The difficulty curve in the game has... problems...

[Packetdancer]

From the outside looking in at current Savages that is just not something that happens. If you are at a wall, you are at a wall until the next expansion comes out and you can so heavily outgear it as to trivialize it. The number off pass/fail mechanics with instant death in the current raids makes overgearing meaningless in terms of difficulty reduction.

Except overgearing stuff does make a difference. If you are all in the minimum gear for a fight, yes, a couple of deaths can be a huge problem. If your group has more gear than the fight requires, though, then a death or two... or five ...doesn't necessarily preclude a clear.

Yes, there are a lot of pass/fail mechanics where it's instant death for the one failing; there are fewer where it's pass/fail where failure means a wipe. (P4S phase 2 is a notable exception, since you pretty much do need everyone up to do the mechanics. But P4S phase 2 is also, y'know, the final fight of the tier, so...)

Just looking at p2s alone (the one I would like to do for a couple glam pieces) there are 4 or 5 "screw up and die / screw up and wipe" mechanics alone.

Honestly, I can think of only really one mechanic in P2S where one player failing it mechanically can cause an instant party wipe: Predatory Avarice. Yes, there are places where a tank can wipe the party (by not being in the Coherence stack, or by dropping a tankbuster on the party), or a healer can do so (by failing to heal folks up sufficiently before unavoidable damage), but that's true in every fight.

It's possible for a tank to wipe an alliance raid if they're really determined.(Please stop spinning Mr. Angry Eyeball in WoD, tanks.)

But in terms of mechanical execution? Someone dying in Kampeos Harma (e.g. the sewer-horse's limit cut) doesn't mean a wipe. Someone dying just before Channeled Overflow does usually mean someone else will die, but not necessarily that the party will wipe.

The only place I can think of where a failure of a mechanic in P2S is a guaranteed wipe is if the DPS who should run off to the side during Predatory Avarice instead stacks with the party, thus blasting everyone else into the death wall.

I mean, there are demonstrably mechanics -- especially in the second half of P4S -- where if someone's down it can mean a party wipe. But you'd be surprised what you can limp through with well-geared DPS, determined healers, or a well-timed healer LB3.

So regardless of gear, if you can't get it right every single time you have little to no chance of success. Maintaining that level of concentration and attention for hours upon hours of prog with low probability of success -since everyone else in every group you join must also be performing at the same level- is so prohibitive (IMO) as to make engaging with it seem like an insurmountable task.

I promise you this isn't true. I have seen more than a few clears in PF which aren't even in the same timezone as "got everything right".

*quiet healer PTSD noises*

Especially considering that the only people doing at this point are the people who haven't been able to clear it in the 4 months since it was released. Again, making the likelihood of success, even if you can eventually do the mechanics, essentially zero in my view.

There are still plenty of folks doing the tier, at least on my data center; I admit I can't speak for yours. But there are people gearing up alt jobs, people gearing up alt characters... sure, many of those are weekly reclear parties, but there's also people running learning parties. I know, because I'm one of those people!

I have nothing I need from P3S any longer, but I'm putting together a teaching PF group for it tomorrow. Some friends haven't gotten past adds in the fight with their static, so I figure a teaching party gives them a chance to learn a bit further (and for others interested in learning to do so). And ones I've done previously for fights in this tier have gone well.

I also often see prog parties for fights earlier in the tier in PF, because there are people who only just got to endgame and who still want to do the fights. Heck, when folks aren't going for a two-chest clear, I'll often join ones I see over the weekend, to try to help.

To go back to the first line of your post...

From the outside looking in at current Savages that is just not something that happens.

I won't lie, I looked at savage the same way before I started on endgame content. (This is my third tier, for reference; I started as a shiny new baby raider in the second Eden tier.)

Now, while I say you're overestimating the difficulty, I will also admit that casual content did not prepare me for savage; historieancienne and others (including you) are correct that there's a little bit of a weird ramp up from casual content into on-level extremes, and thence on into savage. I definitely struggled at first; it wasn't like I queued in and it all just... clicked and I was clearing content.

(Put bluntly, I was not good.)

But the thing is, that was almost more a matter of being intimidated by savage and getting in my own head to the point I got flustered than it was due to savage actually being some sort of insurmountable challenge which only the best-of-the-best can tackle. I mean, I'm definitely not the best of the best, but I'm still perfectly capable of clearing savage content.

Yes, you may struggle a bit at first; mechanics in savage are faster than in other content, with less warning, and stiffer penalties. But there is still a lot of leeway, more than you seem to think, and you absolutely do not need to be some image of perfection who never missteps in order to clear savage.

If you want to do savage, I promise you, you almost certainly can. And if you're having trouble finding groups to do it with in PF, a post in /r/FFXIVRECRUITMENT over on Reddit can probably help you find like-minded souls also trying to get into savage. (Or even experienced raiders done with the tier who enjoy teaching the fights.)

Literally anyone who has done any previous Savage content before is lightyears ahead of people just starting. This is where the problem/disconnect fundamentally lies IMO. Not only do you need to wrap your brain around the mechanics of a specific raid boss you first have to wrap your brain around how Savages in general work and how completely unforgiving they are to even a single mistake.

