funnily enough the small house across from the one I bid on in the FC area didn't get a single bid. Lots of FC smalls are left, too. People had lots of time to make their own dummy FC and get a house so I figured there'd be more competition. But judging by the housing bids, I guess people just don't want a small.

[Elesh]

Funnily enough the small house across from the one I bid on in the FC area didn't get a single bid. Lots of FC smalls are left, too. People had lots of time to make their own dummy FC and get a house so I figured there'd be more competition. But judging by the housing bids, I guess people just don't want a small.

Ya, they definitely overdid it on the FC side of things. My HOPE(and I don't have evidence of this it's just something that would make sense to me) is that they did this so they can accurately gauge the exact need for FC housing so they can gradually strike a better middle ground where FCs can find houses easily but there's still a good amount of personal housing... but based off of what they've said in the past, I think they just see personal housing as unimportant and don't care about the people who see it as their end-game...

[deeto]

It never made sense to me how scarce and cheap these plots are if we look at the demand.

[Pankzers]

Ya, they definitely overdid it on the FC side of things. My HOPE(and I don't have evidence of this it's just something that would make sense to me) is that they did this so they can accurately gauge the exact need for FC housing so they can gradually strike a better middle ground where FCs can find houses easily but there's still a good amount of personal housing... but based off of what they've said in the past, I think they just see personal housing as unimportant and don't care about the people who see it as their end-game...

I would normally agree that they must not consider personal housing important, except they literally list it as one of six side-activities players can experience in this game. At-least, if you assume they don't mean you can experience housing only as part of an FC.

[TrainDubs]

I feel like the actual solution to this is just end private housing. People who already have one can keep one but there's just no way they'll ever be able to meet this demand.

[Xerkrosis]

I feel like the actual solution to this is just end private housing. People who already have one can keep one but there's just no way they'll ever be able to meet this demand.

Hello private FCs!

[TrainDubs]

Hello private FCs!

A good point. I'm really not sure what the solution is. Maybe have FCs be non-instanced with wards and roll all private housing into an instanced system? It's just so clear that unless they're willing to spend hundreds of millions on servers just for housing there's no way they can meet the demand.

[Rolder50]

A good point. I'm really not sure what the solution is. Maybe have FCs be non-instanced with wards and roll all private housing into an instanced system? It's just so clear that unless they're willing to spend hundreds of millions on servers just for housing there's no way they can meet the demand.

Pretty simple, just put out an instanced housing system that goes alongside the current system. People who want the neighborhood feel can still compete for those plots, people who don't and just want a house to decorate can have an instanced house. Also, if you provide instanced housing, there would be less competition / demand for the ward plots as well.