Whether or not savage is a daunting task, I will note that there are still options to get started. My FC has a static (with a roster that tends to shift from tier to tier) called the Rookie Raiders, or the "Rooks" for short.

The Rooks basically exist for folks in the FC who want to get a start on savage; experienced raiders will step in and help the Rooks get started on a tier -- standing in as a member for a while and helping to raid-lead -- and help provide guidance even after stepping away to let one of the new Rooks take lead. Generally once a tier ends, that set of Rooks feel more confident in savage and go on to other statics; a new roster of Rooks eventually coalesces, and the experienced raiders -- including former Rooks -- will be there to help the next set.

The Rooks have been around since early Shadowbringers; I got my own start in savage as one of the original Rooks, when we first started this up. (And I acted as raid-leader/mentor to one of the later incarnations.) At least two entire statics have started with former Rooks as their founding members. It's been a good lower-stress way for folks to get a feel for savage.

I'll bet that if you reach out on /r/FFXIVRECRUITMENT -- or find the appropriate Discord for your DC's raid community, or look around in your DC channels on the Balance, or whatever -- you'll find others who are also interested in starting with savage. Find a mentor or two willing to provide advice, and I suspect you could create your own Rooks.

[Issaella]

Then perhaps it is time to stop clinging to experiences in other MMOs and pretend they apply to everything?
Because that seems to be your real issue: you made some experiences with something that can losely be compared elsewhere and now applying it to something else without having practical experience and despite everything several experienced people told you and refuse to acknowledge that maybe different games have different approaches and that they can *gasp* even work...

So basically you are saying that I should take what you say at face value despite every experience I've had over 20y of playing MMOs. What you are trying to convince me of is 180* from anything I have experienced. I really can't believe you have seen people with no Savage experience PF clears in any kind of reasonable time frame or at the very most you could count them on one hand. Not without considerable help from a FC or multiple experienced players.

EDIT - I encountered one of you magical, "fresh prog, looking for help, advice welcome" PF parties a while ago and decided to keep my eye on it while doing other things. It opened with 2 people, after 45 minutes it had 4 people (1 tank, 3 DPS), it evaporated into aether when the 60 minute time was reached with 5 people (1 tank, 4 DPS) and wasn't relisted. So I find it rather hard to believe even finding a prog group to start from scratch can be done without a massive time investment of just sitting around and waiting this late in the tier.

Welcoming help is not the same as expecting a carry. I've seen more carries in clear parties than in practice from start parties - the people in the latter are generally very willing to learn and take corrections and advice to heart.
If you don't want to create a PF without extensive experience with Savage raiding that is your decision.
But don't assume others can't have success just because they didn't do it your way.

Welcoming and not having any idea what you are doing and expecting someone else to lead is absurd. Don't assume just because you've seen it happen successfully means it happens regularly or isn't exceedingly rare. Like I said in a previous post I can't even assume baseline competency/experience doing Unreal clears on my alt some weeks. I would assume it would be that x10 in any kind of Savage prog in the PF unless I get exceedingly lucky.

Except overgearing stuff does make a difference. If you are all in the minimum gear for a fight, yes, a couple of deaths can be a huge problem. If your group has more gear than the fight requires, though, then a death or two... or five ...doesn't necessarily preclude a clear.

Yes, there are a lot of pass/fail mechanics where it's instant death for the one failing; there are fewer where it's pass/fail where failure means a wipe. (P4S phase 2 is a notable exception, since you pretty much do need everyone up to do the mechanics. But P4S phase 2 is also, y'know, the final fight of the tier, so...)

...

Honestly, I can think of only really one mechanic in P2S where one player failing it mechanically can cause an instant party wipe: Predatory Avarice. Yes, there are places where a tank can wipe the party (by not being in the Coherence stack, or by dropping a tankbuster on the party), or a healer can do so (by failing to heal folks up sufficiently before unavoidable damage), but that's true in every fight.

Any death is a huge drop to success chance, multiple deaths mean you might as well wipe and start over unless you are outgearing it by 20+ ilvls from what I've read.

Just from memory of watching clear videos and looking at the wiki:
Spoken/winged Cataract - misjudge/misread = death regardless of gear (I have a hell of a time seeing the head orientation to the body in normal)
Predatory Avarice - Misjudge = guaranteed wipe, regardless of gear
Channeling Overflow - Not fast enough to find your partner/off even a little = 2 guaranteed dead regardless of gear.
Kampeos Karma - mistake = wipe, 2 hits are not survivable at any gear level
Tainted Flood + Channeled Overflow - mistake = wipe regardless of gear
All of those are repeated, most of them in combination, any failure at minimum = death, more likely a wipe.

So assuming all that, how exactly does overgearing at all help to have an easier time with the mechanics? The only thing is seems to help with is unavoidable damage. The avoidable damage is such that most if not all mistakes mean death/wipe regardless of gear level. So again, even a single mistake on any one of those over a 15 minute fight reduces your chance of clearing to virtually nil.